Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investment

Asset allocation, risk, diversification and rebalancing. Pros/cons of hiring a financial advisor. Seeking advice on your portfolio?
bmikal
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Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investment

Post by bmikal »

Hi all. First post on this forum, and am grateful to be here.

I'm helping my girlfriend sort out her retirement finances. She finds the whole subject difficult and scary, and I myself am a newbie. Would deeply appreciate thoughts / comments / suggestions.

Here's the background. She's 48 years old. Retired. All investment assets currently in Europe (see below; accounts opened in 2002, at which time no investment knowledge / experience). No registered accounts, no pension. Anticipates minimal CPP-like payout from home country.

Recently emigrated to Canada. Wants to move everything here and take an index-investing approach a la Bogle/Malkiel/Ellis/WBernstein et al. Risk aversion moderate-to-high. Prefers relatively simple portfolio (not too much slice & dice).

• Debt: None
• Tax Filing Status: Single
• Tax Rate: Subject to gain on investment income
• Age: 48 (fit, no medical problems, family history longevity)
• Employment: Retired
• Size of current portfolio: ~$3M

$1M in "balanced" fund (USB Switzerland - actively managed - currently in USD)
$2M in mix of GIC-like products of a French bank (currently in EUR)


• Proposed Asset Allocation:

Equity one-third ($1M) and bonds/cash two-thirds ($2M), as follows (all funds Vanguard ETFs, with symbol in parentheses):

Equity

Canada $200K (VCN)
US $400K (VUS)
Int'l $300K (VDU)
REIT $100K (VRE)


Bond/cash

Gov't 1-5 $1 200K (VSB)
Corp 1-5 $600K (VRE)
Cash $200K (??)


• Proposed Implementation

Open on-line brokerage account (was thinking to use Qtrade or Virtual Broker or?)
Liquidate European assets and move cash to account
Buy Vanguard ETFs as indicated above

• Proposed Maintenance

3% draw-down
"Cash" on hand to cover 2-plus years living expenses
Annual rebalance and/with top-up of cash wedge


Questions

1. Overall asset-allocation reasonable for 3% draw-down?

2. Bond side reasonable in today's interest-rate environment?

3. Any asset glaringly absent (for simplicity, have purposely left out small/value tilts, emerging mkts, etc)? For example, a splash of high-yield corporate?

4. All-Vanguard ETFs reasonable?

5. Best way to make currency exchange (was thinking about sorting out a Norbert's-gambit approach for USD->CAD; possible for EUR->CAD?)?

6. Any recommendations for best place to hold "cash" -- a money-market fund, GICs, interest-bearing savings, ...?

7. Qtrade a reasonable choice?
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by Flaccidsteele »

Only speaking for myself, I would consider that bond allocation to be catastrophically high.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by gsp_ »

Welcome to the forum.

The proposed portfolio is very tax inefficient. What province does GF live in? Will she have any taxable revenue whatsoever in Canada other than from this portfolio?

Many of us are big fans of VG but in some asset classes there are better products available from other providers, particularly for taxable accounts. Some examples include HXS v VUS, ZEA v VDU and to a lesser extent XIC/ZCN or HXT v VCN.

The FI portion is especially worrisome. VSB and VSC(which is what you meant to write) are both going to have breakeven or maybe even negative returns after taxes and that's before even factoring in inflation. They are not to be held in taxable accounts.

She's better off buying GICs directly(rates are better than through a broker) in 100k slices(CDIC limit). She might consider HBB as a bond ETF for liquidity and simplicity, it is much more tax efficient than other bond ETFs.

Cash is best currently held in non broker HISAs. Regular rates of ~1.8% are available and higher promotional rates can be achieved if one is willing to chase the best rates. I currently have seven figures at 2.5% in promos that will expire by the end of the month.

Lots for both of you to learn wrt to the application of passive investing to the Canadian market. With a portfolio of that size and lots of free time, it's well worth the investment. :thumbsup:
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

Flaccidsteele wrote:Only speaking for myself, I would consider that bond allocation to be catastrophically high.

Thanks very much. What would you propose, instead of the 2:1 FI:E?
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

gsp_ wrote:Welcome to the forum.

