Search found 225 matches

by 8Toretirement
12 May 2020 22:30
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Retirement Savings
Replies: 35
Views: 3192

Re: Retirement Savings

We save about 50% of our income but we make decent income and are close to retirement. But up to this year we travelled to Europe every year in the summer for 3 weeks and took several Vacations yearly. We both also have high pensions. That’s the background for this comment. I wonder if people don’t focus on retirement and funding it vice having a moderate goal and living life as that is what you have now. I joined the military at 18 and stayed for 21 years in the infantry, life can be short. I parachuted, lived in the outdoors, climbed mountains and backpacked and scuba dived around the world on leave. I have been in wars, lived in foreign countries, and soldiered on every continent. I continued backpacking around the world after I retired ...
by 8Toretirement
04 May 2020 09:48
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Buffett Buffet
Replies: 806
Views: 247083

Re: Buffett Buffet

WB may not yet recognize the golden age of the American empire could be starting to rot at its core. As I have mentioned elsewhere regarding Ray Dalio's 'book', every empire rises and then falls, generally on 150 year cycles, give or take 50 years. The US empire is now about 75 years old and may be starting to show some cracks. Populist president, society more divisive than ever before, expanding inequality between rich and poor, ruling class (in this case priveleged whites and especially white males) becoming more edgy about coming loss of power, increasing debt ratio, etc. are all signs that beset the Greeks, Romans et al. Look for likely continued slippage vis-a-vis other global powers over the next few decades. I would agree with this ...
by 8Toretirement
30 Apr 2020 10:23
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

No, I am an old Infantry guy, now a contractor for DND. Along the way I earned a finance degree so use that as the basis for my financial outlook. I travel a lot so I have a world perspective on different Countries economics from the ground up. Extensive Travel and a background in Finance is A bit of an eye opener. There is a big difference from what you observe and what is reported in the news.
by 8Toretirement
30 Apr 2020 09:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

I sold all my stock portion in January as I determined there was a pandemic before WHO called it. I think most people saw the coved-19 virus as a pandemic around that time. I was fairly sure the market was overvalued when I sold anyway. I am not a buy and hold investor this close to retirement as I am risk adverse to a certain extent. We both have pensions so our investments are for the extras in life. I bought back in on both sides of the bottom expecting to buy in tranches each week, but rode this back up without adding. Yesterday I started locking in my profits as I am two years from retirement. About 75% of our RRSPs are in GICs making around 2.5-3%. They start to roll off in May. I mostly focus on the taxable and TFSA accounts for inco...
by 8Toretirement
29 Apr 2020 22:33
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

Well George, what you are trying to describe is the dividend discount model.

P0 =div/r-g

P0is the value of the stock today
R is the risk-adjusted discounted rate. (Normally prime plus or the 10 year bond, or if comparing business investments the risk free investment a company can obtain).
G is the growth rate. ( determined by averaging the historical dividend growth rate or its expected earnings)

The higher the price the lower the expected growth rate all things considered dependent on earning.
The current risk-adjusted discount rate is very low
As earnings erode so too are dividends, this folds back into P0

Each week dividends are being cut or scrapped in relation to earnings.

None of the above leads to the stock prices in the market
by 8Toretirement
29 Apr 2020 21:17
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

Price should reflect current cash flows. You can only perform analysis for current and expected profits. On rare occasions you can project profits but that is a rare exception. To extrapolate an entire index and state that cash flows in the future will be higher and then drive up the market is wrong analysis. We know as a near certainty that the next quarter will be worse than the current quarter and that GDP is expected to be far worse than this quarter’s -4.8%. Any further out is speculation. It’s like saying a car is worth $40,000 but I will pay $50,000 for it today because it will be worth $60,000 in 7 years. Think about that, this is the discourse in the investment world right now. If earnings don’t matter then what does? You are buyin...
by 8Toretirement
29 Apr 2020 10:22
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

Thought I would update my post. Not sure if you are conversant with the Shiller CAPE. It’s the historical S&P 500 inflation adjusted PE. Currently at 26.81, historical mean average is 16.70. The current PE for the S&P 500 is 20.53, historical mean is 15.78 S&P 500 current earnings yield is 4.87, historical mean is 7.34. All stats from the current Shiller CAPE which is updated daily. Shiller allows statistical analysis of periods on a apples to apples basis. I am using the mean as it is a measure of mathematical central tendency which is more accurate than an average. It also represents the highest average so less deviance in the stats to real applications. I just want to emphasize that these numbers are based on trailing stats. ...
by 8Toretirement
25 Apr 2020 00:33
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

You logic fails to account for the Fed paying 75% of wages, which is keeping many more people hired. You also are not accounting for world trade. Europe for sure will not be buying as many goods. Oil is in the toilet, that hurts Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The US is a garbage fire, once the stimulation subsides there will be more layoffs, they will probably be in double digit unemployment, about 3 times what they were at. Add to that there is a second wave expected so we will limp along. Stocks in the Us are far too high so once they drop to a lower level there will be reduced capital spending. Banks will need to recapitalize so less loans and more stringent oversight. Don’t see a V anywhere in this mess. It looks like a recov...
by 8Toretirement
24 Apr 2020 21:49
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

