Search found 5269 matches

by newguy
07 Dec 2016 17:39
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2016
Replies: 189
Views: 19582

Re: Clippings 2016

Flaccidsteele wrote:Where can we find data on a country's ability to pay the interest on their loans?

What is an appropriate interest coverage? Or do we use credit rating as a proxy for this?
Look up sovereign CDS.
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/rewe ... ET_EN-PROD

newguy
by newguy
30 Nov 2016 14:06
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1564
Views: 224787

Re: Oil

AltaRed wrote:Looks like OPEC has done enough to curtail the slide in oil prices......The USA alone can recover their 1 million barrel per day slide in fairly short order
Sounds a little contradictory.

I wonder if there's any research on how effective cartels are when their market shares are so low. One article said a cut from around 35 to 34 mmbd. That's not even half of world production, and like you said, it will easily be made up elsewhere. But still, a 3% cut for a 9% price rise (closer to 10% now) sounds good for a day or two.

newguy
by newguy
30 Nov 2016 13:23
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Negative duration bond ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1033

Re: Negative duration bond ETFs

It sounds to me like you just trading the IG or HY spread. We can look at that history and compare it. Let's try python this time. import pandas_datareader.data as web import datetime start = datetime.datetime(1996,12,31)# earliest for spread data hy_sprd = web.DataReader("BAMLH0A0HYM2", "fred",start) hynd = web.DataReader("hynd", "yahoo") #just get needed columns and dates combined combined = pd.concat([hy_sprd.BAMLH0A0HYM2, hynd.Close], axis=1, join='inner') # the cumulative percentage change pct_chg = combined.pct_change().cumsum() # invert and re-scale just for easy graph pct_chg['hy_sprd_inv'] = -pct_chg.BAMLH0A0HYM2 / 3 import matplotlib %matplotlib inline pct_chg.loc[:,['hy_sprd_inv', 'Close']]...
by newguy
25 Nov 2016 14:13
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Outstanding Financial Pornography
Replies: 1024
Views: 259208

Re: Outstanding Financial Pornography

hboy43 wrote: I guess it all comes down to "rational". Most are not, so it seems to me this is a tool to keep folks in the game in the short term at the cost of the long term to a avoid a situation like 2008 where an individual quits the market and hides in GICs for the rest of their lives.

Is my assessment fair here or have I completely missed the point?
I think that's a good point for normal portfolios. You've missed the use of leverage. The higher risk adjusted returns can turn into higher absolute returns with leverage.

newguy
by newguy
08 Oct 2016 13:57
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions
Replies: 40
Views: 4529

Re: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions

AltaRed wrote:I still disagree with Little Al on his point of focus.
As I see it his focus, and mine, is on saving money by encouraging low income Canadians on GIS to leave and pay their own medical costs somewhere cheaper. Not paying GIS is the main reason most of them stay. They're all old and that's when most health care resources are used.

newguy
by newguy
06 Oct 2016 11:00
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions
Replies: 40
Views: 4529

Re: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions

SQRT wrote:Doubt issues relating to GIS have anything to do with snowbirds who would generally have sufficient income that would disqualify them from GIS.
Up until last year my in laws spent around 182 in the Philippines every other year or so on annual incomes of about $12k. You can 'snowbird' to many cheaper places and actually save money. Ask KCowan!

newguy
by newguy
06 Oct 2016 10:39
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions
Replies: 40
Views: 4529

Re: Taxman clamps down on snowbirds heading south, hopes to save millions

Funny thing is that our govt i.diots stand more to lose if they forcefully tie retirees to Canada by threatening to take their GIS away: the repatriate will collect 10K of GIS annually, plus (many of them) will get extra 5-6K a year in form of subsidized housing, plus, out of boredom, they will start going to doctors with every minor illness. Social pension should be paid as a pension, like in the US - not like a welfare tied to residency. I agree. In laws have left and lost ~20k GIS but will save the govt maybe a million or so in health care. They should make a policy that you can leave Canada and lose health care forever but still collect GIS. In many countries health care is very cheap. My daughter went to a doctor in Vietnam for $20, d...
by newguy
24 Aug 2016 14:38
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: You Pay More On Taxes Than Necessities
Replies: 71
Views: 5938

Re: You Pay More On Taxes Than Necessities

Most of our taxes go to three things.
Capture.PNG
Capture.PNG (8.02 KiB) Viewed 1831 times
The Social services has been flat at around 30% but I only show social assistance(welfare/oas/gis). There is a 'other' category that has been climbing to offset the decline, but I don't know what it is.

