Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Asset allocation, risk, diversification and rebalancing. Pros/cons of hiring a financial advisor. Seeking advice on your portfolio?
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poedin
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by poedin »

fireseeker wrote: 28 Jul 2017 22:58 The latest memo is well worth the investment of reading time.
Totally agree, although I must admit I don't understand all of it, there's enough there to generally ruminate over (which I equate to as "sleeping on it" before making as investment decision). Otherwise being a worrier, but not losing much sleep over it, has served us well over the decades.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by kcowan »

I appreciated the reinforcement re Bitcoin and FAANG and the general conservative posture on high yield investments. :thumbsup:
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by AltaRed »

Folks like Howard Marks are critical reference points when it seems like the world has changed.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

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Finally got through the memo - great read, very informative and quite foreboding.
I know someone holding ~50% of their portfolio in cash (just over $1mil) in their broker account - waiting.
I don't think that's where a significant piece of their retirement plan should be, but I'm not sure I would do differently after reading the memo.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by AltaRed »

To me, it is more about providing a reference point for what has to be an upcoming bear...sometime. Doesn't mean one should not be fully invested. One's asset allocation should always be where one can sleep at night for when the bear descends. This is a good reminder for those that have let their AA drift.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by DenisD »

Latest memo from Howard Marks: Yet Again?
“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them.

The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.
Comments on Bitcoin, passive investing and what to do.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

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newin96 wrote: 01 Aug 2017 15:29 Finally got through the memo - great read, very informative and quite foreboding.
I know someone holding ~50% of their portfolio in cash (just over $1mil) in their broker account - waiting.
I don't think that's where a significant piece of their retirement plan should be, but I'm not sure I would do differently after reading the memo.
That's why I don't read this type of material. What are you going to do with this information? I really just encourages market timing, which I've already learned is something I suck at. Best to just diversify, collect the interest and dividends, keep saving and hope things go up in the long run.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by Norbert Schlenker »

This is a Howard Marks memo from May this year to his clients, released publcly day before yesterday.
This time it might really be different ...
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

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big easy wrote: 09 Sep 2017 12:33
newin96 wrote: 01 Aug 2017 15:29 Finally got through the memo - great read, very informative and quite foreboding.
I know someone holding ~50% of their portfolio in cash (just over $1mil) in their broker account - waiting.
I don't think that's where a significant piece of their retirement plan should be, but I'm not sure I would do differently after reading the memo.
That's why I don't read this type of material. What are you going to do with this information? I really just encourages market timing, which I've already learned is something I suck at. Best to just diversify, collect the interest and dividends, keep saving and hope things go up in the long run.
Agree with your strategy.
On occasion I do read them, but only to be apprised of alternate strategies. In the end nothing compelling that changes our 'plan', except in some tweaking (e.g., use of broad market index ETFs versus mutual funs versions).
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by AltaRed »

These memos are good food for thought. The most recent one Norbert just linked generally resonates with my own thinking that the forward 10+ years could be different than the previous ~15 years since the start of the GFC. Easy credit did result in asset inflation, and did result in inflation finally becoming rooted due to prolific government deficits and corporate/consumer spending. It is going to take some time to work it off.

In any case, it is time the "reckless" use of credit handed the heads of speculators back to them in a bloody mess.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by Profit not Prophet »

I read them a few times a year. Some needs to get him to knock the work count down by half then edit it down again. It's his style to go around and around for ten minutes. Now and then someone has to tell a billionaire to get to the point :) Think Templeton or Munger or somebody.
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Re: Howard Marks' Memos - Bubbles & Bubbles on top of Bubbles

Post by AltaRed »

They are repetitive. So is Ray Dalio. I can overlook it by skipping sentences/paragraphs.
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