How Did You Do in 2017?

Asset allocation, risk, diversification and rebalancing. Pros/cons of hiring a financial advisor. Seeking advice on your portfolio?
JaydoubleU
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by JaydoubleU »

My mistake was staying with the crowd on the way down. :)
Exactly! But I don't have the discipline of a Grantham to know if and when to go to 100% cash moments before the cliff arrives; besides, selling means giving up the income, not to mention the capital gains tax bill...
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by ig17 »

JaydoubleU wrote: 04 Jan 2018 08:04 I'm afraid I have no sophisticated software to calculate annual returns.
You don't need anything sophisticated. A simple spreadsheet does the job. Google Sheets, OpenOffice, LibreOffice are free.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by deaddog »

JaydoubleU wrote: 04 Jan 2018 08:50

Exactly! But I don't have the discipline of a Grantham to know if and when to go to 100% cash moments before the cliff arrives; besides, selling means giving up the income, not to mention the capital gains tax bill...
I'm not lucky enough to know where the cliff is. Having the option to sell is like having a safety harness to stop you on the way down. You don't have to go all the way to the bottom.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by chufinora »

For those that use the FPX indices as benchmarks (And to answer my own question) the charts and CSV file at Croft Financial Group https://www.croftgroup.com/croft_benchm ... rmance.php have now been updated to Dec 31st 2017
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by JaydoubleU »

I'm not lucky enough to know where the cliff is. Having the option to sell is like having a safety harness to stop you on the way down. You don't have to go all the way to the bottom.
I'll be counting on my utilities, pipelines, telecoms, etc to provide a bit of a parachute, and to continue paying dividends to soften the impact.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by deaddog »

JaydoubleU wrote: 04 Jan 2018 11:00 I'll be counting on my utilities, pipelines, telecoms, etc to provide a bit of a parachute, and to continue paying dividends to soften the impact.
A good plan. A portfolio of dividend growers is like owning a rental property. A nice steady income that increases as time goes by.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by ockham »

My 2017 return comes in at about 6.7% on a balanced portfolio (55/45 equity to fixed and cash) in withdrawal mode, with the equity divided about 2-1 Canada/ex-Canada.

A problem with my Canada equity holdings, all non-registered, is that of weighing lagging performance against realizing cap gains. For example, I have REI.UN (Riocan) and TRI (Thomson Reuters), both long term holds, both with embedded cap gains of 50+%, both with lagging performance and perhaps lagging prospects.

I have a sense that their status as laggards is not likely to change any time soon. Yet a sale triggers an immediate 25% cut in the value of the gain. A nice problem to have, in a way, but year-end performance review reminds me that it's a problem nevertheless.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by scomac »

ockham wrote: 04 Jan 2018 13:22 My 2017 return comes in at about 6.7% on a balanced portfolio (55/45 equity to fixed and cash) in withdrawal mode, with the equity divided about 2-1 Canada/ex-Canada.

A problem with my Canada equity holdings, all non-registered, is that of weighing lagging performance against realizing cap gains. For example, I have REI.UN (Riocan) and TRI (Thomson Reuters), both long term holds, both with embedded cap gains of 50+%, both with lagging performance and perhaps lagging prospects.

I have a sense that their status as laggards is not likely to change any time soon. Yet a sale triggers an immediate 25% cut in the value of the gain. A nice problem to have, in a way, but year-end performance review reminds me that it's a problem nevertheless.
I hear you. I have one of those laggards myself in SRU.UN (Smart REIT), but I'm not really restricted by a capital gain as I had claimed a loss against it back during the Credit Crisis of 2008. I have more or less rescued the capital loss over the years, but not particularly efficiently as a lot of that has been through the distribution. Still, I have to wonder what the future holds for this predominantly retail REIT.

AS far as realizing a taxable gain, it has been said on here before don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog. If it makes you feel any better, a 50% capital gain is 25% taxable so even at a 40% MTR only a quarter goes out the door to Ottawa. Perhaps the more pressing question is what do you use the money for? Another investment? There's a fair hurdle rate to overcome the tax. Spending is a different matter and somewhat easier to justify I find as tax often has to be paid anyway in generating income.

