FT writers offer their forecasts for the year ahead, from the oil price to Putin’s next moves
Nothing on Canada.
This is a hazardous enterprise, of course. Looking back at last year’s essay in New Year forecasting, there were a few predictions we would rather not talk about. Chris Giles said the Bank of England would raise interest rates in 2014. Simon Kuper predicted that Brazil would win the football World Cup. Clive Cookson predicted that Virgin Galactic would launch its first successful commercial flight this year.
Will the oil price drop below $50 per barrel? Yes.
Will the European Central Bank adopt full-scale quantitative easing? Yes.
Will China’s growth rate fall below 7 per cent in 2015? Yes.
Will India’s growth rate accelerate under Narendra Modi? Yes, but ...
Will this be the year that bitcoin and other crypto currencies collapse? No.
In personal technology, will 2015 be the year of wearables? No.
After a lackluster year for the global economy, growth is set to pick up steam in 2015 amid a strengthening outlook for the U.S. and emerging markets, according to the World Bank.
The global economy is forecast to expand by 3 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2016, up from an estimated 2.6 percent in 2014, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday.
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Emerging markets are expected to grow 4.8 percent in 2015 and 5.3 percent next year, up from 4.4 percent last year.
For advanced economies, the outlook remains mixed, with activity in the U.S. and the U.K. gathering momentum, while the recovery in the euro area and Japan is feeble.
The U.S. and U.K. economies are set to expand 3.2 percent and 2.9 percent this year, rising from 2.4 percent and 2.6 percent last year, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, economic growth in the euro zone and Japan will rise to 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent from 0.8 and 0.2 percent last year.