Search found 898 matches

by tidal
04 Apr 2013 15:58
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: erooM's Law
Replies: 7
Views: 803

Re: erooM's Law

And while I don't want to limit this to batteries, consider this: … The great uncertainties here are in the area of the future of human knowledge, know-how, and skill. There is a nonexistence theorem about prediction in this area, in the sense that if we could predict what we are going to know at so...
by tidal
04 Apr 2013 15:07
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: erooM's Law
Replies: 7
Views: 803

erooM's Law

I've made a similar point in broader contexts, but probably worth a thread. Way too much scientifically-naive belief in woo as manifest destiny... Moore’s Law and battery technology: No dice Ever since Gordon Moore came up with the ubiquitous law bearing his name, it has been applied to paradigms fa...
by tidal
02 Apr 2013 18:45
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: William Bernstein
Replies: 76
Views: 7105

Re: William Bernstein

All of which raises the more general point: If the general public is so incompetent when it comes to finance, where they have real skin in the game, can we expect competence in any other area of their lives? People who are highly skilled in specific areas tend to be better able to calibrate their s...
by tidal
18 Mar 2013 17:33
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Grantham's Prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 6489

Re: Grantham's Prediction

... I beleive that people's beliefs tend to be inherently intertwined with their own interests. I seriously doubt that any person, Grantham included, would believe the tar sands ought to stay in the ground if that same person owned the whole thing... This really doesn't follow. Even in the bizarre ...
by tidal
15 Mar 2013 15:45
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Value Averaging
Replies: 18
Views: 1986

Re: Value Averaging

My paraphrase of DanH, on the same general concern is: "Yes, regression to the mean... but what mean?"

Recall liking the book, though.
by tidal
09 Mar 2013 13:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Risk over time - contradictory opinions
Replies: 49
Views: 3108

Re: Risk over time - contradictory opinions

No idea what you guys are on about (;) ) but i think the curves become more normalised when using larger time frames because with longer peiods you are not so much measuring random returns but earnings. And earnings growth is mean reverting. http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/8/9/25186...
by tidal
22 Feb 2013 13:14
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Algorithmic Trading
Replies: 6
Views: 265

Re: Algorithmic Trading

Sounds like some of that article isn't talking about algorithms any more complex than a regular monthly savings amount, and letting dollar-cost averaging dictate the purchased quantities. But high-speed algorithmic trading is starting to play such a large role in the marketplace that it is hard to i...
by tidal
19 Feb 2013 18:33
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Dennis Gartman
Replies: 19
Views: 3223

Re: Dennis Gartman

Celebrity advisers can cost investors a lot of money Add to ... by Fabrice Taylor, Special to The Globe and Mail, Published Monday, Feb. 2013 "The best thing you can say about the Horizons Gartman ETF is that it was launched with impeccable timing. The worst thing, which happens to be true, is that...
by tidal
15 Feb 2013 11:51
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125149

Re: Oil

Whoa! Who could've guessed this? HSBC: Oil majors at risk from 'unburnable' reserves There really is no question that there are investment issues here that need to be recognized. It's actually easy to make the case that they are playing out in Alberta "as we speak". And it's somewhat shocking, fran...
by tidal
15 Feb 2013 09:53
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Reaching saturation on finance books
Replies: 58
Views: 3089

Re: Reaching saturation on finance books

If I recall correctly, in William Bernstein's "The Intelligent Asset Allocator", at one point he writes up about 4-5 paragraphs that basically say "Here's what we know, here's what we sorta know, here's what we don't know. Here's about all you really need to know and do. All the rest is filling in t...
by tidal
14 Feb 2013 13:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125149

Re: Oil

Whoa! Who could've guessed this? HSBC: Oil majors at risk from 'unburnable' reserves HSBC study finds meeting international climate goals could strip 60 per cent of the value from companies such as BP, Shell, and Statoil Oil and gas majors, including, BP, Shell, and Statoil, could face a loss in mar...
by tidal
11 Feb 2013 12:30
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2013
Replies: 451
Views: 23868

Re: Clippings 2013

The Ignorance Caucus Last week Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, gave what his office told us would be a major policy speech... ... To be sure, Mr. Cantor tried to sound interested in serious policy discussion. But he didn’t succeed — and that was no accident. For these days his party dislike...
by tidal
21 Jan 2013 17:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: The Wealthy Barber
Replies: 12
Views: 2137