The proposed portfolio is very tax inefficient. What province does GF live in? Will she have any taxable revenue whatsoever in Canada other than from this portfolio?

Many of us are big fans of VG but in some asset classes there are better products available from other providers, particularly for taxable accounts. Some examples include HXS v VUS, ZEA v VDU and to a lesser extent XIC/ZCN or HXT v VCN.

The FI portion is especially worrisome. VSB and VSC(which is what you meant to write) are both going to have breakeven or maybe even negative returns after taxes and that's before even factoring in inflation. They are not to be held in taxable accounts.

She's better off buying GICs directly(rates are better than through a broker) in 100k slices(CDIC limit). She might consider HBB as a bond ETF for liquidity and simplicity, it is much more tax efficient than other bond ETFs.

Cash is best currently held in non broker HISAs. Regular rates of ~1.8% are available and higher promotional rates can be achieved if one is willing to chase the best rates. I currently have seven figures at 2.5% in promos that will expire by the end of the month.

Lots for both of you to learn wrt to the application of passive investing to the Canadian market. With a portfolio of that size and lots of free time, it's well worth the investment. :thumbsup:
Thanks very much for this. Extremely helpful. In answer to your questions: BC resident, no other source of income. And, appears at least to me not much available by way of room in tax-sheltering accounts.

Couple of follow-up questions, if you don't mind: (1) thoughts re FI:E @ 2:1 w/3% drawdown -- non-starter? (2) recommendations to follow up on your "lots for both of you to learn?"
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by gsp_ »

bmikal wrote:Couple of follow-up questions, if you don't mind: (1) thoughts re FI:E @ 2:1 w/3% drawdown -- non-starter? (2) recommendations to follow up on your "lots for both of you to learn?"
1. The allocation seems quite conservative for a 48 YO healthy woman but this is a personal decision. To me the most important consideration is how will she react when half the equities go up in smoke? No one enjoys losing 500k but will she stay the course and rebalance into equities or panic? Assuming she could deal with losing 500k , what about XXXk? She should not take on more risk than she is comfortable with or that will keep her up at night. I'm still in accumulation mode so not the best person to address the 3% SWR, others will chime in I'm sure.

2. http://www.finiki.org also accessible through the link in the top right corner of this forum.

http://canadiancouchpotato.com The best Canadian blog on passive investing.

Lots of threads here that discuss many topics that will be of interest to you.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

gsp_ wrote:
bmikal wrote:Couple of follow-up questions, if you don't mind: (1) thoughts re FI:E @ 2:1 w/3% drawdown -- non-starter? (2) recommendations to follow up on your "lots for both of you to learn?"
1. The allocation seems quite conservative for a 48 YO healthy woman but this is a personal decision. To me the most important consideration is how will she react when half the equities go up in smoke? No one enjoys losing 500k but will she stay the course and rebalance into equities or panic? Assuming she could deal with losing 500k , what about XXXk? She should not take on more risk than she is comfortable with or that will keep her up at night. I'm still in accumulation mode so not the best person to address the 3% SWR, others will chime in I'm sure.

2. http://www.finiki.org also accessible through the link in the top right corner of this forum.

http://canadiancouchpotato.com The best Canadian blog on passive investing.

Lots of threads here that discuss many topics that will be of interest to you.
Got it. Thx again for generous weighing-in on this.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by AltaRed »

Flaccidsteele wrote:Only speaking for myself, I would consider that bond allocation to be catastrophically high.
Started risk aversion was moderate to high. What does your preference have to do with what is appropriate for this individual?
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by AltaRed »

Gsp, it does not matter whether the portfolio is tax inefficient. All that the person can do in the absence of a RSP is to fill TFSA room with interest bearing investments. Also, I have some issues with the Horizon ETFs. I think CRA is going to cook their goose sometime soon, as CRA has done with other gimmicks such as income trusts. The investor at least needs to be made aware of the possibility. Think of the possible huge cap gains that would be incurred if the investor had to dump Horizon 5 years from now.

I do agree that a 5 year GIC ladder would be more profitable than short term bond ETFs. That said, a medium term bond ETF to cover the slightly longer term might also be appropriate.

