Clippings 2016

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ghariton
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Clippings 2016

Post by ghariton »

News you can use:
International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland has announced $50 million in new funding for small businesses looking to export their goods.

Under the CanExport program, the federal government will reimburse up to 50 per cent of any spending between $10,000 and $100,000 by companies seeking to expand their overseas trade.

Businesses with fewer than 250 employees and annual revenue between $200,000 and $50 million will be able to offset the costs of travel, trade fairs, market research and other expenses related to exports.
I used to do a fair bit of consulting work in Latin America in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Maybe I should go down to Argentina in, say, February, to see what my old contacts are up to. I just need a couple of associates to get our annual billings in Canada up to $200,000, and then it's junket time for us.

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Re: Clippings 2016

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ghariton wrote: I just need a couple of associates to get our annual billings in Canada up to $200,000, and then it's junket time for us.
George you are so bad (at least in theory)!
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Re: Clippings 2016

Post by OnlyMyOpinion »

Some interesting numbers from the latest ATB Investor Beat survey (n=1024):
- 22% of Albertans have had a salary freeze, 19% have had a job loss, 61% have reduced spending
- 26% of Albertans age 18-54 follow stock market news at least weekly, compared to 49% of those age 55+ (59% of men, 34% of women)
- 34% of those age 18-34 have a financial adviser, 41% of those age 35-54, and 56% of those age 54+
- 40% of those age 35-54 are not sure what fees they pay
- 48% of Albertans are behind on their retirement savings goals
Not sure what to make of these stats though, I'm surprised for example that only ~41% in Oct. considered oil prices and the value of the Cdn dollar to be 'much worse than 6 mos ago'?
http://www.atb.com/SiteCollectionDocume ... an2016.pdf
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Re: Clippings 2016

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FWIW, I don't think the 41% number (worse than 6 months previous) is suprising. Oil prices had already crashed in the last half of 2014 reaching lows in the 4Q14. IOW, the ice cold shower/shock factor on oil prices had already occurred. Less attention would have been paid to the sliding loonie when jobs are at stake.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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A good Sunday morning read -- You’re obsessed with outcomes. Here’s why attention to process pays off. - The Washington Post
Barry Ritholtz wrote:Process is simply the methodology used to accomplish an undertaking. It could be a simple checklist or a complex systematic approach. Process focuses on the specific actions that must be taken, regardless of the results.

Outcome is the result; it could be due to skill, luck, intelligence or many other random factors. At the end of the day, outcome is who won or who lost the game, how many planes landed safely, what stocks went up or down and what surgical patients lived or died.

<snip>

Imagine you are watching two people in a coin-flipping contest. One of them flips 10 heads in a row; the other’s are more random — heads, tails, tails, heads, tails, etc. Are you willing to bet a substantial sum that the first flipper’s next toss will be heads? If you said yes, you are outcome focused.
Back more than a few years ago I'll confess that I was outcome focused, scanning the year-end mutual fund results and picking from the previous years winners. Experience and FWF has definitely educated me on the importance of process, having a plan (investment policy statement) that I follow and then measure and accept the outcome that follows. I cannot remember the last time I checked on last years winners and losers. The air pockets that the financial markets have been recently experiencing have been a good reminder to stay the course and just execute the plan.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Canadian Business did a great piece on the fall of Target in Canada

It's just gives a picture of just what a hot mess Target's ambitions and launch in Canada truly was.

There are so many lessons to take away from this epic failure.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Peculiar_Investor wrote:Experience and FWF has definitely educated me on the importance of process, having a plan (investment policy statement) that I follow and then measure and accept the outcome that follows. ..
My Masters degree was in Process Engineering. Once we decided what outcomes we wanted, we focused on process that would increase the likelihood of the preferred outcome. I used that learning all my professional life. Still do. :thumbsup:
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Morgan Housel wonders why pessimism sounds so much smarter than optimism
"For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell," historian Deirdre N. McCloskey told the New York Times this week.

It's hard to argue. Despite the record of things getting better for most people most of the time, pessimism isn't just more common than optimism, it also sounds smarter. It's intellectually captivating, and paid more attention to than the optimist who is often viewed as an oblivious sucker.
I think that the phenomenon is widespread here too. I'm certainly guilty of it.

