Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Recommended reading, economic debates, predictions and opinions.
sydney2
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 949
Joined: 05 Sep 2005 19:35
Location: Burlington Ontario

Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by sydney2 »

I just read some bits and pieces of this book he has written, in which he stated 2/3 of Americans will lose everything...that this crash will be worse than the depression. Buy his book and he will tell you how to protect yourself. I haven't read much about this author. Any opinions on the future and this article.
User avatar
kcowan
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 16033
Joined: 18 Apr 2006 20:33
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by kcowan »

Schiff is a perma-bear who sells books and subscriptions for a living.
For the fun of it...Keith
sydney2
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 949
Joined: 05 Sep 2005 19:35
Location: Burlington Ontario

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by sydney2 »

I haven't read much of what he has written over the years, has he been correct in his predictions (I will do some googling of him) as I don't really pay much attention to a lot of this stuff....everybody has an opinion, but who do you believe and give relevance to and what do you put in the garbage. Thanks Keith for your opinion.
A1Stocktrader
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 130
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 16:17

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by A1Stocktrader »

i sure hope so. i am getting tired of this hopium bullsh-t from fraud street! i have been bearish for quite some time. a friend of mine is a believer in peter, this is where i found about peter, interesting, i believe and drink peter's kook aid. spread the gospel friends, the economy is sick, markets are going to crash, there is no good news, just spinned lies from the govt, banks and fraud street. unemployment and debt is HUGE! yes, Virginia, there is no recovery.
User avatar
ghariton
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 15954
Joined: 18 Feb 2005 18:59
Location: Ottawa

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by ghariton »

A1Stocktrader wrote:peter's kook aid.
Sums it up nicely.
yes, Virginia, there is no recovery.
And our governments are all lying to us. Inflation is really running at about 10%, and the unemployment rate is really at 50% -- all those people are only pretending to work. (I live in Ottawa. YMMV.)

George
The juice is worth the squeeze
A1Stocktrader
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 130
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 16:17

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by A1Stocktrader »

well said, george! i concur! don't drink the harper cool-aid.
DenisD
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4081
Joined: 19 Feb 2005 01:24
Location: Calgary

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by DenisD »

I read one of his books some time after the crash. I forget the title. IIRC, he was right to be bearish. But some of his safe havens did worse than the US market.
User avatar
parvus
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 10014
Joined: 20 Feb 2005 16:09
Location: Waiting for the real estate meltdown on Rua Açores.

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by parvus »

A1Stocktrader wrote:i sure hope so. i am getting tired of this hopium bullsh-t from fraud street! i have been bearish for quite some time. a friend of mine is a believer in peter, this is where i found about peter, interesting, i believe and drink peter's kook aid. spread the gospel friends, the economy is sick, markets are going to crash, there is no good news, just spinned lies from the govt, banks and fraud street. unemployment and debt is HUGE! yes, Virginia, there is no recovery.
You're assuming there was a time when it was different? Governments lurch from war to war that they can't afford. Money-changers provide the funding hoping to make a bit of a profit. And this great beast that people call capitalism spends much of its time lumbering through disequilibrium and its menacing myrmidons, who sow fear that some few might reap. There's nothing new here, just the same old, same old -- the same as the Middle Ages. Best to light a candle and buy forgiveness ...
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen — a wit
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki Your go-to guide for financial basics
Image
Benchwarmer
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 616
Joined: 04 Dec 2010 20:39

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by Benchwarmer »

parvus wrote:There's nothing new here, just the same old, same old
So there is something to be said for living for today, where the living IS good. :D
DanH
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2174
Joined: 21 Feb 2005 14:25
Contact:

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by DanH »

I seem to recall reading that despite Schiff's accurate economic predictions before the financial crisis, his investment recommendations to benefit from this view included buying overseas stocks and to get out of treasuries. I could be wrong but that's what I remember. If that's accurate, I'm not sure his credibility is as strong as it appears to be re: investment recommendations.
User avatar
Insomniac
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2802
Joined: 29 Oct 2011 19:01
Location: Vancouver Island