I would also suggest a REIT ETF like ZRE that is not cap weighted as part of the income stream.

I would avoid making the portfolio too complex given the OP was in managed products before. Definitely keep the number of investments down in quantity to a manageable number.

I would avoid Qtrade, Questrade and VB as the brokerages. The individual is just learning to drive and she does not need to be learning how to handle a sports car. Keep it simple with one of the big bank brokerages like TDDI, RBCDI or BMOIL. I only know the latter two but I think it is important to stick with a well designed website, a provider that has good online GIC inventory and has the various accounts like TFSAs. $10 commissions are not relevant for someone with her level of assets.

Keep it simple. While I agree there are better places to place HISA money than the brokerages, she has to make up her mind if she wants to have a proliferation of accounts at multiple places. If she is okay with that, it seems Peoples Trust, Oaken and Canadian Direct Financial May be some of the better places for HISA savings accounts.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by Insomniac »

Qtrade should work just fine. You will qualify for the "High Net Worth Program". Telephone and email service is good.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by Springbok »

Your gf has a unique and interesting "problem".

It might be interesting to contact the Globe & Mail and have one of the pros they use suggest a free financial makeover. They provide a contact email near bottom of this page:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e19380590/

A lot will depend on income required and desire to maintain capital. An under the mattress approach would provide an average of about $70k pa with no taxes, so there should be room to do better and maintain capital while taking very little risk.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by kcowan »

Welcome to the forum!

I would investigate what her tax status is currently. By withdrawing all the funds, she exposes herself to a tax bill. Maybe she can defer this by keeping selected holdings where they are.

Furthermore, foreign exchange could be very significant on such large amounts. You need to investigate the lowest way to get the money here.

Finally she needs to decide how much money in each market.

There is a program known as FIRECALC which will do the odds of her portfolio lasting into her 80s. Check out EarlyRetirement.org and at age 48, she will find the annual SWR of 3% might be too high.

The ideas you have been given are good. I would try to get the Globe and Mail to do a piece because the situation is very interesting.

And after all that, one of our founders lives in BC and can provide personal service which can be well worth his fee. He is notorious for Norbert's Gambit! Good luck.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by adrian2 »

kcowan wrote:And after all that, one of our founders lives in BC and can provide personal service which can be well worth his fee. He is notorious for Norbert's Gambit! Good luck.
His name is Norbert, as in Norbert's Gambit! :D
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by BRIAN5000 »

adrian2 wrote:
kcowan wrote:And after all that, one of our founders lives in BC and can provide personal service which can be well worth his fee. He is notorious for Norbert's Gambit! Good luck.
His name is Norbert, as in Norbert's Gambit! :D
http://libra-investments.com/co01.htm
Sorry, no new clients at this time?
Overall asset-allocation reasonable for 3% draw-down?
Why 3% withdrawal?

If she/you are new to the country you may need a whole banking package. What is close to your home, where do you bank now, what will/do they offer? If you’re moving most to one location, easiest not sure if it’s best, you may be able to negotiate a whole package. Something like this could be worth $5000-$10,000 in fees or savings on currency conversion.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by gsp_ »

Some additional thoughts.

GF should familiarize herself with BC tax rates and understand that not all income is created equal.

Qtrade is not a very common selection, why was it picked? I agree with AR about going with a big bank discount broker for ease of use and customer support. One caveat to that is Interactive Brokers has essentially free currency conversions so that may be worth looking into for converting into CAD$. For $2M banks should be able to get you a very good rate but even if it's within 10 bps of mid market that's still a 2k cost. I have no idea what the big banks will quote you on a conversion this large involving euros, please report back. Live mid market rates are available for comparative purposes on http://www.xe.com.

Establishing a relationship with a big 5 bank could also lead to some GIC price matching of online institutions and they generally have 3 or 4 subsidiaries to expand CDIC protection. Bylo has posted about this in the past.

Direct GIC and HISA rates can be found on several websites including the G&M and FP. Rates are discussed in this FWF thread.