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Re: Clippings 2016

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I suspect it's a survival characteristic-the caveman who assumed there was a bear in the cave would tend to live longer!
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Re: Clippings 2016

Post by Flaccidsteele »

I've never considered myself optimistic nor pessimistic. I consider myself to be opportunistic.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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email wrote:These tips are certainly good advice, but not always so easy. Certainly something to strive for.

Some of us have reached our golden years, and some of us have not. But these suggestions should be read by Everone !!. They have been collected from many a senior, each with his or her own piece of advice. Some you know, some may surprise you, and some will remind you of what's important. So read well, share with your loved ones, and have a great day and a great life!

1. It's time to use the money you saved up. Use it and enjoy it. Don't just keep it for those who may have no notion of the sacrifices you made to get it. Remember there is nothing more dangerous than a son or daughter-in-law with big ideas for your hard earned capital. Warning:
This is also a bad time for an investment, even if it seems wonderful or fool-proof. They only bring problems and worries and this is a time for you to enjoy some peace and quiet.

2. Stop worrying about the financial situation of your children and grandchildren, and don't feel bad spending your money on yourself.
You've taken care of them for many years, and you've taught them what you could. You gave them an education, food, shelter and support. The responsibility is now theirs to earn their own money.

3. Keep a healthy life, without great physical effort. Do moderate exercise (like walking every day), eat well and get your sleep. It's easy to become sick, and it gets harder to remain healthy. That is why you need to keep yourself in good shape and be aware of your medical and physical needs. Keep in touch with your doctor, get tested even when you're feeling well. Stay informed.

4. Always buy the best, most beautiful items for your significant other. The key goal is to enjoy your money with your partner. One day one of you will miss the other, and the money will not provide any comfort then, enjoy it together.

5. Don't stress over the little things. You've already overcome so much in your life. You have good memories and bad ones, but the important thing is the present. Don't let the past drag you down and don't let the future frighten you. Feel good in the now. Small issues will soon be forgotten.

6. Regardless of age, always keep love alive. Love your partner, love life, love your family, love your neighbor and remember: "A man is not old as long as he has intelligence and affection."

7. Be proud, both inside and out. Don't stop going to your hair salon or barber, do your nails, go to the dermatologist and the dentist, keep your perfumes and creams well stocked. When you are well-maintained on the outside, it seeps in, making you feel proud and strong.

8. Don't lose sight of fashion trends for your age, but keep your own sense of style. There's nothing worse than an older person trying to wear the current fashion among youngsters. You've developed your own sense of what looks good on you - keep it and be proud of it. It's part of who you are.

9. ALWAYS stay up-to-date. Read newspapers, watch the news. Go online and read what people are saying. Make sure you have an active e-mail account and try to use some of those social networks. You'll be surprised which old friends you'll meet. Keeping in touch with what is going on and with the people you know are important.

10. Respect the younger generation and their opinions. They may not have the same ideals as you, but they are the future, and will take the world in their direction. Give advice, not criticism, and try to remind them of yesterday's wisdom that still applies today.

11. Never use the phrase: "In my time". Your time is now. As long as you're alive, you are part of this time. You may have been younger, but you are still you now, having fun and enjoying life.

12. Some people embrace their golden years, while others become bitter and surly. Life is too short to waste your days on the latter. Spend your time with positive, cheerful people, it'll rub off on you and your days will seem that much better. Spending your time with bitter people will make you older and harder to be around.

13. Do not surrender to the temptation of living with your children or grandchildren (if you have a financial choice, that is). Sure, being surrounded by family sounds great, but we all need our privacy. They need theirs and you need yours. If you've lost your partner (our deepest condolences), then find a person to move in with you and help out. Even then, do so only if you feel you really need the help or do not want to live alone.

14. Don't abandon your hobbies. If you don't have any, make new ones.
You can travel, hike, cook, read, dance. You can adopt a cat or a dog, grow a garden, play cards, checkers, chess, dominoes, golf. You can paint, volunteer at an NGO or just collect certain items. Find something you like and spend some real time having fun with it.

15. Even if you don't feel like it, try to accept invitations.
Baptisms, graduations, birthdays, weddings, conferences. Try to go.
Get out of the house, meet people you haven't seen in a while, experience something new (or something old). But don't get upset when you're not invited. Some events are limited by resources, and not everyone can be hosted. The important thing is to leave the house from time to time. Go to museums, go walk through a field. Get out there.