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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by slim »

A portfolio of 50% equities; (65% canadian, 35% outside canada.)
50% GICs Bonds Prefs (8%) and cash (8%)

Return of 8% for 2017

2.5% withdrawal for living expenses/income taxes. About to turn 65, undecided about CPP
ig17
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by ig17 »

Going back to my own post:
ig17 wrote: 31 Dec 2017 14:52 Multi-year XIRRs, all family accounts including HISAs:

3 years: 11.7%
5 years: 12.4%
6 years: 11.7%

Longer returns are not available due to poor record-keeping in the years prior to Quicken adoption.
The bolded statement is not really true. I did keep an accurate XIRR spreadsheet before I adopted Quicken in 2012. The spreadsheet goes back to portfolio inception in 1998. There is only one problem with those records: they covered registered accounts but not taxable accounts.

I think it's okay.

We didn't have any taxable investments before 2012. We did have taxable savings, earmarked for a house upgrade. At some point in 2012, we decided to stay put in our current modest home. At that point, I started to deploy taxable savings into equities. I adopted Quicken at the same time to track all investments inflows/outflows.

Long story short, I expanded my XIRR spreadsheet back to 1998. Years 1998 to 2011 cover registered accounts. Years 2012 to 2017 cover all family accounts, both tax-sheltered and taxable. To handle the transition from 2011 to 2012, I recorded a lump sum inflow on 2011/12/31, equal to the value of our taxable savings at that point. This is similar to how I would handle an inheritance or a lottery win.

And now, drumroll please... our long-term portfolio IRRs

7 years (2011-2017): 10.7%
10 years (2008-2017): 9.5%
15 years (2003-2017): 9.5%
20 years (1998-2017): 9.1%

These are money-weighted returns. Good returns in the recent years skew the long-term record.

10-, 15- and 20-year returns are virtually identical for the same reason. Early returns matter little due to small portfolio size. Recent returns overwhelm the record.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Canadian Saver »

Despite investments >15 years, I only have ~3 years of solid record keeping data. As of end of 2017 (in CAD):

1 year: 11.03%
3 year: 9.39%

Overall mix is 80/20 equities/bonds.

More granular mix, all in ETFs/Mutual Funds:
Canadian Equities: 23%
US Equities: 23.5%
International & Emerging: 23.5%
Real Estate: 10%
Canadian Bonds: 10%
Canadian Real Return Bonds: 10%
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by fireseeker »

2017 return across all accounts (except RESP, which is being spent): 6.5%
Personalized benchmark was 7.27%, so we lagged.
One issue was (and is) too much cash. Target AA is 52% equity, 40% bonds and 8% cash. (Cash is high because of three issues: 1) We run our daily banking through our investment accounts, which means we need a decent-sized float for bills and expenses; 2) I like to have some cash on hand for opportunistic buys, of which there have been few lately; 3) We have 9 accounts (plus two I manage for MIL), so it's hard to efficiently use up cash scraps and dividends.)
Currently cash is up to 14%. I don't like to market time, but I also don't like buying into the current froth. (Yes, it's a rationalization tennis match.)
Exchange rate changes also constrained 2017 returns.
Annualized returns since 2004: 6.46%
Benchmark returns since 2004: 5.97%
Happy new year to all.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by lacrosse905 »

The returns for 2017 comes from TDDI, under the performance category. We have been with TDDI since 2001 when we switched from a full service broker and went to the DIY portfolio. Like everyone else we took a big hit in 2008. We are withdrawing from the RRIF's on a monthly basis....and along with pensions, this takes care of all our spending needs for each year. The dividends from the non registered portfolio are available if we need them, we are currently about 75/25 in the non registered account.

RRIF's 9.83% - 80% equity with sprinkling of pfds, corporate bonds.
TFSA's 10.52% 100% equities
NON REGISTERED 8.73% 75/25 equities, large portion of which is invested in the 5 big banks/pfds/cash HISA's TD8150 TD8155, Equitable Bank.