Agree with kcowan about investigating the tax costs of selling everything now.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by gsp_ »

AltaRed wrote:Gsp, it does not matter whether the portfolio is tax inefficient.
Of course it does.:D She can only spend after tax dollars so that's how returns should be evaluated.
All that the person can do in the absence of a RSP is to fill TFSA room with interest bearing investments.
That takes care of .275% of her FI. For the rest one should invest in the best way possible to maximize after tax returns. Part of that is staying away from premium bond rich ETFs. You already know this but here's the explanation for the benefit of the OP and his GF.
Also, I have some issues with the Horizon ETFs. I think CRA is going to cook their goose sometime soon, as CRA has done with other gimmicks such as income trusts. The investor at least needs to be made aware of the possibility. Think of the possible huge cap gains that would be incurred if the investor had to dump Horizon 5 years from now.
I didn't suggest the GF go out and buy swap based ETFs on Monday, only that they consider them for further study due to their tax efficiency. As to the possible huge cap gains, that beats certain yearly taxable income at twice the tax rate. Regulatory risk is certainly an issue but one must keep the consequences and alternatives in mind.
That said, a medium term bond ETF to cover the slightly longer term might also be appropriate.
Does a product exist that will offer better after tax returns than GICs or even HISAs without significant credit risk all the while taking on additional duration risk?
I would also suggest a REIT ETF like ZRE that is not cap weighted as part of the income stream.
I have no real product preference here but do wonder if there's a real need for her to bother with REITs. I would favour increasing the Canadian index allocation to 30% and foregoing REITs in the interests of simplicity and tax efficiency.

In agreement with the rest of your post and of course the previous one.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by OnlyMyOpinion »

Has she already considered how much post-retirement income she 'needs' each year, and what her residual estate intentions are? These will impact the overall rate of return she needs to achieve, and from that the investments and allocation mix that are required.
As described, her only asset and source of income is the $3MM ($Cdn?), and she wants $90k pre-tax (~$60k after-tax?) from this (3% withdrawl/yr). Is it her intention to draw down part or all of the capital or to leave it intact?

We are in a similar 'near-retirement' situation and most of our focus is on 'what we will 'need' as income', 'how much we want to leave to the kids', and then knowing the size of our 'nest egg', can our investment plan get us there (or do we need to adjust income or estate expectations, etc.).
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by OhGreatGuru »

It would be preferable if GF asked for advice directly, rather than second hand. It is hard to gauge accurately her understanding of investment or her risk tolerance when filtered through a second party.

I am prejudiced, but I would be cautious about recommending an on-line brokerage account to someone who is neophyte to investing, unless she has learned a lot about the subject since 2002. Nor do I think it meets the objective of keeping things simple. However, I do realize it makes it easier to buy products from different institutions.

No-fee Index funds are readily available from all major institutions now for MER under 1.00. The cheapest are TD's e-funds. Tangerine (formerly ING) has several "couch potato" portfolio funds made up purely of index funds. Yeah, their MER is about 1.0, but they are simple.

As there is a need to draw a steady income, there are a couple of very good monthly income funds out there: RBC & TD. Notwithstanding my comment on a brokerage account, if GF chooses to go this route, she may be able to buy Class D series of such funds with something like RBC Direct Invest.

GF has relatively high net worth. This will make her a target of sales pitches for high-fee funds from many institutions, so she should have a firm idea of what she wants to invest in before giving them her money.

A consultation with PH&N might be helpful.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by AltaRed »

Gsp, I was referring to the issue that with little tax sheltering, her FI will be tax inefficient (Horizon funds aside). That said, I agree there is an issue with most bond ETFs due to the premium bond component. But short term bond ETFs are duds from a return perspective, even the new BMO (I think) discount bond ETF. Yet somehow, with a portfolio of her size, it probably should contain a medium bond component above and beyond a 5 year GIC ladder.

As for the CG issue, I was referring to the possibility of Horizon ETFs fizzling in some years hence and the CG bill to be incurred at that time to swap them out for vanilla Vanguard or iShares or BMO ETFs.

That said, some other good points were brought up about taxes incurred in selling current investments and converting Euros to CAD or USD.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

Thanks everyone for your input over the day. So helpful -- have learned a lot already.