16. Be a conversationalist. Talk less and listen more. Some people go on and on about the past, not caring if their listeners are really interested. That's a great way of reducing their desire to speak with you. Listen first and answer questions, but don't go off into long stories unless asked to. Speak in courteous tones and try not to complain or criticize too much unless you really need to. Try to accept situations as they are. Everyone is going through the same things, and people have a low tolerance for hearing complaints. Always find some good things to say as well.

17. Pain and discomfort go hand in hand with getting older. Try not to dwell on them but accept them as a part of the cycle of life we're all going through. Try to minimize them in your mind. They are not who you are, they are something that life added to you. If they become your entire focus, you lose sight of the person you used to be. If you have a strong belief, savor it. But don't waste your time trying to convince others. They will make their own choices no matter what you tell them, and it will only bring you frustration. Live your faith and set an example. Live true to your beliefs and let that memory sway them.

18. Laugh. Laugh A LOT. Laugh at everything. Remember, you are one of the lucky ones. You managed to have a life, a long one. Many never get to this age, never get to experience a full life. But you did. So what's not to laugh about? Find the humor in your situation.

19. Take no notice of what others say about you and even less notice of what they might be thinking. They'll do it anyway, and you should have pride in yourself and what you've achieved. Let them talk and don't worry. They have no idea about your history, your memories and the life you've lived so far. There's still much to be written, so get busy writing and don't waste time thinking about what others might think. Now is the time to be at rest, at peace and as happy as you can be!
Could not find a source for this good advice.
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Re: Clippings 2016

Post by zeno »

Some good basic wisdom there, but this one strikes me as strangely phrased:
email wrote: 4. Always buy the best, most beautiful items for your significant other. The key goal is to enjoy your money with your partner. One day one of you will miss the other, and the money will not provide any comfort then, enjoy it together.
I certainly don't want gifts from my significant other any more. I don't think she really wants extravagant gifts from me. Our lives are already cluttered with things. If the intent here is to remember to be generous to your significant other, then I can wholeheartedly agree, but I'm more touched by simple gestures, like bringing me an espresso while I'm reading, than expensive gifts. If "the key goal is to enjoy your money with your partner", we'd both rather put it into shared experiences like travel.
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Re: Clippings 2016

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Amazing post kcowan. :thumbsup: Now if I can only get my parents to follow some of those :|
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Re: Clippings 2016

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zeno wrote:Some good basic wisdom there, but this one strikes me as strangely phrased:
email wrote: 4. Always buy the best, most beautiful items for your significant other. The key goal is to enjoy your money with your partner. One day one of you will miss the other, and the money will not provide any comfort then, enjoy it together.
I certainly don't want gifts from my significant other any more. I don't think she really wants extravagant gifts from me. Our lives are already cluttered with things. If the intent here is to remember to be generous to your significant other, then I can wholeheartedly agree, but I'm more touched by simple gestures, like bringing me an espresso while I'm reading, than expensive gifts. If "the key goal is to enjoy your money with your partner", we'd both rather put it into shared experiences like travel.
I think it is a matter of attitude. I have bought fantastic mabe pearl earrings and the "best" tennis bracelet. But I agree with you that we now longer invest in such baubles but we will spend extra to go first class in European travel. She gets her choice of car and I get my choice of electronics. It is the thought that counts.
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Re: Clippings 2016

Post by Park »

http://econompicdata.blogspot.ca/2016/0 ... rrent.html

HT to abnormal returns blog for the link. I can't copy the chart from the above link. The chart plots all quarterly forward P/Es against the forward 5-year annualized returns of both the Russell 1000 Value index and Russell 1000 Growth index going back to the 1979 Russell inception of each.

My greatest fear as an investor is prolonged bear markets. The value index had 12 5 years returns below 0%. The growth index had 19.

The worst return for value is a single return of minus 5%. Growth had 10 5 year returns of minus 5% or lower, including 2 lower than minus 10%.




The Russell 1000 is the largest 1000 stocks in the USA, with the smallest having a market cap of $US1.8 billion. The Russell 1000 value index has 689 stocks out of the 1000 stocks. The Russell growth index has 644 stocks out of the 1000 stocks. Turnover for both is in the 18-20% range.

The top ten holdings in each index are slightly more than 24% of each index, so there's likely some market cap weighting.

