How Did You Do in 2017?

Asset allocation, risk, diversification and rebalancing. Pros/cons of hiring a financial advisor. Seeking advice on your portfolio?
Germack
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Germack »

Couch Potato Investor (7.5%/92.5 bonds/equity).

Networth 31.12.2016: $1,039,083 (Family NW: $1,666,701)
Networth 30.12.2017: $1,220,831 (Family NW: $2,035,393)

Increase: $181,748 (Family: $368,692)

Rate of return:13.3%
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Mordko
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Mordko »

The time-weighted 2017 return of my portfolio was 13.9% as calculated using the Bogleheads wiki's personal returns spreadsheet. The money-weighted return was 14.6%. Usually the two measures are more closely aligned but 2017 saw major inflows early on.

Portfolio's final account balances don't include December distributions of XIC and VIU which will be paid out in January.

Right now the portfolio is 100% in stock index funds via ETFs with zero allocation to bonds. Stocks are regionally allocated as follows:

-35% US
- 28% Canada
- 17% EM
- 20% Developed, outside North America.

In 2017 Emerging Markets were the top performers, followed by Developed outside NA. US stocks did less spectacularly in CAD terms due to the weak USD. TSX had the lowest growth, which was still pretty decent in a year when everything went up.

Our 15-year investment return is 9.2%. This number is distorted by 2017, which had significantly more funds in the portfolio (proceeds from the January 2017 house sale were invested in stocks). I am hoping for a 5% long term return, net of inflation.

When estimating investment return, I did not count anything outside my investment portfolio, which represents about half of our net worth. The rest of the net worth includes house and other items, some of which either will be or have already started to generate return. For example our house is a small farm, which generated $2K in year 1 (vs zero expected) but the income should be higher in the future.

The intent is to add $250K to our liquid investment portfolio and to allocate this amount to fixed income on a going forward basis. This will represent a relatively small part of our portfolio and provide a safety cushion if the markets were to turn sour at a bad time when we need cash.
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Koogie
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Koogie »

7.05% overall return.

Not bad considering my very conservative approach to life & politics investing.

The plan calls for a 40eq/60fi split. Currently sitting at 32eq/48fi/20cash. Obviously cash accumulating has been a "problem" in 2017 but plans are already in the works to start whittling away at it.

Best return by pure percentage was my US$ play money at 24.85% Pity it's only a few thousand dollars... :lol:

Largest allocation is obviously the FI which consists of multi rung GIC ladders. Current return is 3.04%
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by blackball »

Pension: +9.2%
RSP: +26.6%
Non-reg: +78.1%

Overall: +51.5%

Winners: Cdn,US and international equities, long term US treasuries, gold, short nat gas and short vix
Losers: short crude oil and USD
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by iluvnascar »

My return for 2017 was 9.68% - a portfolio that is almost 90%+ preferred shares; and the balance on a couple of bond-like ETF's.

I now have 20 years of history - average return (just a straight numerical average of the return percentage for each of the 20 years) for 20 years is 13.60%.
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Mordko
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Mordko »

blackball wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:44 Pension: +9.2%
RSP: +26.6%
Non-reg: +78.1%

Overall: +51.5%

Winners: Cdn,US and international equities, long term US treasuries, gold, short nat gas and short vix
Losers: short crude oil and USD
Can you clarify what these numbers mean? Could be time weighted return, ROI or a bunch of other things. Without some context numbers mean nothing. Thanks.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by IdOp »

Peculiar_Investor wrote: 01 Jan 2018 11:26Thanks for the correction/clarification. That's why I leave the heavy lifting to Norbert and NormR :wink:
You're welcome, and thanks for the FT link as it's nice to have that index value sooner than it appears on GlobeInvestor. It's great that Norbert and NormR track "everything", for total returns I only keep track of the TSX and FPX's.
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Shakespeare
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Shakespeare »

Preliminary estimate 7.9% on a 55% equity portfolio. XIRR 8.6% post-retirement (Nov. 98).
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by blackball »

Mordko wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:56
blackball wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:44 Pension: +9.2%
RSP: +26.6%
Non-reg: +78.1%

Overall: +51.5%

Winners: Cdn,US and international equities, long term US treasuries, gold, short nat gas and short vix
Losers: short crude oil and USD
Can you clarify what these numbers mean? Could be time weighted return, ROI or a bunch of other things. Without some context numbers mean nothing. Thanks.
Returns calculated as Ending Acct Value / (Beginning acct Value + Deposits - Withdrawals) - 1. If I exclude deposits/withdrawals the overall return is 54.7% so I would suspect that the time weighted return lies somewhere between 51.5% and 54.7%. The main driver for enhanced returns in the non-registered account is varying levels of leverage used throughout the year (2x-4x).
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Mordko
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Mordko »

blackball wrote: 01 Jan 2018 15:24
Mordko wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:56
blackball wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:44 Pension: +9.2%
RSP: +26.6%
Non-reg: +78.1%