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by Insomniac »

Well....
There has been no end to faulty predictions about the price of gold. You can find a summary of them here. Perhaps the most notable one was a very confident 2009 prediction from Peter Schiff, who is known for his doom and gloom views: "I don't think it's just possible -- it is highly likely gold will hit $5,000."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-solin ... 52363.html
User avatar
Mike Schimek
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2698
Joined: 04 Nov 2007 18:25
Location: Montreal, Quebec

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by Mike Schimek »

I've been following Schiff for years, he was right about gold (he's been bullish on it since 2000) and he was the lone voice being ridiculed up to the housing crash in 2008.

Gold is probably a pretty safe long term bet at these prices as it is marginally above its production cost, which will keep rising along with inflation. Schiff is right it will ultimately hit 5000 because production costs will continue to rise. It recently deflated because of a stronger US dollar and fiscal outlook, but that will probably change in coming years as Obamacare kicks in and ultimately results in a government takeover of healthcare, sending costs spiraling out of control (and service into the tank).

Gold mining stocks haven't done well in part because of inflation and in part because of the nature of mining companies. On inflation, although the price of gold has risen dramatically, mine operating costs have also inflated... Miners are reporting all in costs of > 1000/oz now. In 2000 it might have been 300. Mining costs seem to be growing at around 6-8%, which sounds like a realistic current inflation rate (these are all thrown from the hip numbers btw).

On the nature of mining companies;

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/for ... es#p418247
So the miners expand like mad when they are making money, build a lot of high cost mines, then when overcapacity hits they end up shutting some of them down and making massive write offs. Then they do it again and again and again
We are seeing it happen currently with the gold miners, recording massive write offs all over the place.

The "right" way to address this would be for a mining company to go with a counter cyclical strategy. I've only seen one attempt it; Hudbay minerals. You would need to hoard cash during the good times, forego all expansion, etc., just pile up the cash, then when prices of metals plunge and miners are selling for nothing, deploy that cash acquiring assets at that time, while they are dirt cheap and mines are shutting down. The reason none of them do this is because shareholder pressure would be in the opposite direction; during boom times they would be on management to expand and grow, and during hard times they would want management to do nothing with cash and sit safely waiting for a recovery (which would be after prices went back up and assets weren't cheap anymore). An interesting case of this is Hudbay;

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/for ... ay#p319753
Hudbay's ex-CEO had the right idea too, and got fired for it.
In that post above you can also see how Tech made an acquisition at the top of the market, in typical miner style.
Research until your head hurts then scream Banzai!!! and charge fearlessly to victory or death!
User avatar
AltaRed
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 33398
Joined: 05 Mar 2005 20:04
Location: Ogopogo Land

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by AltaRed »

Mike Schimek wrote:In that post above you can also see how Tech made an acquisition at the top of the market, in typical miner style.
Yes, but some of us are hoping they have learned a brutal lesson, not to be repeated any time soon.
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki The go-to place to bolster your financial freedom
User avatar
parvus
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 10014
Joined: 20 Feb 2005 16:09
Location: Waiting for the real estate meltdown on Rua Açores.

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by parvus »

Mike Schimek wrote:It recently deflated because of a stronger US dollar and fiscal outlook, but that will probably change in coming years as Obamacare kicks in and ultimately results in a government takeover of healthcare, sending costs spiraling out of control (and service into the tank).
Good grief, surely you're joking Mike. American healthcare costs have already spiralled so much out of control that the NYT had a front-page story on folks going to government-regulated facilities in Belgium to get a hip-replacement for $13,000, including flight and lodgings, as opposed to staying at home and paying $100,000 courtesy of the local insurance company. Belgium can't even govern itself (of course, neither can America) but ...

