Search found 2840 matches

by pitz
07 Mar 2016 00:37
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155694

Re: Inflation

I vote deflation. Led by declines in the housing market, and the bankers tightening up credit significantly. Inventories seem to be pretty high at the car dealers, the house sellers, and even the grocery stores. Restaurants seem empty which means price wars are inevitable. Airfares have collapsed. The demand drivers of the past decade are rapidly disappearing.
by pitz
06 Mar 2016 21:35
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU distribution schedule
Replies: 2
Views: 518

Re: XIU distribution schedule

I'd suggest there is an impracticality of zeroing out all the specifics in time to issue the right distribution at the end of the year. IOW, how can an ETF know until Dec 31st what it takes to zero out their otherwise taxable income?? Dividends on 60 stocks don't just appear out of nowhere. The amounts and the ex-dividend dates are known, for most of the constituents, a month, sometimes even longer (as is the case for the banks) in advance. The 'issue' shouldn't be unique to just XIU either since the other funds (ie: XEG, XIC, etc.) are still on the pure quarterly distribution cadence. Upon further reading of the footnote, it also mystifies me, claiming 3 months of distributions will be paid when only 2 months have elapsed (ie: June to Aug...
by pitz
06 Mar 2016 20:54
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU distribution schedule
Replies: 2
Views: 518

XIU distribution schedule

Just noticed an interesting quirk today on the iShares website concerning the XIU distribution schedule for 2016: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/institutional/en/literature/brochure/distribution-schedule-2016-en-ca.pdf Basically put, they're moving to 5 distributions, 31-Mar, 30-Jun, 31-Aug, 30-Nov, and 5-January. Offering up the following footnote: Special Notes: 1. Distribution amounts per share in these months are expected to continue to reflect three full months of net portfolio income. 2. XIU may pay additional cash distribution in December if required to ensure that the fund itself does not become liable for income tax. Presumably there's a good reason for this, and on an annualized basis, the income from the fund doesn't change (other ...
by pitz
19 Dec 2014 00:42
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

Off-topic first initiated by Pitz and seconded by you. Your mention of pushing the envelope clearly implied that BPF is desperate. The 3 restaurant royalties (AW.UN, BPF.UN, SRV.UN) have/had been 5 baggers in total return and will continue to shine in total returns as compare with XIU in any 10 year cycle. The 4 sectors I mentioned up-thread had, have and will continue to outperform XIU for at least the next 10 year in total returns. So I will continue to be a stock picker rather than ETF for Canadian stocks. I highly doubt this (no sector or individual company can perpetually outperform the index, especially if they do something that is such a relative commodity like running restaurants). But I believe there's a BPF thread around somewher...
by pitz
18 Dec 2014 01:07
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

Getting back on topic, XIU has started expanding again. Up to 520M units, after bottoming out at 480M.
by pitz
10 Dec 2014 17:29
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/institutional/en/literature/press-release/pr-2014-11-26-en-ca.pdf XIU = 0% re-invested distributions. So I guess all my fears were unfounded. However, the distribution load of XEG is quite high and owners of it should be prepared. This is very poor total return for XIU. For 10 years total returns, the average of the pipe lines, the telcos and the restaurant royalties will most likely be about 3 times better. I know the restaurant royalties on average are more than 3 times better than XIU but non of those are in XIU. Indeed, but the whole point of an ETF is that one doesn't pick and choose sectors. Yesterday's outperformers are likely tomorrow's underperformers. I know BPF is now putting restaurants into towns wit...
by pitz
25 Nov 2014 14:20
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Snowbirds and Cell Phones
Replies: 63
Views: 11481

Re: Snowbirds and Cell Phones

Get an unlocked phone (or have one of your existing phones unlocked -- just find the nerdiest kid you know, and ask how, if you can't figure it out easily!). Swap SIM cards acquired for month-to-month postpaid, or pre-paid plans. Problem solved!

Its usually better for your overall financial health if you don't buy a cell phone on a "contract". The implied financing cost of doing such is usually fairly high, approaching credit card rates of interest.
by pitz
25 Nov 2014 14:14
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: China/Russia ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 609

Re: China/Russia ETFs

The economy and the "stock market" can be two entirely separate things (arguably, the same has occurred in Canada -- with economic growth in most of the past 6-7 years, yet the TSX index is barely back to its 2008 highs). Another factor is that ETFs are often quoted in US dollars, and, at least as is the case of the Ruble, it has depreciated significantly. As have many other currencies.

The Shanghai Index (ie: this) is down from levels 4-5 years ago.