Overall: +51.5%

Winners: Cdn,US and international equities, long term US treasuries, gold, short nat gas and short vix
Losers: short crude oil and USD
Can you clarify what these numbers mean? Could be time weighted return, ROI or a bunch of other things. Without some context numbers mean nothing. Thanks.
Returns calculated as Ending Acct Value / (Beginning acct Value + Deposits - Withdrawals) - 1. If I exclude deposits/withdrawals the overall return is
54.7% so I would suspect that the time weighted return lies somewhere between 51.5% and 54.7%. The main driver for enhanced returns in the non-registered account is varying levels of leverage used throughout the year (2x-4x).
I think you are trying to calculate ROI. Given the level of leverage, your time weighted return will be a lot less than 50%.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Londoncalling »

Posting returns from 3 separate accounts provides little info.

Ex
TFSA 10%
RRSP 20%
NON REG 50%

Total return is completely different when TFSA has 90% of portfolio compared to Non reg having 90% of portfolio.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Jungle »

XIRR (2017) was 10.67% ...about 20% bonds.

My return would have been 10.79% if pension didn't close -0.5% down??(balanced was flat that day..) very odd. But anyway, I have no control over that. Better to take the company match and say yes to crappy mutual funds.

CAGR
3 years 8.73%
5 years 12.42%
10 years 7.29%
17 years 6.84%

Combination of couch potato, mutual fund pension and CAD dividend stocks.

Not included above: RESP
XIRR (couch potato) 10.92%
CAGR
3 Year 9.98%
blackball
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by blackball »

Mordko wrote: 01 Jan 2018 16:14
blackball wrote: 01 Jan 2018 15:24
Mordko wrote: 01 Jan 2018 14:56

Can you clarify what these numbers mean? Could be time weighted return, ROI or a bunch of other things. Without some context numbers mean nothing. Thanks.
Returns calculated as Ending Acct Value / (Beginning acct Value + Deposits - Withdrawals) - 1. If I exclude deposits/withdrawals the overall return is
54.7% so I would suspect that the time weighted return lies somewhere between 51.5% and 54.7%. The main driver for enhanced returns in the non-registered account is varying levels of leverage used throughout the year (2x-4x).
I think you are trying to calculate ROI. Given the level of leverage, your time weighted return will be a lot less than 50%.
According to wiki, it is some form of dollar weighted return called the Simple Dietz return.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-weighted_return

Not sure if time weighted returns are supposed to be calculated using beginning/ending exposure or net value of a portfolio. I wasn't aware it is supposed to adjust for leverage. If it does then for sure it would be a lot lower than 50%.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Quebec »

One year XIRR: 8.9% (combination of 2 RRSPs + two TFSAs + wife's unreg)
5 year CAGR: 10.8%
10 year CAGR: 7.3%

Has been completely passively managed (ETFs and some efunds) for a few years, except a five year GIC ladder replacing most of our short bond allocation.

Target is 0% cash, 30% F.I., 70% equities (no change from last year), real allocation is always pretty close.
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farco
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by farco »

Total return 2017: +18.31% (including sales for 2017)

It's an exception because I made more transactions than usual, during this year.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Thegipper »

I have my stocks split between the USA and Canada markets 50/50. I have been tracking my returns since January 1 2009 and I have averaged 21% per annum. This past year I averaged 11.6%. I am apprehensive about 2018 but I will stay the coarse. I retired on January 1 2009 and was concerned about the sustainability of my retirement nest egg . Truth is that my nest egg is 20% larger after withdrawals then it was when I retired.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by bcjmmac »

2RRSPs, 2TFSAs, 1 unregistered. Overall average 10.5%
RRSPs did the best ~12.5%
TFSAs 9%. Unregistered 8.9%
Overall %; ETFs 50%, individual Cdn stocks 15%, fixed 15%, cash 20% (burnt offbunch of cash in Dec/new car).
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Looking back, as to keep things the same:
Flaccidsteele wrote: 01 Jan 2017 02:16 Unfortunately I do not calculate these metrics (ie. 5/10 CAGR XIRR). This is not to say that they don't have any value. Only that I don't see any value in them. In another thread, I mentioned that I only look at net worth and income so I'll stick with that.