Where Obamacare really kicks in is not just in pooling morbidity and mortality (which is good), but in imposing "luxury taxes" on "Cadillac" healthcare plans for blue collars and white collars alike. Why are shareholders deprived of misspent earnings that no other sensible market economy countenances (most of the top up benefit plans in Canada are pay-as-you-go, rather than pooled arrangements, hence the limit on one pair of eye glasses every two years, and moreover are deducted from employee paycheques, rather than being employer tax breaks).

And it's going to hurt, as people come to realize the sources of inflation in the American healthcare system.

Which I put down for a long-term (synthetic) short.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen — a wit
Imagefiniki, the Canadian financial wiki Your go-to guide for financial basics
Image
User avatar
kcowan
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 16033
Joined: 18 Apr 2006 20:33
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by kcowan »

Mike Schimek wrote:I've been following Schiff for years, he was right about gold (he's been bullish on it since 2000) and he was the lone voice being ridiculed up to the housing crash in 2008...
I have been following him for years and concluded that he is selling his program in spite of evidence to the contrary. He talks about gold as an investment. Really? What if it were not valued in USD? Any bet on gold is a bet against the USD. Don't confuse them.

And gold miners have been an unfortunate choice. But this has to do with them being a speculation rather than a solid investment.

But he is a good perma-bear. Videos several times a week for people who choose not to read.
For the fun of it...Keith
dusty2
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 511
Joined: 11 Nov 2006 21:11
Location: burlington

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by dusty2 »

Perhaps the next financial crisis will happen when the U.S. stops borrowing about $700B/yr, as it does now. Japan just reached the $10.5 trillion deficit mark and the U.S. is at $14T, so 4-5 years years from now, when it hits $20 trillion it should be about the limit. The important information is what a person should do during a financial crisis. The answer seems to be nothing. Let everyone else panic. In the /09 collapse gold was like a deer in the headlights, not knowing which way to go. Maybe the best thing to do is to keep a cash hoard and wait for the next crash, buying when everyone's selling. Although it could be a long wait. I'd like to know what Schiff did during the \09 crash, action speaks louder than words.
User avatar
6miths
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 186
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 00:07

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by 6miths »

I just reread his contribution to the 'Little Book' series which was 'The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market Is Down'. Had to force myself to finish it. So anti-Obama/Democrats and not acknowledging at all how deregulation/laissez faire approach/foreign wars spawned the disaster. When people start talking about buying MORE guns and ammunition I start to have a bit of trouble. I try to keep an open mind (and yes anything can happen) but this is pushing it to the limits.
A1Stocktrader
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 130
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 16:17

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by A1Stocktrader »

Great read by Trump and read / video by Wiedemer at http://www.moneynews.com/Archives/Trump ... DE=103FC-1

I for one am looking forward to the crash!

Hopefully all investors are familiar with short trading, keep in mind you cannot short or margin in RRSP, RESP, TFSA accounts, such bs this is, hence I don't use them.
like_to_retire
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 5923
Joined: 27 Feb 2005 07:14
Location: Canada

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by like_to_retire »

A1Stocktrader wrote:Hopefully all investors are familiar with short trading, keep in mind you cannot short or margin in RRSP, RESP, TFSA accounts, such bs this is, hence I don't use them.
TFSA's seem like such a great idea to me.

An account that attracts no taxes, that I can remove the funds at any time without penalty is something I wish they had when I was younger.

It's such a nice shelter that I suspect eventually they'll impose a limit. It's just too good to be true. If I had my entire portfolio in a TFSA, I'd be rich.

And yet, "A1Stocktrader" thinks they're bullshit. Go figure.

ltr
A1Stocktrader
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 130
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 16:17

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by A1Stocktrader »

[quote="like_to_retire"][quote="A1Stocktrader"]Hopefully all investors are familiar with short trading, keep in mind you cannot short or margin in RRSP, RESP, TFSA accounts, such bs this is, hence I don't use them.[/quote]
TFSA's seem like such a great idea to me.