Could be a contrarian buying opportunity. I know I've gone on record stating that I've been buying the VWO ETF lately on account of it being the only major asset class in my balanced portfolio of ETFs that hasn't really done very well in the past 5 years of 'recovery'.
by pitz
25 Nov 2014 01:08
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

ETF Insight web site tracks Canadian ETF fund flows on a month by month basis: http://www.etfinsight.ca/?s=ETF+flows http://www.etfinsight.ca/?p=26396 Thanks.. -$1.7B for the September report. A Google search indicates that XIU may very well be overwhelmingly institutional money: http://forums.redflagdeals.com/only-4b-non-institutional-money-xiu-1312418/ Over $7 billion in XIU assets are held by institutional clients, at home and around the world, looking for an efficient, cost-effective way to access the Canadian market. When it comes to Canada, XIU is their first stop. So maybe the institutions pulled away? But then again, would institutions be doing the same to TD Canadian Index, a fund I would presume is mostly non-institutional? The p...
by pitz
25 Nov 2014 00:57
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

I am not an ETF investor but I have persevered through this thread, in spite of the early on comment that XIU has just now reached the same level as before or during 2008. I had huge losses during the crash but was back even by the end of 2009 or early 2010. I had been seriously considering ETFs for simplicity and age related issues, but this thread makes it obvious that for, me because of ability or blind luck, ETF's are just too expensive. And they are obviously not as simple as I thought. I will carry on plodding away at my stock picking. Although we haven't yet come to a precise consensus with certainty as to the outcome, I wouldn't let these events turn you off of ETFs altogether. The carryforwards appear to be more than enough to off...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 23:15
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

Ouch!!!!! Hopefully the carryforwards are enough to keep the actual net CG down/eliminate it.
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 22:20
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

I'm not sure why XIU would have such a high turnover but it would explain the higher realized capital gains. Why the capital gains are not distributed at year end is another question. I think we resolved the reason why capital gains were not distributed last year -- significant loss carry-forwards. And probably the same situation this year. Additionally, some of the 'suspended' losses will be available this year for deduction that were not available in previous years. So I am satisfied that my concerns of a large distribution occurring in XIU were relatively unfounded. However, the high turnover number does bring up an interesting question, and that is, just why is this happening in an index fund with the documented creation/destruction me...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 21:09
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: TFSA 2014
Replies: 193
Views: 17143

Re: TFSA 2014

One problem with expanding the TFSA limits is that it reduces the potential funds available to the marketplace for entrepreneurship and non-regulated venture capital. In addition, it reduces the ability of the public to leverage to correct for imbalances in asset pricing. On the first point, entrepreneurship and venture capital, if an individuals' money is tied up in a TFSA, it must go into a very narrow range of highly regulated publicly traded investments. Most new businesses, at least initially, do not pursue a listing or a private placement, hence, TFSA's would be a pool of capital increasingly unavailable. Today TFSA's are a drop in the bucket, but 20-30 years from now, they, along with RRSPs, may very well make up an overwhelming majo...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 14:35
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: XIU Bleeding Assets
Replies: 68
Views: 5220

Re: XIU Bleeding Assets

Perhaps with all the volatility, we're seeing investors go in and out of equities; but when they sell out of XIU they go back into another one for fee-related reasons. Sure, but up-thread, there was only growth of, in the neighbourhood of a $1B in the "lower-cost" alternatives, while XIU had bled on the order of $4B. And even TD Canadian Index had shed quite a bit. Sounds more like Canadians just giving up on Canadian equities more than anything. OK here is a possible theory for capital gains. These funds accumulate dividend payments in a pool and flush that pool out every 3 months. Suppose we're 2.5 months into that cycle. A large institutional investor tenders some creation units of XIU in exchange for the basket of shares. iSh...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 01:55
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Infrastructure spending?
Replies: 3
Views: 1810

Re: Infrastructure spending?

Kundan Lal Rana wrote:Mr. Dodge’s article, you mentioned here, really puts a convincing argument that lower interest rates is what you should be investing more than you have been. There is also a key chance to invest more heavily without endangering Canada’s long-run budget prospects.
There's been a lot of investment because of the low rates. Just that its gone into housing, rather than infrastructure. Didn't Dodge leave the BoC because he was frustrated that the government had created policy to 'prefer' housing investment, by way of the CMHC, rather than letting market forces allocate capital in a more natural manner?
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 01:48
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: What should my target spread be when negotiating an exchange
Replies: 4
Views: 825

Re: What should my target spread be when negotiating an exch

Interactive Brokers. On CAD$/USD$ this evening, Bid = 1.1228, Ask = 1.1229.

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/i ... sion&p=fx1

0.2 bp * trade value, $2 minimum.

So on $40k converted from CAD$ to USD$, you'll pay 0.0001*20000 = $4 + $2 = $6 for the trade in total in spreads + commission.

Compare/contrast this with several hundred $$ charged by a typical bank-affiliated retail "discount" brokerage in Canada for the same transaction. Robbery!
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 01:18
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: "American Greed"
Replies: 7
Views: 1182

Re: "American Greed"

I've never seen the show, but it certainly can be argued that fraud is pernicious at almost all levels of the capital markets and monetary system today. Most of it in plain view, like the housing bubble, currencies that aren't officially redeemable in anything, fraudulent accounting (ie: the non-GAAP presentations/"earnings calls" of most tech companies and REITs these days), etc.

Diversification, being cynical to the point of insanity, refusing to hop on bandwagons, and contrarianism are some of the best ways of protecting oneself.
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 01:04
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: ETF's - how to pick?
Replies: 12
Views: 1865

Re: ETF's - how to pick?

