Search found 1104 matches

by FinEcon
18 Jan 2024 21:04
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: The Plight of the Y2K Retiree
Replies: 204
Views: 30876

Re: The Plight of the Y2K Retiree

You knew - and we all knew - by 2005 that your fulsome RRB bet had paid off. Yes. Although I still haven't figured out why. The investment was meant to be purely defensive -- a preservation of capital. George You know why!...and we're happy for you :beer: My theory is that pre-2000 few people want to have anything to do with RRBs because they could make 20% to 40% a year in Internet stocks. So RRB real yields got as high as 5%. Then the Internet bubble burst and all those gains turned into losses. And those of us who'd bought RRBs even at a "mere" 3% real made decent, risk-free returns for the next 20 years. I think that may be partly true but more likely is that it was severely underappreciated just how epic a 4-5% risk free rea...
by FinEcon
13 Dec 2023 07:53
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155677

Re: Inflation

ghariton wrote: 21 Nov 2023 17:42
OptsyEagle wrote: 21 Nov 2023 11:40 So to clarify this a little more precisely, when it comes to the effect of mortgage costs on CPI. Is CPI measuring the change in mortgage rates or the actual change that people are paying for their mortgages, at the time the measurements are taken?

Those things may sound the same on the surface but as we know due to different timing of mortgage renewal terms, they are not.
I tried to explain the connection between housing costs and inflation in this post from some two years ago. It is a rather long post, but then the connection is rather complex.

George
Thank you for taking the time to contribute this level of knowledge to the forum
by FinEcon
31 Jul 2023 19:06
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Sedar filings
Replies: 7
Views: 643

Re: Sedar filings

It's not just you, the new SEDAR is rubbish. The old one was pure gold, basic AF and traversable at warp speed for those of us who were using the net in the 90s.
by FinEcon
17 Jul 2023 13:00
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2023)
Replies: 193
Views: 30508

Re: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2023)

I'm looking at Crowdstrike (CRWD), a cloud-based cybersecurity firm whose income comes from a subscription model. It was founded in 2012 and went public in 2019. Its price, at around $150, has tripled since its IPO, but it has been a bit rocky throughout the covid years. (That's just a description, not a claim of causation) It seems to be growing fast. They had 2309 employees in 2020 but have expanded by 50% each year and in 2023 now have 7273 employees worldwide. 237million shares which makes the company worth ~ $35.5 billion. They are roughly breaking even with a subscription income of ~ $2.6 billion a year, up about 46% from last year. Their product seems top-notch. In a head to head “blind” MITRE ATT&CK evaluation their product out...
by FinEcon
16 Apr 2023 10:53
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Books by Peter Zeihan
Replies: 4
Views: 1203

Re: Books by Peter Zeihan

Great stuff, highly recommended.

Start with the most recent, the one you mentioned. The YouTube content is a good start but given the breadth of material, far too sliced up and devoid of context. For reference, the End of the World is Just the Beginning is 16-17 hours in audio format. Read or listen to this stuff with a huge grain of salt. Its great for fact collection and pondering bigger picture themes but listen to Mr. Zeihan's analysis on areas and/or subjects you know well (i.e. Canada specific, province/city specific, industry specific) to calibrate your thinking with respect to his opinions. The sheer breadth of material he covers ensures repeated bouts of Gell-Mann amnesia.
by FinEcon
27 Feb 2023 18:38
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Buffett Buffet
Replies: 806
Views: 247106

Re: Buffett Buffet

Love Munger "Using volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is (1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or (2) the risk of inadequate return" - Charlie Munger That works for BRK and other large companies that have steady positive cashflow and essentially an infinite time horizon. It also works for pension funds, that have a very long time horizon. It's not such a good approach for a retiree that has perhaps a 30 year time line, with not enough income to cover fixed and non-discretionary expenses so they need to withdraw portfolio capital for living expenses. For those people, volatility is risk. It's more precisely defined as Sequence of Return Risk, and has been proven to be a large risk for retirees that experience...
by FinEcon
27 Feb 2023 18:33
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What are your top holdings? (2013-2020 and counting)
Replies: 261
Views: 29979

Re: What are your top holdings? (2013-2020 and counting)

ig17 wrote: 06 Jan 2022 17:41 Okay, I will play.