When we first started out we bought stocks in banks/oil/gas/power/pipelines. Did well with the income trusts, but sold out of most of them when Jim Flaherty changed the legislation. We still hold pipelines ENB/TRP/IPL but have since bought more into the banks. TD is our largest holding. Just recently bought Laurentian Bank, we are down on that one, but we are buy and hold on most everything in the non-reg. account. We have added our Son to the TDDI account as part of estate planning and he does his own trading and works for one of the big 5.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

A number of posts have been moved to Lessons learned and mistakes made as they cover mistakes and lessons from previous years.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Bobetpine »

Koogie wrote: 01 Jan 2018 12:17
Largest allocation is obviously the FI which consists of multi rung GIC ladders. Current return is 3.04%
Not bad at all. Current 5-year mean at BMO IL is 2.40% or so.
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Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Post by Bobetpine »

Couch Potato PF (almost):
    FI (ZAG + GIC ladder) 55%
      Equities 45% (25% XAW, 13% VCN and 7% "miscellaneous" (VTI, AAPL, BIB))

      Performance (using Canadian Portfolio Manager spreadsheet 2017 Rate of Return Calculator Modified Dietz Method):

      10.24%

      Very happy, considering that I used to have a PF with a lot more risk.

      GF's PF:

      Same assets but allocation FI/equities is 65-35:

      8.17%

      Very happy with this too.

      And this is certainly in part thanks to advice that I found here.
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      Norbert Schlenker
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by Norbert Schlenker »

      ig17 wrote: 06 Jan 2018 23:04 These are money-weighted returns. Good returns in the recent years skew the long-term record.

      10-, 15- and 20-year returns are virtually identical for the same reason. Early returns matter little due to small portfolio size. Recent returns overwhelm the record.
      You're wise to realize the error possibilities in using IRR vs time weighted returns.

      My 20 year time weighted returns are about 8.5% per year. The IRR on the total portfolio is 50.1% per year. Substantial cash flows - in or out - make mincemeat of IRR calculations.
      Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by DenisD »

      I've updated my spreadsheet with some ETF, mutual fund and stock screen returns for 2017. There are 1, 5 and 10 year rolling returns. I own stock screens and fundamental index ETFs as well as cap-weighted index ETFs. The spreadsheet shows me how my alternatives compare to the conventional ETFs.

      Generally, my alternative investments have done quite well. Although, not as well as I hoped. My US small-cap screen is behind its benchmark over 10 years. Otherwise, my three screens are ahead over the latest 5 and 10 year periods. My Canadian and US large-cap screens have beat their ETF benchmark over all 5 and 10 year periods. The new Canadian small-cap screen has done well over its first two years.

      This is the first year I have 10 year numbers for all of the fundamental index ETFs. Strangely, the best outperformance is in the most efficient market, the US, and the worst underperformance is in the least efficient market, emerging markets. :wink:

      Clicking on the spreadsheet read-only link should put you in Excel Online. If you want to check the logic or select your own ETFs, you can download a copy or, if you're logged into your Microsoft account, copy it to OneDrive and edit it in Excel Online.
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by couponstrip »

      We are heading into our 12th year of this portfolio designed by reading extensively here including many book recommendations from here all those years ago:

      Equal contributions to VTI/VEA/XIC. 100% equity. Our returns were 18.7% in 2017 including dividends.

      What a run this market is having. I'll have to remember how much fun this part was when it's not fun.

      I cannot thank this community enough for contributing to my personal finance education. For fun, I watch the mutual funds our wealth management advisor had us invested in prior to becoming educated and switching to the above portfolio. The difference in the value of our portfolio if we have stuck with that (including their fees) is remarkable.
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by Norbert Schlenker »

      couponstrip wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:32 Equal contributions to VTI/VEA/XIC. 100% equity. Our returns were 18.7% in 2017 including dividends.
      Measuring stick in USD, presumably?
      Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
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      AltaRed
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by AltaRed »

      couponstrip wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:32 Equal contributions to VTI/VEA/XIC. 100% equity. Our returns were 18.7% in 2017 including dividends.