I hear a lot of this "its easy to beat the index" nonsense. The problem is, most who manage to do so, only do so by omitting entire sectors or effectively marrying themselves to a very particular strategy which isn't likely to be valid in all economic cycles. If one just omitted Nortel in the 2000-present era, they would have easily outperformed the TSX. A simple choice, I know, but a choice which would have caused dramatic under-performance in the 1990-2000 timeframe. Likewise, omitting the gold miners over the past few years would have proven to be very profitable, but as a sort of inversion of Nortel , at some point, the gold miners, the chronic under-performers as of late, are going to be the chronic over -performers. At what ...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 00:40
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Long Term Use of Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 2020

Re: Long Term Use of Leveraged ETFs

I've leveraged for the past decade, including during the 2008/2009 crash. Let's just say, margin calls actually helped me out immensely and preserved my ability to recover all of my losses and grow, even though the index has barely returned to the 2008 peak and most dividends paid by such have been sucked up in interest finance payments. The problem with options, is that they simply won't reduce your notional exposure when you've already lost a lot. With options, if you have, say, $1M in notional exposure, you keep losing money based on the $1M notional exposure, until your options expire out-of-the-money (and good luck selling options to reduce the notional exposure to the market -- nobody wants calls when they think the market is going to...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 00:21
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Norbert's gambit - Can$ to US$ or vice versa
Replies: 1785
Views: 325578

Re: Norbert's gambit - Can$ to US$ or vice versa

Of course, since swaps were banned by the discount brokers in the registered/TFSA accounts, if someone wants to change the asset allocation on funds already committed, they continue to be stuck doing Norbert's gambit inside the RRSP/TFSA itself. Or, if doing a transaction near the end of the year, in the case of a TFSA, doing a TFSA withdrawal, and re-contribution in the new year if TFSA limits are a concern. I don't think all swaps as such were banned by all brokers. If I remember correctly, what the CRA did was prohibit "advantage" swaps, designed to increase the value of the RRSP - there's weird things you can do with property, thinly traded stocks with fuzzy fair market values, and so on. But I think something vanilla, like s...
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 00:11
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: BMO Nesbitt Burns Fires any Clients not paying $500 in fees
Replies: 4
Views: 1781

Re: BMO Nesbitt Burns Fires any Clients not paying $500 in f

Better to be fired, I guess, than to have some less-than-fully-ethical broker decide to inappropriately churn a smaller account simply to meet a minimum profit per account target (at the very least, to pay for stamps and account statements!).
by pitz
24 Nov 2014 00:04
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Use of leveraged commodity ETF while creating a position
Replies: 5
Views: 1345

Re: Use of leveraged commodity ETF while creating a position

I want to put most of money in companies that have direct access to the raw materials, thus reducing the impact on current prices effecting existing production. Many a'investor have bet the farm on one sector, in one industry, and worse, in one specific commodity, only to see such go out of favour for longer than their risk tolerance may permit. I'd suggest you read as much of finiki as possible, in particular, the sections relating to creating balanced portfolios, rebalancing, ETFs, etc. Nobody on this forum can tell you, with any certainty, where oil is going to be over the next few years. Over the long term, there is no such thing as a 'safe' sector. Only balance will help most, over the long term, preserve and grow assets. One trick po...
by pitz
23 Nov 2014 23:55
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Elderly relative's car
Replies: 20
Views: 2278

Re: Elderly relative's car

Just set up a lease agreement, from the mother, to the son. Just like the car dealers do. What's the big deal about this? The bankrupt's Estate can't seize a leased car to satisfy the creditors. Of course, if the bankrupt son is under the supervision of a trustee, consent would have to be obtained in the usual fashion. Provincial licensing authorities and insurance companies usually don't have any problem writing insurance policies for leased cars. When the bankrupt emerges from bankruptcy, certainly the bankrupt could make an offer, at fair market value, to the lessor to extinguish the lease. Just make sure everything is on reasonable commercial terms so there is no perception of using such a transaction to transfer value to a specific cre...
by pitz
23 Nov 2014 23:48
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Norbert's gambit - Can$ to US$ or vice versa
Replies: 1785
Views: 325578

Re: Norbert's gambit - Can$ to US$ or vice versa

TD Direct Investing is offering US$ component in RSP and TFSA end of November 2014. Any insights on how this would affect Norbert's gambit? Makes it increasingly unnecessary, IMHO. As it presumably would be possible to contribute USD$ directly to a USD$ RRSP, and then make purchases accordingly in USD$ (with a contribution tax receipt generated for the equivalent in CAD$). I think most of us know about options such as Interactive Brokers where USD$ can be purchased at dramatically lower all-in commissions than the typical 2% charged by the bank brokers without the significant risk of slippage involved with Norbert's "gambit". Of course, since swaps were banned by the discount brokers in the registered/TFSA accounts, if someone wa...
by pitz
23 Nov 2014 23:30
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you buy? What might you buy? (2014)
Replies: 480
Views: 59746

Re: What did you buy? What might you buy? (2014)

More VWO @ $42. Don't see a lot of value in the "developed" world (ex-Canada, of course, if you can really call Canada 'developed').