I think that there will be remarkable resilience in the service sector. Dentists, chiropractors, massage therapists, hairdressers, nail salons, etc. All that will come back just as it was before and there will be a huge initial surge once the restrictions are lifted. I think that restaurants will come back because folks will be sick of sitting at home and making every meal for months on end. The capacity maybe reduced and the selection maybe slimmer due to permanent closures, but there's going to be lots of business for those that are left. The takeout/delivery option just doesn't really cut it for fine dining. I haven't talked to anyone that's particularly happy with that beyond looking at it as a temporary work around to the current situ...
by 8Toretirement
24 Apr 2020 11:07
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Regrets? CPP Early/Deferral
Replies: 63
Views: 8835

Re: Regrets? CPP Early/Deferral

For most of the posters here it doesn’t matter when you take it as long as it works with your plan. Many younger posters might not have made the switch in thinking to determine how best to withdraw funds in the most tax efficient manner during retirement. Tax strategies need to start about 5 years from retirement. CPP is a tax problem as it stacks with pensions, OAS, and RRSP funds to elevate marginal tax rates. The absolute sweet spot for tax @ 65 YOA is roughly $37,000 as you hit all the tax credits available. If you can structure your portfolio to enable layering of fully taxed and tax advantaged investments (capital gains, dividends), and TFSA income to keep your marginal tax rate around $37,000 you can significantly reduce taxes and th...
by 8Toretirement
24 Apr 2020 10:15
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

[ How do we get past the headline numbers of "20%+" - or is there a difference? The 20%+ is temporary and driven by regulation rather than demand. Most of these people, like your mother, are still in demand but prevented to work. She will stop being a statistic once the quarantine is lifted, and unless people start cutting their own hair or getting haircuts less often, she'll be fine. So, true unemployment is not 20%, it will soon get back to be the 5.6% (Canada) from February plus whatever portion of the extra 14%+ of jobs that will not immediately come back. We don't know what that will be. It will depend on post-quarantine goods and services demand. Many jobs in the US will be lost as there is a great amount of capital destruc...
by 8Toretirement
23 Apr 2020 20:35
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

If I fired up a time machine and took us all back to 2008 or any other large event in history, would you again say, Oh I dunno who long this will last, oh it's definitely different this time, oh I better sit this one out until the crystal ball gives me the signal? Funny comment , how about the Great Depression. This time is different, many firsts, and it seems business as usual for many investors. The markets are going up when they should be down, and let’s not play games that this is because the market is forward looking. If business doesn’t know what the heck is going on how can investors. People are buying based on where the markets were, not on fundamentals as there are none for most companies as they are withdrawing their guidance. I ...
by 8Toretirement
23 Apr 2020 14:17
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

Is that so Descartes, take a look at what have you bought posts. There were a lot of posts in March stating I would have bought more but I am all out of funds. I am offing the discussion that caution is warranted. No need to offer offence when none was posted. Have a civilized discussion.
by 8Toretirement
23 Apr 2020 11:18
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

I am not confused. Too many people are confused on what actually constitutes an investment. It’s all about the numbers. Any business can run into trouble especially insurance companies. The value of an investment is based solely on earnings and the potential to maintain or grow their earning over time. My degree is in Finance, in university we sat in exams with calculators and calculated earnings for companies, bonds, and alternative products based on economic prospects and corporate earnings. There was no leeway for speculation. Granted I am older now, however, I can’t fully value corporations anymore as they are using financial wizardry to elevate the numbers and earnings. The market has increasingly become a speculators market with unedu...
by 8Toretirement
23 Apr 2020 10:32
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Re: Are you buying aggressively

Regarding my list above. What is becoming clear is this is no normal recession. I saw a comment that the US always recovers. Maybe, always is too much certainty for me as we need to look at the financial numbers to get clarity about what will survive and what industries will die off. Another Comment was about the stimulus. Yes, there is great amounts of liquidity in the market but most of it is to bolster credit markets so they don’t freeze up. Much of this stimulus is really a backstop, meaning the economy will absorb the funds without creating inertia as it will only partially float the economy. 50% of employment in the US is generated by small business and the first tranche of funding covered about 1.2 million small businesses. For persp...
by 8Toretirement
22 Apr 2020 22:29
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Regrets? CPP Early/Deferral
Replies: 63
Views: 8835

Re: Regrets? CPP Early/Deferral

I am in the camp of taking CPP at 65, but primarily so we can top up to the next income tax bracket from 59-65 and draw out as much of our RRSPs as possible to get under the OAS clawback. We both have pensions so RRSP funds are working against us. We have most of our investments in taxable and TFSA’s as we saw this would be an issue and stopped funding our RRSPs a while ago.

However, there might be a case to be made for near retirees to draw early CPP to allow their investments to recover so they don’t draw down on funds during a recession.