Health is the biggie but education is also using increasingly more and more as well. These two are what has to change if you don't want more and more taxes. Also note debt charges have been declining since the late 90's but that won't continue.

newguy
by newguy
24 Aug 2016 12:50
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1564
Views: 224787

Re: Oil

Canada 's net exports (which already takes into consideration imports into the east) The wiki says 'exports' not 'net exports', ltr just added the net. However on further checking it seems to me like the CIA source of the data used net exports for just Canada in their data. It's hard to tell since only Canada and the US have much back and forth trading. All other exporters import only a small fraction. But in the case of the US with a positive number for exports, it's not net. For Canada I looked up the data and it's close-ish to the StatsCan numbers for net. https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/stt/crdlsmmr/2015/smmry2015-eng.html * multiply m^3 * 2π for barrels (another weird π coincidence). Alta's right that there's bee...
by newguy
23 Aug 2016 16:26
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1564
Views: 224787

Re: Oil

like_to_retire wrote:
newguy wrote:Make a new list ranked by net exports.
Huh, so Canada is 11th in the list of net oil exports in the world. I would still think we would garner a mention once in a while.
But subtract the imports. I only use pure venuzualen oil in my car (and columbian coffee for me!) .

It's a east/west thing until we build some pipelines.

newguy
by newguy
23 Aug 2016 16:14
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: Non-Registered Account - Day Trading - Taxation Inquiry
Replies: 8
Views: 1424

Re: Non-Registered Account - Day Trading - Taxation Inquiry

Why a Corp? For liability or to pay highest marginal rates? If you have a loss can it be deducted from regular income, ie. transfer loss from corp to personal taxes? Search on canlii for cases involving how to declare loss on income account. Sometimes it's disallowed but one guy with a good business plan (except for the losing money part) had his losses allowed. This wasn't in a corp. Since you're almost certainly going to lose money, it's best to have a plan for using those losses. I've stated before that all the court cases are people trying to claim losses from income and not cap gains but there was a recent ruling the other way. https://releve.canlii.org/en/ca/tcc/doc/2013/2013tcc130/2013tcc130.html?searchUrlHash=AAAAAQAJd29uZyAyMDEzAAA...
by newguy
23 Aug 2016 16:01
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: login
Replies: 2
Views: 146

Re: login

by newguy
23 Aug 2016 15:55
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1564
Views: 224787

Re: Oil

like_to_retire wrote:Canada is #5, while it's Nigeria #13, Iran #7, Irag #8, Venezuela #12.
Make a new list ranked by net exports.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... il_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... il_imports

I think Canada is maybe 500k - 1 million bbl/day where Saudi is 7 million. The other small players export much more than Canada.

Still, domestic production-consumption is important but maybe not so much for getting in the news. I think US consumption is a bigger story than production. It's still down from a 2005 peak.

newguy
by newguy
31 Jul 2016 21:12
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 165
Views: 25821

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

twa2w wrote:Is this how every one else interpret it.
That's how I interpret "Hot Potato", the OP shows 4 funds equal weight so... :?:

newguy
by newguy
31 Jul 2016 19:38
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 165
Views: 25821

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

Shakespeare wrote:
I don't know how often they re-balance, but it's probably frequent.
The point of a momentum approach is to rebalance infrequently.

Mean reversion generally works at a longer time scale than momentum.
Of course. I was pointing out this fund exists, I just don't know their re-bal freq.

https://www.tdassetmanagement.com/fundD ... &site=TDCT (??someone broke td)

True about mean reversion but some studies show better performance with frequent re-balancing. :?:

newguy
by newguy
31 Jul 2016 19:19
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Are pdf's Legal Electronic Documents?
Replies: 14
Views: 243

Re: Are pdf's Legal Electronic Documents?

Shakespeare wrote:
A PDF that has been converted to a Word doc and then re-PDFed?
The point is that the PDF itself has a modification chain from creation. So it is true to whatever was printed/signed if unmodified.
In Alta's example it would be a new PDF. A PDF doesn't have some security like you suggest, it has the capability for cooperating editors I guess you could say.

From the official reference.

Code: Select all

The contents of a PDF file can be updated incrementally without rewriting the entire file. When updating a PDF
file incrementally, changes shall be appended to the end of the file, leaving its original contents intact. 
If you want to rewrite the entire file, you can.

newguy
by newguy
31 Jul 2016 18:53
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 165
Views: 25821

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

What we've got here is failure to communicate.

It's just a normal 75/25 portfolio for the terminally bored. Luckily, TD has changed the minimum no fee holding period to 30 days or it'd expensive.

