Search found 5019 matches

by parvus
07 Jan 2016 03:30
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Bylo's Absence.
Replies: 61
Views: 2758

Re: Bylo's Absence.

Sometimes, you just run out of things to say (though not things, in the wider world, that are disturbing/annoying). I've been a bit busy with work and domestic life, so I haven't had as much time -- or energy -- as before for my usual long-form pedantry. :wink:
by parvus
07 Jan 2016 02:43
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 2016 Predictions Contest
Replies: 72
Views: 6367

Re: 2016 Predictions Contest

Hmm.
This is a crap shoot, I know. So some of this is pure guess, and some of it quasi-reasoned. Pure guess is that the CAD and oil are in free fall -- as is gold (a remarkably irrational investment). Quasi-reasoned is that stock prices should increase modestly, given the absence of a recession (if we were in a recession, I rather suspect stock prices would, as in the financial crisis, go even higher -- as they did in 2009.)

So I'm figuring on a 5% increase for U.S. stocks, half of that for Canada (because of the commodities drag).

DOW: 18,100
TSX: 13,300
Gold: 900
Oil: 32
CAD: 0.65
by parvus
04 Jun 2015 20:27
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Bell Hell
Replies: 375
Views: 11166

Re: Bell Hell

Agree with adrian2. Let's keep it civil folks.
by parvus
01 Jun 2015 20:49
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: The Implications of Behavioral Finance
Replies: 145
Views: 49356

Re: The Implications of Behavioral Finance

Another book on the subject was recently published by Richard Thaler, Misbehaving: The Story Of Behavioral Economics . According to Michael Lewis in The Economist Who Realized How Crazy We Are - Bloomberg View There's now a fairly long list of intellectuals responsible for the spread of this subversive idea. Somewhere near the top of it is the economist Richard Thaler, who has just published an odd and interesting professional memoir, " Misbehaving ." It's odd because it's funnier and more personal than books by professors tend to be. It's interesting because it tells the story not just of Thaler's career but also of the field of behavioral economics -- the study of actual human beings rather than the rational optimizers of class...
by parvus
09 Apr 2015 20:33
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: Version 3.1 is alive!
Replies: 46
Views: 10410

Re: Version 3.1 is alive!

I recollect somone telling once that Hogtown time is really 35 minutes into the time zone ... so it's never accurate.
by parvus
02 Mar 2015 23:43
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Beer in Tronna 2015
Replies: 7
Views: 404

Re: Beer in Tronna 2015

Evidently. Coldest February in years, or so goes the media. I didn't notice it that much. Just tried to ignore it, as I always do. This year seems to have worked out.
by parvus
02 Mar 2015 00:37
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 2015 predictions contest
Replies: 107
Views: 12080

Re: 2015 predictions contest

That will end badly.

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by parvus
01 Mar 2015 23:14
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: Happy 10th birthday FWF
Replies: 34
Views: 10071

Re: Happy 10th birthday FWF

Well, 10 years in. I came here as a lurker. I didn't have anything much to say. Eventually I did find some things to say -- not terribly important in retrospect, but the important thing is to ask and ask back. You always learn. I am quite grateful to Norbert, Bylo, Shakes and Yielder. There is just so much to learn when you ask, and if you're afraid to ask, when you can listen. No question is wrong or stupid. Every answer says something. And is helpful. There's no tunnel vision, but instead, a spirited back and forth. My many thanks for that, for perspectives, and for respect.
by parvus
01 Mar 2015 23:02
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Beer in Tronna 2015
Replies: 7
Views: 404

Re: Beer in Tronna 2015

Mebbe April?
by parvus
04 Jan 2015 01:07
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Best Short Term Bond ETF for RRSP?
Replies: 30
Views: 4577

Re: Best Short Term Bond ETF for RRSP?