Top 10 as of EOD today

1. Google 18.30%
2. Visa 9.05%
3. Amazon 8.25%
4. Facebook 7.96%
5. Moody's 7.34%
6. S&P Global 6.26%
7. Mawer Global Small Cap 6.15%
8. MasterCard 5.64%
9. Liberty Broadband 5.10%
10. Berkshire Hathaway 4.21%

Percentages are portfolio weights.

Combined Top 10 weight: 78.25%

I view Visa and MasterCard as one position. Ditto Moody's and S&P Global.
Now this is a stock portfolio! #7 and #10 aside, is your selection criteria market dominance + high ROE + high revenue growth? Resist the urge to trim your winners as time goes on.
by FinEcon
25 Feb 2023 10:14
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Intel (Symbol-INTC)
Replies: 58
Views: 4463

Re: Intel (Symbol-INTC)

Shakespeare wrote: Some background information (the dividend cut) would have been useful.
Shakes the dividend cut is meaningless, its the reasons behind the cut which are interesting. Not a few months ago the current CEO stated they would maintain the dividend which was laughable given their financial situation combined with their future capex needs.
by FinEcon
24 Feb 2023 10:16
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Intel (Symbol-INTC)
Replies: 58
Views: 4463

Re: Intel (Symbol-INTC)

Interesting how this is playing out. I don't think the current situation ought to surprise anyone. Stock price changes aside, nothing which has happened so far was remotely "un-seeable" by anyone who took a bit of time to look into the situation. I know I'm a broken record on the issue of an investor due diligence but analyzing a business and its financials really can save you from this sort of thing almost all of the time. If any of you guys are still holding or thinking about bargain hunting, I would take a few minutes to back of the envelope the non-optional near and medium term capex outlays and then think about how well you are or are not being paid to take on what amounts to a not insignificant amount of risk. Be diligent, c...
by FinEcon
27 Sep 2022 18:12
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Canadian Banks
Replies: 1889
Views: 233284

Re: Canadian Banks

Yes, I read it several years ago. He was fairly complimentary (including about myself) but his point of view was quite limited because his primary sources weren’t as representative as they could have been. Seems to me that he interviewed only a handful of execs (me not included) especially Keith Gray who was the CEO of TDDI during its growth period. Anyway, the period between 1995 (purchase of Waterhouse) and the expansion into the US over the following 10-12 years were exciting indeed. He spells out a fair number of persons interviewed in the acknowledgements section and admittedly as a curious reader, I did wonder about the the weighting of various persons opinions. Nothing unique to this author or this book, its a challenge for any auth...
by FinEcon
27 Sep 2022 11:25
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Canadian Banks
Replies: 1889
Views: 233284

Re: Canadian Banks

Opinion: Who’s to blame for Scotiabank’s CEO succession mess? The clumsy board of directors - The Globe and Mail Good managers beget good managers. In the worst, it breeds a culture built on fear, because everyone is terrified of the consequences if they don’t toe the line. During Brian Porter’s tenure running Bank of Nova Scotia, the latter has been true far too often. It will take years to recover from that sort of mess. Mulholland's technique (fire everybody) worked for a year IIRC. After that he was a disaster (or maybe that's someone else). P.S. I've worked in a culture of fear. In the end its counterproductive. The best employees leave and the rest are too scared to sh*t. Yes, agree. Very unusual for the banks to go outside for a CEO...
by FinEcon
19 May 2022 09:20
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Trading Around a Core Position or Churning
Replies: 34
Views: 9367

Re: Trading Around a Core Position or Churning

In think avoiding time commitments which result in making $15k decision when you have a $1M+ portfolio makes more sense than worrying about it. In your shoes I would sit back and resolve to buy things you already know, like and probably hold when the market tanks. Then buy big and use some small % of margin. Whatever you feel confident with doing. Think back to Q1-Q3 of 2020. What did you load up on? Why or why not?