An account that attracts no taxes, that I can remove the funds at any time without penalty is something I wish they had when I was younger.

It's such a nice shelter that I suspect eventually they'll impose a limit. It's just too good to be true. If I had my entire portfolio in a TFSA, I'd be rich.

And yet, "A1Stocktrader" thinks they're bullshit. Go figure.

ltr[/quote]

To each there own. When the markets crash and you cannot short these accounts then you will know. As mentioned you cannot margin these accounts. There are also rules about moving money in and out of the accounts I mentioned, plus fees. I like the way I trade, as does my Chartered Accountant. TFSA's have been around for a few years, you should be rich by now. GLTA.
like_to_retire
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 5923
Joined: 27 Feb 2005 07:14
Location: Canada

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by like_to_retire »

A1 wrote:To each there own
So what, grammar just isn't your forte.
When the markets crash and you cannot short these accounts then you will know.
I'm waiting.
There are also rules about moving money in and out of the accounts I mentioned, plus fees.
I've had a TFSA since inception. I know that TDW doesn't charge any fees. I've never paid a cent. I suppose there are a few rules to follow, but they're rudimentary.
I like the way I trade, as does my Chartered Accountant.
OK, why are you bringing that up? Weren't we discussing why TFSA's were bullshit?
TFSA's have been around for a few years, you should be rich by now.
TFSA's began in 2009. So maximum contributions as of today are $25,500. This is rich? It's a rounding error.

ltr
A1Stocktrader
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 130
Joined: 09 Nov 2007 16:17

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by A1Stocktrader »

ltr, just saying, to each their own, glta whatever works for you. fyi, currently +1.574 % roi today trading on my margin account long on hod and hnd a few times, currently back in hnd. looking forward to the Fed talk at 2pm, put on your seatbelt, a market mover this will be. cheers. :thumbsup: ...looking forward to the crash!
User avatar
Spidey
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 4556
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 19:55
Location: Ottawa

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by Spidey »

My brother called me tonight (from Africa) in a bit of a panic. I guess he had downloaded Peter Shiff's book. I was telling him that from what I have heard that Shiff is known as a bit of a kook and a scare-monger and that you don't sell books without grabbing attention. However, my brother then asked me how the US would take control of their debt. I mentioned that the economy seemed to be improving and the debt could possibly be improved with a VAT and a couple of other suggestions such as increased gas taxes. However, as I was saying it I realized that these things were as unlikely to pass through the US political system as Obama becoming Republican. Then there is the question of the aging population which will be accompanied by increased medicare costs and pension costs.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Given the challenges, how will the US take control of the debt?

I have minimal expectations but I just ordered Shiff's book from the library - a little scare mongering is sometimes a healthy thing.
If life seems jolly rotten, then there's something you've forgotten -- and that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing. - Eric Idle
User avatar
6miths
Contributor
Contributor
Posts: 186
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 00:07

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by 6miths »

I remember as a kid reading my Uncle Jim's Mad Magazine. I think it was the folding comic on the back that ended up with a picture of a cartoon Uncle Sam trying to carry a huge stack of oversized coins like the weight of the world and the point was that with the war in Vietnam, Johnson's Great Society programme and the skyrocketing cost of oil that the country was broke beyond broke and would never recover. And yet.... What me worry? :D

Image
User avatar
Insomniac
Veteran Contributor
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 2802
Joined: 29 Oct 2011 19:01
Location: Vancouver Island

Re: Peter Schiff "The Real Crash is Coming"

Post by Insomniac »

Yes, why worry about the debt? The USA has been in debt almost continuously since it became a country.

I think a link to this has been posted in this forum previously: http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-r ... here-s-why

@Spidey: Good idea to borrow that book. Spend your money on something worthwhile like :beer:
Post Reply