For the Russell 1000 index, stocks are ranked by their adjusted book-to-price ratio (B/P), their I/B/E/S forecast medium-term growth (2 yr) and sales per share historical growth (5 yr). These rankings are converted to standardized units, where the value variable represents 50% of the score and the two growth variables represent the remaining 50%. They are then combined to produce a composite value score (CVS). Stocks are then ranked by their CVS, and a probability algorithm is applied to the CVS distribution to assign growth and value weights to each stock. In general, a stock with a lower CVS is considered growth, a stock with a higher CVS is considered value and a stock with a CVS in the middle range is considered to have both growth and value characteristics, and is weighted proportionately in the growth and value index. Stocks are always fully represented by the combination of their growth and value weights; e.g., a stock that is given a 20% weight in a Russell value index will have an 80% weight in the corresponding Russell growth index.

Price/book on the value index is 1.8, and for the growth index is 5.6. The respective PE ratios are 18.9 and 23.9.

So both indices are large and mid cap stocks with about 50% overlap between the indices; it looks like there's some market cap weighting. The metrics used to define growth and value would probably be considered suboptimal for quantitative value investing. Price/book does work as a value metric, but usually when I see a study of value metrics, a value composite of several metrics gives better results. I haven't seen a study whether growth or sales predict stocks results well.

The purpose of the last paragraph is to point out that the difference in value characteristics of the two indices is not great. Despite that, there is a noticeable difference in exposure to poor 5 year returns in the last 36 years.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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A really good analysis by David Rosenberg on the real driver behind the current equity market malaise. Rosenberg: Here's the real reason stocks and oil are getting pummelled in tandem.
There seems to be a tight positive correlation now between oil and the stock market whereas in the past the relationship was inverse – in past cycles, lower oil prices were considered a bullish factor for equities but now it is the action in the stock market that has led so many to believe that a recession is around the corner. (Never mind that the stock market has “predicted” 27 of the past 11 recessions!)

But the link between oil and the stock market is actually less about fundamentals and more about fund flows – and what I am talking about specifically is the activity of global sovereign wealth funds.

At last count, there were seven oil-dependent countries that control nearly $4-trillion (U.S.) of assets (54 per cent of the global tally). These wealth funds channelled their petrodollars across the world’s equity markets during the bull run in oil, which is why there was a tight positive link between crude and stock prices.

This movie is now running backward.
More interesting to me is that we are potentially seeing a dress rehearsal of what may happen when Boomers begin to withdraw funds from investment accounts to fund retirement. This is only beginning now as the oldest of that cohort are 70. This will ramp up considerably over the next 15 years until there is enough attrition to reach some sort of balance. Once again, Japan offers some instruction as the demographic is considerably older than NA.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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scomac wrote:More interesting to me is that we are potentially seeing a dress rehearsal of what may happen when Boomers begin to withdraw funds from investment accounts to fund retirement. This is only beginning now as the oldest of that cohort are 70. This will ramp up considerably over the next 15 years until there is enough attrition to reach some sort of balance. Once again, Japan offers some instruction as the demographic is considerably older than NA.
I agree to some extent. Japan has a somewhat unique problem in that it is in denial with respect to culture and immigration. They wlll implode if they stay on their current 'racist' track (as could China in 20 years notwithstanding recent rescinding of the one child policy). NA at least is accepting immigration albeit not in enough numbers.....yet. Still, there are less children being born globally than there was 30 years ago so one should expect lower global GDP growth going forward.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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AltaRed wrote:
scomac wrote:More interesting to me is that we are potentially seeing a dress rehearsal of what may happen when Boomers begin to withdraw funds from investment accounts to fund retirement. This is only beginning now as the oldest of that cohort are 70. This will ramp up considerably over the next 15 years until there is enough attrition to reach some sort of balance. Once again, Japan offers some instruction as the demographic is considerably older than NA.
I agree to some extent. Japan has a somewhat unique problem in that it is in denial with respect to culture and immigration. They wlll implode if they stay on their current 'racist' track (as could China in 20 years notwithstanding recent rescinding of the one child policy). NA at least is accepting immigration albeit not in enough numbers.....yet. Still, there are less children being born globally than there was 30 years ago so one should expect lower global GDP growth going forward.
With all due respect immigration has nothing to do with it. It will be a fund flows problem. Retirees have the most assets invested and as they begin withdrawal the succeeding generations, immigrant or otherwise will need to be investing at a rate equal to retiree withdrawal just to keep things even. If that doesn't happen then the inevitable multiple compression will be upon us as we have a supply/demand imbalance. In fact, it will be a fait accompli as the demographic distribution guarantees this eventuality.