Agreed. I remember looking at it many years ago. It appears to be one of the rare funds that manages to beat the index consistently - even after RBC took over. I'm sure it had a lower MER but that class was closed to new money. PH&N still run the bond funds, along with Blue Bay out of the UK for international bonds. Only fund closing I can recall is PH&N High-Yield D & F (MER 88 bps). Capacity constraints, I believe, were the issue -- $1 billion is a lot for a high-yield mandate. In the meantime, RBC has introduced a high-yield fund, same MER, slightly better three-year performance (7.55 v 7.14). What's interesting is that some of PH&N's former top execs are now RBC GAM's top execs. Also, I would expect that RBC, PH&N a...
by parvus
03 Jan 2015 23:31
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2015
Replies: 388
Views: 36218

Clippings 2015

The indication for me that a market is too high and might crash, would be in terms of the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP. That's very imprecise, but I know of none better. Still, I would not bet very much on this. Stock Markets Hit High in 2014 as Bull Run Endured In this environment, the spotlight on the fundamental performance of companies on the stock market will intensify in 2015. Many Wall Street analysts contend that the market is reasonably valued right now, arguing that corporate earnings support current stock prices. The stocks in the S.&P. 500 index, for instance, trade at close to 16 times the profits that analysts expect for 2015. That multiple is more or less in line with the historical average. But the skepti...
by parvus
03 Jan 2015 22:29
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: What should I sell?
Replies: 18
Views: 1481

Re: What should I sell?

Contributing to existing positions in substantial CG situations is less tax efficient than using similar products that generate a new ACB. Unless you value simplicity, using new products might be worth considering once the debt is paid off. That is a very useful tip. So I could start buying VCN and VT instead and initiate new ACB's that would be liquidated first at withdrawal while continuing to let VCE/VTI/VEA/VWO run. I would pay less tax. I like that. :thumbsup: Yabbut, you won't avoid the ultimate CG hit unless markets tank. The key question is your current liquidity requirements, and new positions may make more sense for short-term investments if you're selling off old positions in tranches. But then you might also be selling at a los...
by parvus
03 Jan 2015 21:00
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Fixed income
Replies: 27
Views: 1985

Re: Fixed income

Although I wouldn't necessarily consider them fixed income, I hold two corporate bond funds (PHN&N-D, RBC-D), one of which has exposure to EM debt, and a PIMCO fund with exposure to mortgage securitizations. I think of these as speculative purchases, rather than reliable fixed income (IOW, I'm in it for the capital gains). Michael Milken lives!
by parvus
03 Jan 2015 20:20
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How much in RESP?
Replies: 56
Views: 3942

Re: How much in RESP?

As usual, I seem to be writing three different things at once, with varying moods. Sorry about that. I think trade schools are overrated (engineering, business, law, education, social work) and certainly not a ticket to a job. Don't go to university to get a job. I don't disagree with the potential value of university. I got a lot out my university education -- I spent 12 years -- but in the end it was for myself. It was the ancillary stuff -- friends, student council, student media -- that got me work. (And I still treasure my volumes of what friends call "bad German philosophy.") Thus my take: study what you like, and figure out how to make it a career, and get active outside the classroom. To OnlyMyOpinion: I think co-op progra...
by parvus
02 Jan 2015 23:00
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How much in RESP?
Replies: 56
Views: 3942

Re: How much in RESP?

From the sounds of it, the posters here do not believe in the traditional view of higher education: to expand the mind, and to make graduates more aware of the world around. History, philosophy, and great works of art and literature have their price too, and it is too much these days? Oh well, there is always YouTube... :) I dunno. Went to university because I was pissed off at the low wages offered to summer students. Decided to become an engineer. The classes were so pathetically taught at the University of Toronto that I switched to history instead (wanted to study Classics, a totally worthless job pursuit, but didn't have any Latin or Greek). And my fellow engineering students, apart from being social troglodytes, I discovered from my ...
by parvus
02 Jan 2015 21:08
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: A 2015 hedge fund contest
Replies: 54
Views: 6309

Re: A 2015 hedge fund contest

Oh dear, I was getting to like their sandwiches. 7-11 serves cheaper swill.