I believe the difference is only around $20,000 by 80 from early or delayed. So really not much difference as the start times a revenue neutral for most people.
by 8Toretirement
22 Apr 2020 22:12
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Are you buying aggressively
Replies: 126
Views: 81403

Are you buying aggressively

I get the impression from reading posts that some investors are using the playbook from 2008 and buying stocks aggressively to the point of using all their free cash. Going all in if you will. Why? Are you convinced that markets always rebound, business doesn’t go bankrupt, or markets won’t stay flat for decades (Japan) or slowly decline. There are a lot of firsts out there 1. Negative oil Prices 2. Potentially the first true world recession, every country since the depression. 3. First time governments have capitalized whole economies. 4. First time western countries have provided virtually all unemployed Citizens a living wage. 5. First time western economies have closed a good portion of non essential business. 6. Canadian housing at all...
by 8Toretirement
22 Apr 2020 21:42
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

Playing devils advocate, but during a severe global recession, how can you tell since we only just started the recession. Past financials are worthless at this point, even the banks have some uncertainty since businesses can’t give guidance. There are a lot of modern day firsts in the market. It’s still early days and CDC is warning a second wave of covid19 could be worse than the first.
by 8Toretirement
22 Apr 2020 21:36
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: The Next Crash
Replies: 53
Views: 3328

Re: The Next Crash

We have been prepared for the next financial crash for several years as we are close to retirement. 1. We have no debt 2. We ran the numbers and had enough funds for retirement so we trimmed our TFSA and RRSP portfolios to about 35% stocks and bonds. Rest was in GIC’s. 3. Our taxable account we were sitting on 85000 cash. 4. In Jan it looked very much like a pandemic so I liquified all our stocks. Yeah I know market timing. Don’t care. It never made sense to me to hold tight on a downturn when you are close to retirement. I read in one of Bernstein’s interviews where he stated if you have enough stop playing the game (meaning stocks). That rang true to me so I kept this in mind the last few years where the market looked much too high. Slowl...
by 8Toretirement
02 Apr 2020 15:52
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Help! DB or DC?
Replies: 14
Views: 1200

Re: Help! DB or DC?

One issue to consider is if the DB pension is integrated with CPP. If it is then he will lose the bridge at 65.
by 8Toretirement
01 Apr 2020 21:07
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

Bought more Ishares FIE for my taxable account. Payout is fixed at .04 cents per share a month so it’s paying out over 9%. That’s not the total return. Last year I received just over 8% return of capital. However, it’s all Major financials: dividends, corp bonds, Preff shares and best I can tell banks have the best chance to keep paying their dividends. I also expect either the payout will decline 10-25% or more return of capital in a year as the bank preffered’s reset, but I won’t be holding it by then.

I am using FIE to bridge the gap until we get an idea of what will survive and keep their dividends intact. I am interested in XDV but don’t trust some of the current dividend streams.
by 8Toretirement
30 Mar 2020 21:03
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

I think ZPR is superior in safety to stocks at this point. Been buying on dips for my taxable account. Expect the dividend will erode over time as interest rates will probably take a while to recover. What you get on the dips is a good dividend with greater safety than bank dividends and some limited participation in the market when it stabilizes. You also get the dividend tax credit in taxable accounts as a sweetener. Seems like a decent trade off.
by 8Toretirement
15 Feb 2020 14:58
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Stages in retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 1404

Re: Stages in retirement

My mistake on the date. Should read 30 June. Will retire,

I have travelled extensively when I was younger so the overseas travel bug is less appealing to me. However, my wife still want to travel so I will tag along. Flying is a hassle, but once I am on the ground I enjoy it more. It’s getting the right mix of travel and other activities that will be the challenge.
by 8Toretirement
15 Feb 2020 10:50
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Stages in retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 1404

Stages in retirement

I am not retired yet. 31 June 2021 is the date we set. For those of us who have not retired, give us some insight into the non-financial aspects as there is scant real stories or information on actually being retired. It’s a bit of a mystery for those of us approaching retirement. Not including financial. 1. What were the greatest challenges the first few years. I keep hearing there is an adjustment period of several months to a year. Did you experience a period of time you just enjoyed being off, then started actually moving into what the media would call retirement. 2. Research says retirees go through stages. Any of you older retirees find you went through different stages. In other words, how has your retirement life changed over the ye...
by 8Toretirement
14 Feb 2020 16:38
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: For those who are retired, what is your daily routine?
Replies: 229
Views: 17299

Re: For those who are retired, what is your daily routine?

When I retired from the military at age 39 I was finishing a finance degree and travelling/diving during the semester breaks. 2 years later I was back inot the grind. We travel extensively/exercise/participate in family and grandkids activities currently when not working. Looks like we will have to find a few more activities to add to the mix to get more satisfaction out of retiremnt or risk boredom. Sitting at the computer, or rotating through mundane activities to fill time, just ticking off the days with the "anything I want philosophy", while not acually doing anything productive in retirement doesn't seem fullfilling. Not trying to upset anyone with this statement, just laying out my personal Philosophy. I feel my current job...