Search found 898 matches

by tidal
04 Sep 2012 12:11
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Well-founded portfolio theory
Replies: 20
Views: 1324

Re: Well-founded portfolio theory

But FF3 can't constrain the number of factors to use. (Why not FF4,5,6? FF3+momentum is often used.) As a result, it can't be said to be well founded when the number of factors to use is unknown. So, any other options? 8) What does this even mean? Just because you can add degrees of freedom doesn't...
by tidal
07 Aug 2012 15:58
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Personal High Frequency Trading Software Now Offered
Replies: 9
Views: 1784

Re: Personal High Frequency Trading Software Now Offered

Watch High-Speed Trading Bots Go Berserk A chart shows the ascent of high-speed algorithmic trading, a phenomenon that is unnerving the financial markets. http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/files/89789/DxWer.gif The animated .gif above shows the rise of high-frequency trading across sever...
by tidal
02 Aug 2012 14:46
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: VIX - CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
Replies: 44
Views: 6567

Re: VIX - CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

Here's a dumb question: As I type this note, the DOW and the S&P500 are down 1.30%. The VIX is also down 1.00%? Shouldn't they be inversely correlated ? Check the ViX during the sept08-mar09 period, iirc. There's no empirical nor theoretical reason for a negative correlation, again, iirc. Hunch is ...
by tidal
24 Jul 2012 17:28
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

Ottawa will approve Nexen deal because it can’t afford not to This is a toughie. On the one hand, if we can foist this dog off now on the sly to the Chinese at a 67% market premium before it eventually implodes, it's probably a good thing for pension funds, etc. And, I suppose the Chinese have deep...
by tidal
24 Jul 2012 17:19
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock Market Valuation
Replies: 15
Views: 798

Re: Stock Market Valuation

Corporate profits (including private corporations) as a % of GDP in the US have stayed remarkably stable for most of the last century. And there are valid reasons to expect this - the simplest of which is that if corporate profits were to increase at a significantly greater pace for an extended peri...
by tidal
23 Jul 2012 23:54
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Bear market in bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1971

Re: Bear market in bonds

... During most of the past few decades, Fulcrum argues, investors and economists did not discuss "disaster" much. Little wonder: if you use the definition of "disaster" advanced by the economist Robert Barro - namely at least a 10 per cent decline in national gross domestic product per capita - th...
by tidal
20 Jul 2012 23:14
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

@ Spidey - the emission numbers you are using for the oil sands are bogus, light by roughly an order of magnitude. It's easy to confirm this just by knowing the production rate, the emissions per barrel, and global emissions. The talking point numbers you are using probably only account for the emi...
by tidal
20 Jul 2012 22:21
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2012
Replies: 308
Views: 26534

Re: Clippings 2012

If you show pigeons a red light and green light, and they flash randomly (stochastically), but the red light flashes about 60% of the time and the green light 40% of the time... but later start rewarding the pigeons for being correct in pecking at the light it chooses will flash next, the pigeons wi...
by tidal
19 Jul 2012 15:43
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

That Rolling Stone article is now online . ... Which is exactly why this new number, 2,795 gigatons, is such a big deal. Think of two degrees Celsius as the legal drinking limit – equivalent to the 0.08 blood-alcohol level below which you might get away with driving home. The 565 gigatons is how man...
by tidal
19 Jul 2012 05:36
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

Something I've mentioned a few times. Baaaaad news for unconventional oil deposits, in particular. Most will be written off, strange as it seems. Coal deposits too. We are fortunate that even more capital is not already being obliterated on pipelines. Biggest asset write-down, from the biggest indus...
by tidal
17 Jul 2012 17:03
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: The Malign Hand of the Markets
Replies: 25
Views: 1871

Re: The Malign Hand of the Markets

A thread for discussing when, and how, the invisible hand gets caught making errors. The Malign Hand of the Markets I am beginning to think that non-economists have a better chance of understanding economics than most economists do, because they are free from the indoctrination that comes in the ea...
by tidal
11 Jul 2012 09:32
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

That said, I think what we are going to see happen is a shift in investment to more 'certain' regimes, and less in politically volatile locations such as the Caspian Sea, Sakhalin Island, and even Africa. Why risk one's marbles there? You mean the roughly 10% of oil and gas production that is priva...
by tidal
10 Jul 2012 22:26
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