Working now on a post to answer some of the questions that've come up and to put forward a reconsidered portfolio.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by BRIAN5000 »

OhGreatGuru wrote:It would be preferable if GF asked for advice directly, rather than second hand. It is hard to gauge accurately her understanding of investment or her risk tolerance when filtered through a second party.
Yes.

This quoted below
She finds the whole subject difficult and scary, and I myself am a newbie. Would deeply appreciate thoughts / comments / suggestions.
Here's the background. .... Retired....... (see below; accounts opened in 2002, at which time no investment knowledge / experience).
Wants to move everything here and take an index-investing approach a la Bogle/Malkiel/Ellis/WBernstein et al.

Does not equate to this
Risk aversion moderate-to-high. Prefers relatively simple portfolio (not too much slice & dice).
but your not far off the lowest equity allocation (20%) that even the most timid should maybe have. If things go the wrong way who gets the blame? Some advisors have discontinued using ETF's so as to lay blame for non performace on Mutual Fund managers and not them for advising use of ETF's even if it was market conditions which caused the problem in 08-09.

Took the dog for a walk and was thinking about this. What's with the change in asset allocation? She had a balanced fund generally 50/50 which puts about $500,000 in equity now you’re suggesting $1 million a 100% increase? What's wrong with the old allocation set by it seems professionals?
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

Follow-up

Situation
No estate requirements -- happy to spend down to last dollar at last breath.
Assuming income requirement of 50 years for planning purposes.
Recalculated total amount available for investment: $2.75M CAD

Estimated spending over lifetime:
Optimal -- $100K x 5 yrs, then $80K x 5 yrs, then $65K for remainder of lifetime. Rock-bottom $50K x 10 yrs, then $35K for remainder of lifetime (thinking here in terms of Waring & Siegel's "Liability Matching Portfolio").

Portfolio
Asset allocation: $1.0M equity, $1.75M fixed income
Equity: 30% Canada, 40% US, 30% non-NA
FI: $250K cash (HISA), $1.5M GIC 5-year ladder.

Submit scenario to Globe&Mail (what about MoneySense and/or other pubs?) to see if they're interested in commenting.
Consult accountant regarding tax implications of transferring assets from Europe to Canada; develop strategy to minimize tax liability.
All banking / brokerage (and ?currency xchange?) through single large bank (BMO first choice -- but shop around)
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by gsp_ »

AltaRed wrote:Gsp, I was referring to the issue that with little tax sheltering, her FI will be tax inefficient (Horizon funds aside).
Ok, all a matter of degree.
Yet somehow, with a portfolio of her size, it probably should contain a medium bond component above and beyond a 5 year GIC ladder.
I promise I'm not trying to be argumentative here and am willing to have my mind changed but until such funds are filled with discount bonds I'm not seeing what the purpose of such a holding is in taxable. From my perspective it looks like added risk for lower returns, a lose-lose.
As for the CG issue, I was referring to the possibility of Horizon ETFs fizzling in some years hence and the CG bill to be incurred at that time to swap them out for vanilla Vanguard or iShares or BMO ETFs.
Understood and I was making the case for them despite this. Not worth it at all for HXT as her dividend tax rate will be low but for foreign divs(HXS) and interest(HBB) the deferral and 50% capital gains inclusion make it attractive. The years of not paying foreign div/interest taxes at full rates must be weighed against the possibility of incurring that unintentional capital gains event.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by kcowan »

bmikal wrote:Thanks everyone for your input over the day. So helpful -- have learned a lot already.

Working now on a post to answer some of the questions that've come up and to put forward a reconsidered portfolio.
Another thing you might want to consider is an international bank like HSBC. They might be able to take over the investments in the local jurisdictions and currencies and give her the option of moving things only when the time and exchange rates are right.
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Re: Seeking comments/suggestions for post-retirement investm

Post by bmikal »

kcowan wrote:Another thing you might want to consider is an international bank like HSBC. They might be able to take over the investments in the local jurisdictions and currencies and give her the option of moving things only when the time and exchange rates are right.
That's a great idea. She actually has an account currently w/HSBC. Will look into it.
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