      What a run this market is having. I'll have to remember how much fun this part was when it's not fun.
      One question, I am assuming it is indeed the case, but is your return forex adjusted? There were headwinds vis-a-vis the strengthening of the loonie.

      Indeed, we will all have to remember these good times..... We see a lot of threads, if not in this forum, but in others, where many relatively new investors, likely mostly in their 30s now, if not 40s, who have not experienced what it was like in 2008/2009 and see nothing but sunshine. I don't like BNN Market Call much, but seeing the end of Market Call Tonight last night with Bruce Murray (who does not exude confidence at the best of times), he had a telling comment at about the 44:30 mark......
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      Koogie
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by Koogie »

      AltaRed wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:59 Indeed, we will all have to remember these good times..... We see a lot of threads, if not in this forum, but in others, where many relatively new investors, likely mostly in their 30s now, if not 40s, who have not experienced what it was like in 2008/2009 and see nothing but sunshine. I don't like BNN Market Call much, but seeing the end of Market Call Tonight last night with Bruce Murray (who does not exude confidence at the best of times), he had a telling comment at about the 44:30 mark......
      I am in that demographic (barely) but thankfully have a pessimistic disposition... :lol:

      I constantly calculate how much of a dip in the market we could withstand before we are back at our original "cost" (not that it is relevant benchmark except psychologically) Currently we could take a 30% drop before we're into "negative" territory.
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by THEMAINEVENT »

      DenisD wrote: 15 Jan 2018 01:00 I've updated my spreadsheet with some ETF, mutual fund and stock screen returns for 2017. There are 1, 5 and 10 year rolling returns. I own stock screens and fundamental index ETFs as well as cap-weighted index ETFs. The spreadsheet shows me how my alternatives compare to the conventional ETFs.

      Generally, my alternative investments have done quite well. Although, not as well as I hoped. My US small-cap screen is behind its benchmark over 10 years. Otherwise, my three screens are ahead over the latest 5 and 10 year periods. My Canadian and US large-cap screens have beat their ETF benchmark over all 5 and 10 year periods. The new Canadian small-cap screen has done well over its first two years.

      This is the first year I have 10 year numbers for all of the fundamental index ETFs. Strangely, the best outperformance is in the most efficient market, the US, and the worst underperformance is in the least efficient market, emerging markets. :wink:

      Clicking on the spreadsheet read-only link should put you in Excel Online. If you want to check the logic or select your own ETFs, you can download a copy or, if you're logged into your Microsoft account, copy it to OneDrive and edit it in Excel Online.
      Nice spreadsheet, thanks for sharing!
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by couponstrip »

      Norbert Schlenker wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:49
      couponstrip wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:32 Equal contributions to VTI/VEA/XIC. 100% equity. Our returns were 18.7% in 2017 including dividends.
      Measuring stick in USD, presumably?
      No in CAD, but I did do a double take after you posted. The CAD went from about 0.74 to almost 0.80 over the year. I checked the spreadsheet and realized I misquoted our contribution allocation which is 40:40:20 VTI:VEA:XIC. I'm simultaneously embarrassed and pleased with the error as it confirms that I am no longer paying close attention to the yearly machinations of this process and movement of the market. :)

      We have never rebalanced, so those allocations are actually much different in the portfolio. I will calculate them when I get a chance.
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      Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

      Post by couponstrip »

      AltaRed wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:59
      couponstrip wrote: 16 Jan 2018 12:32 Equal contributions to VTI/VEA/XIC. 100% equity. Our returns were 18.7% in 2017 including dividends.

      What a run this market is having. I'll have to remember how much fun this part was when it's not fun.
      One question, I am assuming it is indeed the case, but is your return forex adjusted? There were headwinds vis-a-vis the strengthening of the loonie.
      Yes, see above. Thanks.
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