Re: The Wealthy Barber

Chilton vs. O'Leary on Lang & O'Leary Exchange: The Wealthy Barber Returns Who sounds like Jack Bogle and who sounds like an interest-conflicted shill for the fund industry? CBC reports. You decide ;) I remember seeing that shortly after it aired. I was skeptical of Kevin's closing claim of having ...
by tidal
21 Nov 2012 14:38
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125149

Re: Oil

Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for thee. Unless heat-seeking missiles, lasers, semiconductors and various other standard technologies mysteriously begin failing because it turns out everything we thought we knew about radiative physics was wrong and it was just all a bizarre fluke we init...
by tidal
17 Nov 2012 13:24
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125149

Re: Oil

Two germane commentaries from Michael Levi this week: The Big Wild Card Behind the Oil Boom Headlines The International Energy Agency (IEA) made headlines around the world earlier this week when it published a major report predicting that the United States would pass Saudi Arabia to become the world...
by tidal
15 Nov 2012 11:54
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Nautilus Minerals (Symbol NUS)
Replies: 50
Views: 4502

Re: Nautilus Minerals (Symbol NUS)

Deep sea miners terminate pioneering project Controversial deep-sea mining company Nautilus Minerals is “terminating the construction” of its flagship project off the coast of Papua New Guinea and laying off staff, it said today. Let's go the tape! ... on the other hand, this one also appears to be...
by tidal
25 Oct 2012 12:09
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: I was at a BMO branch today
Replies: 20
Views: 1212

Re: I was at a BMO branch today

See the fine print. Investments in the LifeStage Deposits are not mutual fund investments. They are investments in principal protected deposit notes (the LifeStage Deposits) issued by Bank of Montreal and will constitute direct, unsecured and unsubordinated debt obligations of Bank of Montreal. Det...
by tidal
25 Oct 2012 12:04
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: I was at a BMO branch today
Replies: 20
Views: 1212

Re: I was at a BMO branch today

DavidR wrote:Here is a link to the BMO site for Lifestage Retirement Income Portfolios http://lsrip.bmo.com/ They are a Principal Protected Note type of product according to the fine print.
You sure about that? Just glancing at it, it looks like the capital distributions are guaranteed, not the principal?
by tidal
25 Oct 2012 11:38
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: I was at a BMO branch today
Replies: 20
Views: 1212

Re: I was at a BMO branch today

That about captures them, I think. Maybe one more? Even if you assume that the "rate of return" is not a return or capital, but truly is a yield, isn't the "annualized rate" wrong as well? For financial math, shouldn't it be (1 + 500/100,000)^12 ---> 6.17%, not 6%? (A technical, nit, yes, and if you...
by tidal
18 Oct 2012 11:02
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Royal Bank (Symbol-RY)
Replies: 275
Views: 62393

Re: Royal Bank (Symbol-RY)

Royal Bank says it will soon start repurchasing up to 30 million of its common shares. How will this affect the price of the stock now, and during the repurchase? TORONTO, Oct. 12, 2012 /CNW/ - Royal Bank of Canada (TSX: RY) (NYSE: RY) today announced its intention, subject to the approval of the O...
by tidal
03 Oct 2012 18:09
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: CMHC's problems
Replies: 64
Views: 10546

Re: CMHC's problems

Ottawa bails out CMHC (from General Revenues) and the taxpayers (eventually) bail out Ottawa with higher taxes to pay off the increased debt (eventually). What???? Why on earth would taxpayers face higher taxes? Didn't you get the memo? The solution to a shortfall in General Revenues - or expanded ...
by tidal
04 Sep 2012 13:05
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Well-founded portfolio theory
Replies: 20
Views: 1324

Re: Well-founded portfolio theory

It would seem that folks are overly intent on personalizing this discussion which is not my interest. I don't see that. I just see contentions being challenged, and those challenges then not being responded to. I don't see one objective instance of any "personalizing" on this thread. Sigh. I am not...
by tidal
04 Sep 2012 12:43
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Well-founded portfolio theory
Replies: 20
Views: 1324

Re: Well-founded portfolio theory

NormR wrote:It would seem that folks are overly intent on personalizing this discussion which is not my interest.
I don't see that. I just see contentions being challenged, and those challenges then not being responded to. I don't see one objective instance of any "personalizing" on this thread.