Already wealthy people are perfectly positioned to buy assets at steep discounts when other people are shitting themselves.
by FinEcon
10 Nov 2021 15:13
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Questrade (the former misnamed TradeFreedom thread)
Replies: 202
Views: 36887

Re: Questrade (the former misnamed TradeFreedom thread)

What a piece of trash that new interface is, long live the old one! Once again a huge thank you to the FWF community.
by FinEcon
22 Oct 2021 13:26
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: REITS COVID-19 and Beyond
Replies: 91
Views: 25645

Re: REITS COVID-19 and Beyond

Is there any evidence that REIT's owning residential housing is driving up rents/prices? In a more general sense, lets think about our words a bit. Residential, what does that mean exactly? Apartment blocks, mobile home parks, single family houses? Condo towers? Assisted living facilities? Private prisons? A lazy and irresponsible media strikes again. In Canada there is not, its one of those things laypeople think because they watch too much American media. Invert, always invert. You want to invest in a REIT which primarily owns single family houses in Canada, which REIT is that? I'll save y'all the effort. It doesn't exist. There are a couple of turds in the private REIT space that have stated they would like to do as Blackstone has done ...
by FinEcon
02 Jun 2021 10:23
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Pembina Pipeline Corp (Symbol PPL-T) (formerly PIF.UN)
Replies: 137
Views: 29535

Re: Pembina Pipeline Corp (Symbol PPL-T) (formerly PIF.UN)

I stand corrected. It appears Brookfield does think it can compete for this deal. IPL must have a lot of tax losses on the books or something I am missing. Hopefully PPL walks away but it will be interesting to see. I doubt PPL can use cash and if they do increase their bid, with stock, the corresponding stock price drop will probably decrease it as quickly as it is made. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-brookfield-raises-offer-buy-115409237.html Its not a question of can they compete, Brookfield though its very structure has literally orders of magnitude more capital than PPL. Its a question of what price for ownership/control and what price is the consolation prize of FMV gains on their existing IPL interest. Brookfield wins either way, ...
by FinEcon
02 Jun 2021 10:16
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Inter Pipeline Ltd (Symbol-IPL) (formerly IPL.UN)
Replies: 364
Views: 67280

Re: Inter Pipeline Ltd (Symbol-IPL) (formerly IPL.UN)

AltaRed wrote: 02 Jun 2021 10:07 Unfortunately, I own both PPL and BAM so will be on both sides, win and lose. :? I think PPL is the more appropriate fit but an improvement in the 'all stock' offer would start to feel like dilution.
Due to the size and indirectness of participation, this is a non issue for owners of BAM. It's a win no matter how it plays out for owners of BIP/BIPC.
by FinEcon
26 Apr 2021 10:35
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Diversification:
Replies: 96
Views: 26781

Re: Diversification:

This is the exact type of portfolio that has a very high likelihood of not only providing a reasonable absolute return but utterly trouncing the TSX over a decade. Maybe, I didn’t check all the stocks but looked like some high beta small caps in there. Each to their own and different goals than I have for my portfolio. I’m sure there are other portfolios that would achieve the same thing. I personally think magnitude (portfolio size) and goals have a bearing on which strategy investors may use but not limited to these only. It wasn't a comment on the specific securities in question but the structure and makeup of the portfolio. This is what a concentrated portfolio looks like. A year from now the weights could change markedly. With this ty...
by FinEcon
25 Apr 2021 23:18
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Diversification:
Replies: 96
Views: 26781

Re: Diversification:

I don't recall Deaddog ever sharing his stock picks before, and it seems to me that the best way to convince us of the superiority of his method that he is so adamant about, would be to disclose his four or five current holdings. Lots of posts years ago (Day trading thread) Didn’t produce much discussion so I quit posting. Lots of small losses. Current holdings: ACO.x __8.75% of portfolio ADT.b___8.5% of portfolio BRE ____17% of portfolio BNS _____23% of portfolio CLIQ ____6.5% of portfolio CWX ____10.2% of portfolio SPOT ----- ~1% of portfolio Cash_____~20% of portfolio. (Just Sold BHC and WELL. 40% gain on BHC and breakeven on WELL) This is the exact type of portfolio that has a very high likelihood of not only providing a reasonable abs...
by FinEcon
12 Apr 2021 18:54
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: How are high dividend payout ratios sustainable?
Replies: 25
Views: 6526

Re: How are high dividend payout ratios sustainable?