There's an e-portfolio that does the same thing but for a higher fee I imagine. I don't know how often they re-balance, but it's probably frequent.

newguy
by newguy
17 Jul 2016 14:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Where to go from here
Replies: 8
Views: 1071

Re: Where to go from here

A couple points.

-The interest on the mortgage is higher than 0.5% so you're lending to the bank at much less than they're lending to you. Pay the mortgage before saving. Even consider using the TFSA to pay anniversary payments.

-The wife's TFSA, if not used, can be used by you. All the caveats about divorce apply. But she should use it since she'll have minimal RRSP room and a decent taxable income at retirement that a TFSA may be better anyway.

-If the UK property is rented, it could have a tax deductible mortgage but sounds way too complicated for me.

-Don't bother reaching too hard for yield unless you realize it means more risk.

newguy
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 21:16
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes
Replies: 685
Views: 26376

Re: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes

like_to_retire wrote:I hadn't heard about this problem, but the internet does seem to say it's a problem for some. Maybe I was just lucky.
No, I forgot you said you use McAffe. If you have another anti-virus, defender is supposed to stay off. The problem arises when you want no anti-virus.

newguy
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 21:11
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Bust 2016
Replies: 641
Views: 41967

Re: Housing Bust 2016

twa2w wrote:I think you had better read that again. The passage you quote applies more to a resident of Canada who leaves to live in another country.
Well if you read the entering Canada section, it says go read the leaving Canada section.

I'm not saying it's definitive, I just said it was one criteria they look at. The CRA said it was a significant tie.

newguy
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 18:54
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes
Replies: 685
Views: 26376

Re: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes

like_to_retire wrote:Linux - yuk. Reserved for tinfoil-hats.
I pretty much agree. I've forced myself to use it and stick with it for about a year now and it's no where near the functionality of windows. I figured since I do scientific programming most of the time it would be ideal, but everything you do in linux that's even written for linux is easier and faster in windows. Without a promise to stay at it, I would have given up already.

The tinfoil hat part is true and I just want to be sure what data I'm sending back to the mothership. It's a question of trust and Msft lost mine even though the data collected seems quite innocuous .

newguy
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 18:45
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes
Replies: 685
Views: 26376

Re: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes

I have one new laptop running win 10 that came with it. I've been unable to shut off the anti-virus / windows defender services since it just restarts them after a short while, unlike win xp/vista/7/8. As such it's the only computer I've ever had with an anti virus program running. I don't feel this is a function of Windows 10, rather the laptops manufacturer. I use Windows 10 and certainly once windows defender services are shut off, they remain shut off. I don't know how you did it? Every site I've read says that it will turn itself back on. I can't use a group policy editor since it's only a home version, maybe you have pro? Even the ones that show registry hacks don't work permanently. Check your task manager and you'll probably see it...
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 16:10
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes
Replies: 685
Views: 26376

Re: Worms, Viruses, Trojans and Other Computer Security Holes

Antivirus software is 'increasingly useless' and may make your computer less safe My first virus: I have one new laptop running win 10 that came with it. I've been unable to shut off the anti-virus / windows defender services since it just restarts them after a short while, unlike win xp/vista/7/8. As such it's the only computer I've ever had with an anti virus program running. It took about 5 hours total of browsing with edge since purchase to get a virus. It was a neighbourhood kid and he's not sure what he did, but still.. My son did the same thing at the same time on win7/chrome (no anti virus) and no problem. I'm convinced it's all one big scam. Maybe Microsoft doesn't ship them with holes on purpose, but it's just a selling point lik...
by newguy
14 Jul 2016 14:47
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Bust 2016
Replies: 641
Views: 41967

Re: Housing Bust 2016

twa2w wrote:
patriot1 wrote:. Note that anyone with dependent family in Canada is considered a tax resident in Canada regardless of where they are.
Any references to back that up.
It's just one criteria (albeit an important one) in determining residency.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/tchncl/ncmt ... 1-eng.html
Significant residential ties

1.11 The residential ties of an individual that will almost always be significant residential ties for the purpose of determining residence status are the individual's:

dwelling place (or places);
spouse or common-law partner; and
dependants.
by newguy
11 Jul 2016 20:54
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: Gifting Property
Replies: 9
Views: 1871

Re: Gifting Property

OhGreatGuru wrote:However, an appraisal should be made of the property at the time of transfer -this becomes the son's "deemed acquisition cost".
I think that should be done at a change in use, ie. if he decides to rent it out or something.

newguy