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by NormR
13 Jun 2023 19:34
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]
Replies: 70
Views: 6639

Re: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]

It has been a pleasure to know you through the forum(s). You helped many people along the way. Thank you!
I hope your passage is as comfortable as possible and that family and friends are near.
by NormR
07 Jun 2023 15:42
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: This day in history
Replies: 28
Views: 2880

Re: This day in history

poedin wrote: 07 Jun 2023 13:00 A day late ... 79 years ago commenced the liberation of France and Western Europe and consequently re-democratization of countries and nationalities versus the appropriations and subjugations by the Soviet Union.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Overlord
D-Day 24 Hours
Your dedicated channel for TimeGhost History's ground-breaking 24 hour coverage of D-Day, as it really happened. Here you'll find clips, playlists, and all the chapters of that day as it unfolded.
by NormR
19 May 2023 10:40
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Power of Dividend Growth, 2023 (and beyond)
Replies: 85
Views: 7695

Re: Power of Dividend Growth, 2023 (and beyond)

Expectations are for $0.03 per share boosts to the quarterly from BMO, NA, RY with $0.02 per share from BNS and CM, and nothing from TD. But I've low confidence in such predictions.
by NormR
16 May 2023 12:44
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) - stats and amateur epidemiology
Replies: 4257
Views: 152448

Re: Coronavirus (COVID-19) - stats and amateur epidemiology

In the past, prior to COVID-19, the odds of catching a cold or flu after flying overseas were about even. There's no reason to believe that they're any better with COVID-19. Masking might work better. Problem is, the current vaccines offer very little protection vs infection for the current variants. IIRC, less than 2 months worth. But protection vs. serious disease is still good with just 3 shots total. (Immunocompromised and elderly elderly excepted.) So, line up the shot with the travel period accordingly. (Also old folk should talk to their doc about getting paxlovid in case they get COVID because it further reduces the risk of serious problems significantly over just vaccination.) Besides, is there any downside risk in getting a jab e...
by NormR
04 May 2023 20:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: A long time in the making... critiques welcomed!
Replies: 17
Views: 1505

Re: A long time in the making... critiques welcomed!

Sophocles wrote: 04 May 2023 18:53
NormR wrote: 03 May 2023 17:32Why retire?
indeed, but then why work when you can play :thumbsup:
Why not get paid for playing?
by NormR
04 May 2023 00:05
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: ChatGPT
Replies: 145
Views: 8406

Re: ChatGPT

ChatGPT Confirms Data Breach
It now seems that the tables have turned. Instead of attackers using ChatGPT to cause cyber incidents, they have now turned on the technology itself. OpenAI, which developed the chatbot, confirmed a data breach in the system that was caused by a vulnerability in the code’s open-source library, according to Security Week. The breach took the service offline until it was fixed.
by NormR
01 May 2023 09:17
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Power of Dividend Growth, 2023 (and beyond)
Replies: 85
Views: 7695

Re: Power of Dividend Growth, 2023 (and beyond)

Descartes wrote: 01 May 2023 08:41 The banks, RY, BMO, BNS, and CM are due towards the end of the month.
I'm surprised the banks haven't been barred from boosting their dividends like they were in 2020.
by NormR
30 Apr 2023 16:30
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Bank runs are back on the menu
Replies: 173
Views: 12908

Re: Bank runs are back on the menu

Bylo Selhi wrote: 30 Apr 2023 16:09
NormR wrote: 10 Mar 2023 20:18Bank runs are back on the menu
Why a Bank of Canada digital dollar would take ‘bank runs’ OFF the menu
But what sort of mischief / unintended consequences would such a system put on the menu? Negative interest rates on deposits, easy government confiscation of deposits, elimination of paper money, etc.?
by NormR
22 Apr 2023 16:58
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Roast my portfolio? (advice wanted)
Replies: 34
Views: 3272

Re: Roast my portfolio? (advice wanted)

Can’t tell if dividend investing > index etf or nobody wants to mention the flaws because it is from Norm… 🤔 I'll take a quick crack at it :wink: 1. It doesn't work as well in the U.S. 2. Shareholder yield is likely a better metric where buybacks are more favoured (i.e. in the U.S.) 3. High yield stocks may have benefited from the declining interest rate environment since the early 1980s. 4. Canadian high yield portfolios tend to be overly concentrated in a few sectors (financials, etc.) 5. Good market tracking ETFs are cheaper than dividend ETFs and may be cheaper than a managing a portfolio of stocks 5b. Speaking of dividend ETFs, they often have portfolios with crazy weights i.e. huge positions in RY, top 10 holdings, etc. I'm sure I ca...
by NormR
16 Apr 2023 19:30
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Readers vs pundits
Replies: 3
Views: 1032

Re: Readers vs pundits

The readers' picks: Algonquin Power & Utilities, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Bank of Nova Scotia, Brookfield, Enbridge, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Shopify, TC Energy, TELUS, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Tourmaline Oil
by NormR
15 Apr 2023 14:55
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Periodic Tables and Charts of Annual Investment Returns
Replies: 111
Views: 36336

Re: Periodic Tables and Charts of Annual Investment Returns

Bylo Selhi wrote: 15 Apr 2023 13:32
I don't understand the purpose of VBAL, VEXQ etc. You could lose money if you hold bond ETFs. If you want fixed incomes, why not GICs or Real bonds?
The main benefits of VBAL (et al) are simplicity, broad diversification and the dispassionate rebalancing discipline. You could mimic these ETFs with a few other ETFs plus fixed income as GICs or bonds, etc. but that would defeat those benefits, at least on the FI side.

Yes. Also, what really matters is inflation-adjusted returns. As a result, GICs only provide the illusion of offering "fixed" returns. GICs also have coupon/reinvestment risk, etc.

