Search found 898 matches

by tidal
28 Jan 2012 20:36
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Do we need economists?
Replies: 37
Views: 3390

Re: Do we need economists?

This is a good, balanced piece by Martin Wolf.
What future for economics?
by tidal
26 Jan 2012 15:53
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: FWF Donation Capability has Arrived!!
Replies: 16
Views: 755

Re: FWF Donation Capability has Arrived!!

Which reminds me. I want to contribute, but I am not doing the cc options. So if a FWF poobah pm,s me, I will email some money. thx in advance.
by tidal
04 Jan 2012 20:55
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Rating Analysts
Replies: 16
Views: 1727

Re: Rating Analysts

This could be fun (new twitter feed - @ShitAnalystsSay)
https://twitter.com/#!/ShitAnalystsSay
"On capital allocation, how do you think about spend going forward? Do you see any accelerated dollars?"
by tidal
04 Jan 2012 14:06
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Bill Gross: the Latest
Replies: 266
Views: 47049

Re: Bill Gross: the Latest

This bi-modal outcome that Bill Gross opines on this month has been at the forefront of my thinking for a while now. It's not so much that I have any great insight into how this is going to occur, but rather simply the need to partially hedge a portfolio against an outcome of either sort;... Peter ...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 18:58
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

P.S. @ spidey... no discrepancy between my 10% china cumulative and your 23% "wiki" current. Again, a STOCK problem... but now so late in the game that it's ALSO a flow problem. Try Kump and Kasting as a text off the top of my head. P.P.S. bad card to play trump with against the developing nations. ...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 17:48
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

@ Spidey, I am on an sluggish iPod right now, but Nature bats last. Doesn't really care how much of the CO2 fastball hurling its way is Chinese or Canadian or if they hate each other. I mention upthread - the gravity measurements of the ice sheets; watch that this decade. They're ALREADY melting at ...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 17:30
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

Hydrocarbon use will never go away as quickly as the naive assume. Back at'cha. I don't think it will go away as quickly as necessary. But I would say that those that think that fossil fuel use has a long and strong run ahead of it that are equally naive. See the gap between reserve and emission li...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 15:11
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Timminco (Symbol-TIM)
Replies: 31
Views: 4747

Re: Timminco (Symbol-TIM)

Considering all the hype that was behind this stock a few years ago, one has to wondere if all wasn't just smoke and mirrors? Timminco files for bankruptcy restructuring . Here is some free advice. When it comes to energy and energy storage and any mention of such in the same sentence as "breakthro...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 15:01
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

I will note that I am basically deferring to respective domain experts here. I.e. that the geologists' estimate of proven fossil fuel reserves are correct, and that the climate scientists' evaluation of the maximum amount we can combust is correct. I also note that the two numbers are vastly differ...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 14:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

My opinion is that most of the existing fossil fuel proven reserves of the Exxons and Gazproms and Saudi Aramco's and Petrobras and PetroChinas and BHPs and oil sands and everyone else will eventually stay in the ground. Either because we choose to or because we run into serious disruption problems...
by tidal
03 Jan 2012 13:53
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

My bet is that most of the reserves will get left in the ground. The owners of the existing reserves will be in a mad scramble to both (a) avoid any limits on their extraction and (b) get theirs out before their competitors do. But in the end, only a fraction will get out. Odds are better for a lar...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 21:03
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Buy this book
Replies: 18
Views: 1863

Re: Buy this book

Shakespeare wrote:I am now on page 40 of Maudlin's Endgame.

If you are a serious investor, buy this book. It is far more comprehensible to the layman than Reinhart and Rogoff.
Mauldin.
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 14:20
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

From that article, Most believe atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations can be stabilized even as emissions into the atmosphere continuously exceed removal of GHGs from it. What really happens for equilibrium is that the rate of removal will increase as concentrations increase. The same is true o...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 13:53
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

Tidal, as you know fossil fuels will not be going away in my lifetime or that of my children. I believe there will be significant reductions in their use, thereby eliminating growth, but they will probably, at best, be capped at about today's levels. The world is simply not going to respond despite...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 13:34
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

Oil at $100 seems to be self-limiting. That's our carbon tax. :wink: As for the GT CO2 "budget", it will be broken, because behavior won't change until things get disastrous, and then it will be too late with further catastrophic change built in. The only alternative possibility is a technological ...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 13:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

That would require international cooperation and coordination with enforcement "teeth". Otherwise we are in the classic free rider problem, it seems to me. Given the current fractious nature of our politicians -- who can't even agree long enough to pass a budget or create a sovereign bailout fund -...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 13:19
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

@ AltaRed - Well, that could be one way it plays out. If it does, then the physics and chemistry of the planet will respond accordingly. No getting around that consequence. Personally, I find it hard to believe that people now under 40 will willingly let that scenario just happen. We'll probably res...
by tidal
30 Dec 2011 12:50
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1272
Views: 125100

Re: Oil

Unless we are completely wrong about carbon's impact on the atmosphere and oceans - and by "completely wrong", I am talking the equivalent of planes and satellites suddenly falling out of the sky, because it would imply that we are wrong about very fundamental things that undergird all of our curren...
by tidal
29 Dec 2011 12:21
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 5629

Re: Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation?

Richard Koo’s RWER paper “has gone viral on the Web” says the New York Times”. More importantly, when the private sector deleverages in spite of zero interest rates, the economy enters a deflationary spiral because, in the absence of people borrowing and spending money, the economy continuously los...
by tidal
12 Dec 2011 14:19
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Worth reading 2011
Replies: 33
Views: 6050

Re: Worth reading 2011

Shakespeare wrote:From Mark Carney, BoC governor:
FOR THE RECORD: The global Minsky moment has arrived
... Worth reading in full.
Thank you.

Canadians consuming beyond means: Mark Carney
by tidal
07 Dec 2011 12:06
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Magna (Symbol-MG.A)
Replies: 40
Views: 5109

Re: Magna (Symbol-MG.A)

Mike Harris had only minority support when re-elected as Magna chairman The voting results show Mr. Harris received 38 per cent support for his re-election, while former Boston University business dean Louis Lataif and Toronto accountant Donald Resnick also got 38 per cent support. Mr. Stronach rec...
by tidal
01 Dec 2011 06:40
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Can you transfer stock from your trading account to RRSP?
Replies: 11
Views: 1156

Re: Can you transfer stock from your trading account to RRSP

It's not clear to me that the original poster is asking about swaps., vs a contribution ("he has the room"). I think contributions can still be made in-kind.
by tidal
27 Nov 2011 11:03
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Couch potato blues.
Replies: 47
Views: 3259

Re: Couch potato blues.

Or maybe not : As London School of Business professor Elroy Dimson notes: "People have hopelessly got the wrong end of the story." Based on decades of data from 53 countries, Dimson found that economies with the highest growth produce the lowest stock returns . Stocks in countries with the highest ...
by tidal
27 Nov 2011 10:52
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Couch potato blues.
Replies: 47
Views: 3259

Re: Couch potato blues.

Portfolio returns are in the process of regressing to their mean. Equities, about 3% to 4%. Maybe. And probably less on a real basis. Still have a long way to go to unwind the last century, though. There are two things being conflated here. (1) The arithmetic of indexing, which is indisputable. (2) ...