That said, I think what we are going to see happen is a shift in investment to more 'certain' regimes, and less in politically volatile locations such as the Caspian Sea, Sakhalin Island, and even Africa. Why risk one's marbles there? You mean the roughly 10% of oil and gas production that is priva...
by tidal
03 Jul 2012 22:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2012
Replies: 308
Views: 26534

Re: Clippings 2012

The economist : A team of researchers, led by Akshay Rao of the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management, looked at consumers’ attitudes to discounting. Shoppers, they found, much prefer getting something extra free to getting something cheaper. The main reason is that most people are...
by tidal
03 Jul 2012 22:16
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: What if ... it is different this time?
Replies: 373
Views: 43360

Re: What if ... it is different this time?

Financial Times : I find that those who doubt capitalism’s potential tend to see the worst in society. They disregard improvements and focus on downsides rather than possibilities. Their belief in redistribution and central planning reveals an urge to stifle opportunity and a mistrust of individual...
by tidal
28 Jun 2012 13:22
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Globe to charge readers for online content
Replies: 36
Views: 4258

Re: Globe to charge readers for online content

Anyone else notice this trend? ltr When on a mobile device, I can no longer access the "Full Site" option. It just bounces me back to the mobile version. No access to comments, etc.. Doesn't seem to matter what kind of mobile device/OS, either - Blackberry, iPod Touch, Samsung Galaxy 10.1". An equa...
by tidal
27 Jun 2012 21:31
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

Oh, gee, ya think? And they've never, ever made a misstep before. Therefore, remain calm. An analogy would be someone owning a $30,000 business car and damaging it in a sideswipe with a tree. A costly error it is being without wheels for awhile, but the solution to a $5000 mistake and loss of opera...
by tidal
27 Jun 2012 20:59
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

Shell's and Saudi Aramco's loss is competitor gains. Crap happens from time to time. Don't worry. The profits will continue to roll. Yep, just keep thinking that, and NOTHING can go wrong. Spend more, make more, it's automatic. Just a friendly drive by, but we both notice that the money men haven't...
by tidal
27 Jun 2012 19:16
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

AltaRed wrote:Shell's and Saudi Aramco's loss is competitor gains. Crap happens from time to time. Don't worry. The profits will continue to roll.
Yep, just keep thinking that, and NOTHING can go wrong. Spend more, make more, it's automatic.
by tidal
27 Jun 2012 18:41
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

Caustic Vapors Wreaked Quiet Ruin on Biggest U.S. Refinery Fascinating story. The key thing now is to throw all available and necessary resources to rescue this project. If it goes another few billion over budget, it matters not. There is no such thing as a sunk cost in the petroleum industry. If t...
by tidal
04 Jun 2012 21:04
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125137

Re: Oil

The biggest stupidest voluntary incineration of capital. Ever. Anywhere. Most of the newer EXISTING producing projects will be shuttered long, long before their projected lifetimes/payback periods. And this is the horse we're riding as a nation, albeit with the economic and ownership and stall-clean...
by tidal
10 May 2012 07:26
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2012
Replies: 308
Views: 26534

Re: Clippings 2012

Moore's Law Over, Supercomputing "In Triage," Says Expert Seems to be saying that future advances would require an entire root and branch gutting of the industry's build model, and that vendors and users will prefer to avoid that cost and disruption. :( Beyond the potential for more exotic implemen...
by tidal
04 May 2012 10:43
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Do we need economists?
Replies: 37
Views: 3390

Re: Do we need economists?

You tell me.

Image
by tidal
04 Apr 2012 00:02
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: What if ... it is different this time?
Replies: 373
Views: 43360

Re: What if ... it is different this time?

Anything to say about conservation laws?

Also, substitute "advertising" for "economics" in your prior post and re-read. It reads what it reads.
by tidal
02 Apr 2012 22:11
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Discounting to present value
Replies: 13
Views: 601

Re: Discounting to present value

As per usual, I'm clear on what you're arguing against tidal (infinite growth... not gonna happen... gotcha), but what are you in favour of? I take it not running towards the back of the train that's heading towards a bridge that's not there anymore ? So what then? good question. will scribble a bi...