If we are facing suppressed global GDP growth and multiple compression due to demographic trends then the ONLY way clear is to raise the standard of living of the lowest common denominators globally to attempt to make up for the short fall. We are working towards this end via globalization, but it is a long slow road that is only beginning to bare fruit in terms of increased consumer demands in developing markets.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Immigrants coming here will likely do better financially than had they stayed in their home countries, i.e. they will raise their standard of living. They will then be investing more here as Canadians and USians than they otherwise would, and potentially in Cdn stocks. That will help to shore up demand from the boomers cashing in their portfolios. So yes, immigration to developed countries creating better opportunities increasing GDP and growth will/should make some incremental difference. Whether it is enough or not is probably unlikely.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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I suspect that, for the next quarter century anyway, North Americans will be living off the savings of Chinese and Indian workers. Eventually they will become rich and will want to spend/consume in their turn. By then automation will have replaced workers in all sorts of sectors, and will produce lots of "stuff" -- and even services -- at very low cost, for everyone. The problem will then be that there will be very few jobs, so how will people get enough buying power to purchase those very cheap goods? Gigantic welfare state, here we come.

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Re: Clippings 2016

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History has shown that the world has a habit to evolve in an unpredicted manner. Think about predictions about the 2000s made in the 1970s.

Personally I'm just eager to discover what the future has in reserve for us. I think that there are lots of awesome improvements ahead, like we've had over the last decades. Just think about the mere existence of forums like FWF and the Bogleheads, and all the extraordinary amount of knowledge available through a simple Google search on a mobile phone!

All I know is the the world and society will change, as it has always done. Will stock markets fare well or bad? I don't know; that's why I diversify my portfolio with bonds.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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For those of us with a charitable bent this is a bit disconcerting if it applies to Canadian charities too
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... gn=DM85233
I'm not sure I agree that government involvement with a charity is necessarily a bad thing ,after all we don't object to the long standing tax credit for donations ,but if true this seems a bit extreme :shock:
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Just idly speculating but when the news of the prospective new TD exchange traded funds was "leaked" in January, they mentioned the funds would be managed by "TD Asset Management Inc" Which, I think, is their "wealth management" division ? Does this mean that they might not be available to the hoi polloi that use TDDI ?

I can't really think that would be the case. They need huge economies of scale to make ETFs worthwhile as a provider, correct ? That means they will sell them to all and sundry... same as BMO, et al ?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e28075114/
"""TD Asset Management is re-entering the exchange-traded fund industry with plans to launch four new offerings for Canadian investors.

Leo Salom, executive vice-president of TD Wealth Management, announced last year the company would be launching a family of ETFs in early 2016, and, at the end of December, TD Asset Management filed a prospectus for four mandates or six new ETFs, according to a National Bank Financial ETF industry note.

The four funds are:

• TD Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF (TDB) will passively track the S&P Canada Aggregate Bond Index and will hold Canadian fixed income securities.

• TD International Equity Index ETFs (TPE and CAD-hedged THE) will passively track the S&P EPAC Ex-Korea Large MidCap Index and hold international equities. Both currency hedged and non-hedged funds will be available.

• TD S&P 500 Index ETFs (TPU and CAD-hedged THU) will passively track the S&P 500 index and invests in U.S. large-cap stocks. Both currency hedged and non-hedged funds will be available.

• TD S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (TTP) will passively track the S&P/TSX Capped Composite index and invests in Canadian stocks.

Management fees for the funds will range from 0.07 per cent to 0.18 per cent."""
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Re: Clippings 2016

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Koogie wrote:Just idly speculating but when the news of the prospective new TD exchange traded funds was "leaked" in January, they mentioned the funds would be managed by "TD Asset Management Inc" Which, I think, is their "wealth management" division ? Does this mean that they might not be available to the hoi polloi that use TDDI ?
TD Asset Management is the manager of TD mutual funds, including the e-series.
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Re: Clippings 2016

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adrian2 wrote:
Koogie wrote:Just idly speculating but when the news of the prospective new TD exchange traded funds was "leaked" in January, they mentioned the funds would be managed by "TD Asset Management Inc" Which, I think, is their "wealth management" division ? Does this mean that they might not be available to the hoi polloi that use TDDI ?
TD Asset Management is the manager of TD mutual funds, including the e-series.
And therefore the manager of the new ETFs. Thought as much.
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