Not sure if it’s been mentioned yet, but dividends are not always paid out in cash … companies that have a robust in-house DRIP plan can significantly reduce their cash dividend payouts if they issue DRIP shares from treasury … yield is still measured on the basis of the reported dividend, but that money comes right back into the company coffers through the sale of newly issued share capital Yes. I remember wondering how such a plan differs from a share split for those in the DRIP plan. For example, a 5% in kind dividend looks to me like a 21-for-20 stock split. What am I missing? George That it happens annually in perpetuity? At the end of n periods how many shares are outstanding and how much additional capital has the firm received and ...
by FinEcon
25 Oct 2020 12:12
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Cenovus (Symbol-CVE)
Replies: 18
Views: 1927

Re: Cenovus (Symbol-CVE)

scomac wrote: 25 Oct 2020 11:48
AltaRed wrote: 25 Oct 2020 09:52 As I mentioned in the Husky thread, it will be interesting whether Cenovus ultimately keeps much, if any, of Husky's Cdn refining and retail assets. They clearly are not in the same league as the big boys. Maybe the Lloyd upgrader....
Is it fair to speculate that they may blow out the retail assets to aggregators like Couche Tarde or Parkland?
It's highly likely in my view. The instant capital injection an owner can realize on these assets is worth far more to integrated producers than the income stream from an annoying and highly competitive unrelated business of running stores.
by FinEcon
03 Sep 2020 17:43
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

Splits are technically meaningless. They might allow a few retail investors to invest in 2-3 shares they might not be able to do otherwise, but their combined impact would be about the same as that of a gnat. Savvy investors would (should) not be buying into irrational exuberance just because of 5 to 1 stock splits (if that is what they were). Totally agree. Sure, there's a physiological lift from a few that think it's a payday, but nothing ever comes from it. Business as usual. ltr There's also an element of selection bias in that companies whose stock price has gone sideways or depreciated are unlikely to split (not reverse split) their equity. Ergo, stocks currently experiencing high positive momentum are those who split and there's no ...
by FinEcon
18 Aug 2020 02:06
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Re: Housing Market 2020
Replies: 150
Views: 16053

Re: Housing Market 2020

Marcus Aurelius wrote: 17 Aug 2020 23:40 There was an excellent article just today on the issues around the shortage of rental construction:

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2020/08/17 ... d-herring/

This is generally an excellent site -- obviously mostly interested in the Greater Victoria market, but his wider observations are well-researched.
Thank you for this link. I concur it is well researched and well thought out
by FinEcon
15 Aug 2020 21:01
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Buffett Buffet
Replies: 806
Views: 247106

Re: Buffett Buffet

Considering WB's thoughts on gold and the size of the position, the position is Todd or Ted. The position changes that are worth noting are the massive shifting of bank stocks. Also a big vote of non confidence in the airlines. Didn't Berkshire have a significant holding in Boeing in the past? They don't seem to hold any now. Yep the airlines being dumped was when Norm said. I can't remember the exact timing but he recall thinking he sounded rather pessimistic in the shareholder meeting. Not sure about Boeing but they have significant exposure to aerospace via Precision Castaparts. Warren's trade on APPL is likely the most profitable common security trade (in absolute dollars) ever made. All these wankers writing articles about Buffett has...
by FinEcon
15 Aug 2020 11:52
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Buffett Buffet
Replies: 806
Views: 247106

Re: Buffett Buffet

Considering WB's thoughts on gold and the size of the position, the position is Todd or Ted. The position changes that are worth noting are the massive shifting of bank stocks.