Net worth rose above $4m CAD due to the spike in USDCAD at the end of 2015/beginning 2016, and promptly collapsed below $4m CAD as the USDCAD fell. Portfolio is very US dependent and carries currency risk. Also real estate dependent and carries real estate risk. Net worth was impacted by rising US real estate values, offset by the falling USD. No mortgages, no debt.

Passive income just shy of $200k/yr. Biggest contributors were increasing rental income and acquisition of additional US property.
Net worth in 2017 continued to be pressured by USDCAD continuing to fall to 1.25, offset by rental property value increase, rental income increase and resumption of employment income. Net worth above $4m CAD. However, majority of held assets are US.

'Passive' income over $200k/yr due to rent increase of 8-10% depending on property and location. Decided to return to work. Unfortunately I'm finding it difficult to occupy my time without working. Employment income adds another $200k/yr. Spouse also works. Household income approximately $500k/yr. All taxable as earned income.
Flaccidsteele wrote: 01 Jan 2017 02:16Hopes and dreams for 2017: US rents go higher. FED hikes regularly, BoC cuts, Canadian economy deteriorates, and USDCAD increases. If USDCAD hits 1.45+ thinking to refi properties @50% LTV and convert USD proceeds to CAD.
Hopes and dreams for 2018: US rents go higher. Fed hikes regularly, BoC cuts (seems unlikely), Canadian economy deteriorates (seems unlikely), and USDCAD increases (unknown). No longer interested in refi properties.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by StuBee »

One year XIRR of 6.1% on a 68:32 Equity:FI portfolio. I was hurt by ENB and GE as well as a strengthening CAN$. 10 year XIRR is 7.2%. Dividend income rose by about 7%.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by milton »

Londoncalling wrote: 02 Jan 2018 00:34 Posting returns from 3 separate accounts provides little info.

Ex
TFSA 10%
RRSP 20%
NON REG 50%

Total return is completely different when TFSA has 90% of portfolio compared to Non reg having 90% of portfolio.
Yeah, good point. Across the three accounts my total return works out to be 11.66% Fortunately, the TFSA was the smallest of the three.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by kcowan »

I am interested in what forex adjusted means to these results. We have 3 currencies that we care about.
USD for investments
MXN for investments and expenses, and
Euros

There are many ways to account for these. Is there any universal standard?
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Mordko
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Mordko »

Annual results are meaningless without accounting for currency fluctuation. Long term; like 20 years, there is probably little difference whether you account for currency or not. This is because markets trend up while currencies tend to move within a certain band.

For example last year US market went up ~20% in USD but only ~13% in CAD. In 2016 UK market went up a lot in the native currency but suffered a loss in CAD.

I record inflows/outlfows and total values of the portfolio in CAD, using daily exchange rates.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by AltaRed »

kcowan wrote: 03 Jan 2018 05:29 There are many ways to account for these. Is there any universal standard?
Value of foreign denominated assets should be based on exchange rate of the day, every day, as noted by Morko. Example: If one did not have a single change in their USD/CAD portfolio over 2017 of any kind, performance return would be negative since USD denominated assets would be worse at the end of 2017 than on 1/1/17. Those using spreadsheets should be able to drop in daily exchange rates in their macro, or if that seems too much, use the Bank of Canada 'monthly rates' they publish manually

Quicken gets part of it right (values of transactions), but apparently not entirely right on valuation of existing assets on dates other than transactions.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by JaydoubleU »

I'm afraid I have no sophisticated software to calculate annual returns. Also, 2017 was a hugely disruptive year, with retirement in April, a move back to Canada, and the conversion of considerable sums of yen into CAD.

What I have done since 2006 is to calculate changes in Net Worth and Expected Investment Income going forward 12 months (not including anticipated dividend increases). These are up 31% and 49% respectively.

Factoring out the anomalies, I suspect I gained around 10% total in a 100% Canadian equity portfolio. Nice returns from AQN, ECI and DIV were tempered by losses from ENB, AD and CJR.B. The former was only added mid-year, and the latter was sold late last year. Other stocks such as BCE, TRP and POW went nowhere, but did contribute 4-5% in dividends. The banks did well, and I should have gone there instead of into energy infrastructure.

If all this buzz about rising inflation and interest rates is true, I could be in for a rough ride in 2018, as I am overweight utilities. However, I am staying the course. Predictions are interesting to read but notoriously inaccurate. Following the crowd into the melt-up was a serious mistake in 1999. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -a-melt-up
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by deaddog »

JaydoubleU wrote: 04 Jan 2018 08:04 Following the crowd into the melt-up was a serious mistake in 1999.
My mistake was staying with the crowd on the way down. :)
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