Oil

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AltaRed
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Re: Oil

Post by AltaRed » 12 Oct 2017 10:03

Brazil potentially has huge reserves of what is called 'sub-salt' oil (and pre-salt oil) but essentially means below the salt layers. Much of the prolific deepwater zones in the Gulf of Mexico are also pre-salt layers which can be more than 2000 metres thick. It is expensive oil. IMO, absent a major technological breakthrough, much of this undeveloped oil will be stranded due to cost. I just don't see too many publicly traded muli-nationals getting too committed developing this stuff given many likely believe high oil prices needed to support this effort are not sustainable any more. Mexico opened up its pre-salt deepwater exploration and development not too many years ago but that may also be too little, too late as well.

My take is global oil demand may continue to creep upward to somewhere just over 100 million barrels per day before starting a gentle decline thereafter as conservation (and climate change) efforts, including EVs, changes the dynamic. What it will tail off too is anyone's guess, but I suspect the tail will be somewhere in the 50 million barrels per day range (or less) in 3-4 decades. In any event, eventual decreasing demand will keep a lid on oil prices and that will naturally strand expensive oil development. If the infrastructure is not already in place, aka the Gulf Coast and the Canadian oil sands, even Venezuela, I don't hold out much hope for Brazil's (and Mexico's) deepwater. Land based shale oil will (should) remain more economic.
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Shakespeare
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Re: Oil

Post by Shakespeare » 15 Oct 2017 11:59

New era of oil supply certainty force changes in Canadian producers’ strategies | Financial Post
The world’s current oil oversupply has been largely driven by U.S. shale oil and gas plays, Reynish said. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Canada’s largest energy customer has boosted domestic oil production from less than four million barrels per day in 2008 to 9.2 million bpd now, while gas output has risen from 67 million cubic feet per day to 89 million cf/d....

“Between US$50 and $53 WTI (per barrel) is perfect,” he said in an interview.
“A wise man should be prepared to abandon his baggage at any time.” -- R.A. Heinlein, The Door Into Summer.

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AltaRed
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Re: Oil

Post by AltaRed » 15 Oct 2017 14:12

Tsk....tsk. They are soooo far out of date. US production has again recovered essentially to its prior peak of circa 9.6 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=W
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