Similarly, one can lose money in real return bonds. For instance, XRB lost 14.7% in 2022.
by NormR
11 Apr 2023 10:49
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources
Replies: 544
Views: 114432

Re: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources

I'm thinking about flipping over to Aswath Damodaran's method of bootstrapping U.S. bond returns via FRED data because they go back to 1928 for 3-Month T-Bills, 10-Yr T-Bonds, and BAA Corporate Bonds. For 10-year bonds: I use the 10-year US treasury bond, since it is the only longer maturity bond with an uninterrupted history going back in time. For the data, I use the yields on a constant-maturrity 10-year bond, which can be found on FRED (the Federal Reserve website). I convert the yield into a return, by repricing the bond, issued at par at the prior year's yield, with the new yield, while keeping the maturity constant at 10 years. Thus, if the yield goes from 2.5% to 3%, I first price a 2.5%, 10 year coupon bond with a 3% interest rate,...
by NormR
05 Apr 2023 22:55
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: ChatGPT
Replies: 145
Views: 8406

Re: ChatGPT

One might instruct GPT to not lie. Problem is, it doesn't really understand what it's doing. :roll:
by NormR
05 Apr 2023 22:52
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Ice storm-2023
Replies: 24
Views: 1158

Re: Ice storm-2023

StuBee wrote: 05 Apr 2023 22:38 So my next step is to remove the tree, call a local electrician to repair the house attachment, and then call HydroQuebec to reattach the wires.
We had a similar problem a few years back. It sucks. :cry:
by NormR
30 Mar 2023 12:18
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Federal Budget 2023
Replies: 63
Views: 6089

Re: Federal Budget 2023

Mordko wrote: 28 Mar 2023 23:55 A couple of 50 year old retirees in NB living on $90K a year income in own house without a mortgage will get free dental care. Nice.

A couple of young professionals without a dental plan renting and scrambling on $100K a year in Toronto don’t get the new NDP government’s benefit. Tough titty.
While the couple gets to pay for the dental care of others, they get to enjoy inflation for their own dental care. In addition, they can no longer plead poverty while trying to haggle down prices because dentists will be able to distinguish the rich from the poor. The latter point is likely to boost my costs significantly.
by NormR
30 Mar 2023 12:10
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Federal Budget 2023
Replies: 63
Views: 6089

Re: Federal Budget 2023

Shakespeare wrote: 29 Mar 2023 23:21 Don't laugh at MAID. I'm in an old folks home. Do you really want to wait until you are drooling into your diapers?
Best to laugh at death while you can because it gets the last laugh.

I've no problem with MAID for the suffering elderly - or terminally ill. But reports it's being used by the poor to escape from homelessness is another matter (or young people suffering from depression). They deserve support rather than a ticket to the grave.
by NormR
29 Mar 2023 22:36
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Federal Budget 2023
Replies: 63
Views: 6089

Re: Federal Budget 2023

My personal reaction to the budget. I am happy for myself. For my children and my children's children, not so much. ... Housing is already in crisis and this budget, with its reheated programs and improvements on the edges, will do little to solve things. Subsidies/tax breaks to home buyers will increase demand, as will waves of new immigrants. Meanwhile, where is the increased supply, or measures to foster it? ... Defense and the military. What is that? I have told my children that I am willing to pay for Chinese lessons for their children. Not to worry, your grandchildren will have to leave Canada to live a good life. But smart move trying to instill filial piety in them via the language classes because they might feel too guilty to ditc...
by NormR
28 Mar 2023 20:26
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Federal Budget 2023
Replies: 63
Views: 6089

Re: Federal Budget 2023

Looks like they changed to rules on share donations via the AMT
by NormR
27 Mar 2023 18:05
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How would ChatGPT design a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1089

Re: Is it really that simple? The Two-Minute portfolio?

Bylo Selhi wrote: 27 Mar 2023 18:00 That name has a long history in its field(s): Acme Corporation
Baltimore Opera Hat Co. is where it's at.
by NormR
27 Mar 2023 16:43
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How would ChatGPT design a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1089

Re: Is it really that simple? The Two-Minute portfolio?

You might try these instead (via the GPT) ...

Acme Technologies Inc. (ACME)
GreenPower Energy Corp. (GPE)
Healthway Pharmaceuticals Inc. (HP)
The E-Commerce Giant Inc. (ECG)

I'm particular fond of The E-Commerce Giant. :roll:
by NormR
27 Mar 2023 16:12
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How would ChatGPT design a portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1089

Re: Is it really that simple? The Two-Minute portfolio?

Bylo Selhi wrote: 27 Mar 2023 15:39
ghariton wrote: 27 Mar 2023 11:55 On the other hand, for people who have more than two minutes to devote to their portfolios:

The short 100-question due diligence check list
I wonder how ChatGPT would answer :twisted:
A friend ran a ChatGPT article that recommended 5 stocks, all of which do not exist. So, it'd probably just make stuff up.
by NormR
26 Mar 2023 16:29
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Canadian Banks
Replies: 1889
Views: 233288

Re: Canadian Banks

Shakespeare wrote: 26 Mar 2023 13:05 One wonders if dividends were included in the article.
The article states that total returns are shown.
by NormR
21 Mar 2023 11:07
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: ChatGPT
Replies: 145
Views: 8406

Re: ChatGPT

brucecohen wrote: 21 Mar 2023 09:36 From Axios: Test finds that GPT-4 is more vulnerable to false narratives than the previous version.
The old GIGO problem. I suspect it'll become even worse as people try to seed the web with material specifically designed to influence future versions of GPT. (A big reason why google search has become less useful.)