So, speaking of cheap swill, Dollarama!
DOL
by parvus
02 Jan 2015 20:59
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 2015 predictions contest
Replies: 107
Views: 12080

Re: 2015 predictions contest

Dow 19,500
TSX 15,000
Gold 1350
OIL 50
CAD 75 cents

Not a whole lot of thought or analysis here except for oil and how it has a knock-on effect.
by parvus
02 Jan 2015 20:57
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: A 2015 hedge fund contest
Replies: 54
Views: 6309

Re: A 2015 hedge fund contest

The Unknown Unknowns Fund

TSX Long:
HBC
Sherritt S
Tim's THI
Dollarama DOL

TSX Short:
Torstar TS/B
PostMedia PNC
Sears SCC

This is a quasi-Buffett approach, based on where I shop (except for Sherritt -- well, I like Cuban food).
by parvus
11 Dec 2014 00:48
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: Posts / Day on FWF
Replies: 23
Views: 6316

Re: Posts / Day on FWF

Congrats P_I

Or as WW would have put it:
Image
by parvus
02 Dec 2014 00:10
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Science is amazing
Replies: 818
Views: 55673

Re: Science is amazing

For centuries science has dispatched many predominantly- and fervently-held beliefs in the rubbish where they belong. Most often over the ultimately futile accusations of those objecting to the emergent scientific consensus that their opinions were not being "respected" and that science was conspiring to suppress their unscientific beliefs. Evolution, plate tectonics, special relativity, the disdain for and denial of science has a shameful and long pedigree. "Science" too has a shameful and long pedigree, from unethical experiments on humans, forced neutering, problematic drug treatments, thalidomide &c. We expect more from "science" than it can deliver. Mebbe the math and physics line up. I'm not so certa...
by parvus
01 Dec 2014 23:41
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Mawer Equity Funds
Replies: 31
Views: 4554

Re: Mawer Equity Funds

I've been invested with Mawer for a decade now, and I'm very happy with the results. They are an exceptional shop, and I don't quite know why. They are GARP-ish, whereas I'm inclined to value. But I can't argue with the results.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1453881 ... tar-awards
by parvus
17 Nov 2014 22:22
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing styles
Replies: 241
Views: 32771

Re: Investing styles

Oh dear, have we forgotten the lessons of tech crash so quickly? You know, a two-year bear market and 10 years for the S&P 500 to make up for its misbegotten gains. Nasdaq still hasn't come out of the drawdown that started in March 2000. Fourteen years of wasted money, and counting. So why would you go into "alternative assets"? Because with cap weighting, the price isn't always right. Quite frequently, it's wrong. A good hedge fund should be able to short that sucker, while the CEO of a beleaguered company cries foul and sues the short sellers. A good private equity firm should be able to finance a world-beater before it goes public, and thus reap rewards for the limited partners. A good real estate/infrastructure firm should...
by parvus
17 Nov 2014 21:37
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Steve Roth: Saving Money Won't Make You Rich
Replies: 29
Views: 4052

Re: Steve Roth: Saving Money Won't Make You Rich

the very word risk means luck is involved. :thumbsup: George That is not necessarily true. Take a corner store owner. He orders goods for resale. He takes a risk that he may not be able to sell the goods or if goods are time sensitive, he may have to take a 100% loss. But he makes a profit regardless. Reason being, he has experience and good judgement in his chosen field. Luck is if anything, a very minor part of his success. We all make risk-reward decisions every day. Seldom luck involved in their success. In fact we expect success. So perhaps (risk + good judgement) = gain? Most of time anyway. Getting wealthy in an honest way by being smart and working hard is not actually a bad thing. That storekeeper may count his wealth by the numbe...
by parvus
17 Nov 2014 00:35
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: PH&N High Yield Bond
Replies: 71
Views: 16774

Re: PH&N High Yield Bond

I wouldn't be so cynical. I've held the fund for five years now, but I can understand capacity limits, particularly in the high-yield space. PH&N has always been a low MER provider, so I don't think its about fees. But high-yield spreads are at their historical averages, so I can understand that there are no screaming buys anymore.

That's a function of the market, but also of the size of the fund. Become too big, then you are the market.
by parvus
17 Nov 2014 00:20
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: New BMO ETFs
Replies: 149
Views: 21592

Re: New BMO ETFs

Well, here's a webcast on active management, smart beta, marketing and mean reversion.