Search found 216 matches

by bender
17 Jul 2009 21:32
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Stereo Systems
Replies: 20
Views: 455

Good audio lasts forever, but AV receivers (home theatre stuff) have changed a lot in the last decade. An older amp thats warm for music may not be any good for watching movies. My bitch with many home theatre set-ups is that they are loud for music and sound effects but too quiet on vocals. The centre speaker is the most important speaker in the set, since this is where the voice is usually mixed and it ties the voice to the screen. The new AV receivers (even the cheap Yamahas) have better decoders and improved balance for vocals IMO. If you are having trouble 'hearing' your home theatre consider updating the amp or centre speaker. Also big speakers that sound good in the store may not be right for low levels at home. FWIW I'd pass on the ...
by bender
17 Jul 2009 20:58
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: Management changes
Replies: 17
Views: 4407

Flights of Fancy wrote:Hooray and congratulations! All the best to the new team. :)
Big ditto!
by bender
12 Jun 2009 21:23
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: How to rebalance foreign currency allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1847

David Swenson's "Unconventional Success" book: my notes say he is unclear on whether forex exposure in general is good or not I knew I saw this somewhere, its in Pioneering Portfolio Management, pg 171 Fortunately finance theorists conclude that some measure of foreign exchange exposure adds to portfolio diversification. Unless foreign currency positions constitute more than 20 percent or 25 percent of portfolio assets, currency exposure serves to reduce overall portfolio risk. Note that is from USD perspective, and I would guess that a CAD portfolio can safely hold a higher foreign content. FWIW I'm 35-40% foreign -- not saying its right or wrong but I'm not losing any sleep over it ;). USD holdings have definitely smoothed the ...
by bender
03 May 2009 00:11
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: For the Seth Klarman fans
Replies: 24
Views: 5994

Jo Anne wrote:Co-worker: So, do anything interesting on Saturday night? Watch the hockey game?

Jo Anne: Didn't see the game, but I watched a one-hour video conference with Seth Klarman speaking at the Ben Graham Center for Value Investing, Richard Ivey School of Business. You?

Co-worker: <walks away glancing back at me suspiciously> Uh, we went out for pizza.
:lol: Its not so bad... I'm overseas, so its Sunday morning for Seth (with a large coffee). And pizza was Friday night :D
by bender
02 May 2009 21:09
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: For the Seth Klarman fans
Replies: 24
Views: 5994

A one hr video conference with Seth Klarman speaking at the Ben Graham Center for Value Investing, Richard Ivey School of Business. Recorded Mar 17, 2009.

Good stuff :)
by bender
12 Apr 2009 21:07
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: 10 Questions for John Bogle
Replies: 175
Views: 83872

Is the quote referring to the Gordon equation

return = div + div growth
= div + inflation + real div growth
= 4.5 (historical) + 3 + 2 = 9.5%

Compound away...
by bender
11 Apr 2009 22:35
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2009
Replies: 321
Views: 34523

Cheers Norbert. From another value shop: an easy-to-read commentary from Century Management Is inflation in our future? I believe this guy is another rare old school value manager that eats the S&P for breakfast (but this is macro stuff). While predicting the future in these uncertain times is challenging, we believe that the most probable outcome is an uptick of inflation as the economy recovers, which will moderate as the Federal Reserve unwinds its balance sheet. We believe, however, that economic growth will be sluggish (after a possible bounce resulting from depleted inventory levels being rebuilt) and that unemployment will be stubbornly high. We believe that the likelihood of high inflation (greater than 10% price increases) is l...
by bender
10 Apr 2009 23:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2009
Replies: 321
Views: 34523

Investing wisdom: excerpts from Seth Klarmans annual letter The value of not being sure
by bender
10 Apr 2009 21:10
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Enough to Live On (2009)
Replies: 597
Views: 44084

$40,000 in expenses per year ... Retires at 50 ... 100% fixed income portfolio at retirement. ... Fixed income returns about 2% real. I wonder about hitting the eject button too early and having a loss of lifestyle because of optimistic expense estimates. A 50 year old has ~30 years in the workforce (perhaps only 20 depending on education) and 40 years of life ahead. Consider an active 50 yr old retiring in the early 90s, content with their K-car and 19" colour TV. The technology changes alone (especially for someone with lots of time ;)) for the average household have been incredible: home PCs and internet, digital cameras, flat screens and home theatres, mobile phones, notebooks and wireless etc... What about hobbies: travel, ski, w...
by bender
27 Mar 2009 23:56
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Big Sucker Rally of 2009 Has Started
Replies: 339
Views: 54666

Isn't it is generally accepted that stock market advances are a leading indicator and not a lagging one?
Some comments from Hussman on the market response around recessions. Scroll down to the chart under the heading "What if the recession isn't over in 6 months?"
by bender
12 Mar 2009 07:52
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Barclay's Real Return Bond ETF (Symbol-XRB)
Replies: 122
Views: 43131

brucecohen wrote:I bought some 2026 RRBs from TDW yesterday and was surprised by the spread between what I got and the yield shown on CanadianFixedIncome.ca.

I got 2.353 semi or 2.367 annual. CFI showed 2.39. I don't know if CFI's quote is semi -- probably. So a difference of ~3.7 bps between average institutional and retail. I expected the inst-retail spread to be wider.
Cool. I bought some 2026s on the same day for 2.370 annual :P.

It is reassuring to know that we are getting consistent prices. Cheers.
by bender
07 Mar 2009 09:13
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Yielder? Are you still sitting it out?
Replies: 112
Views: 11259

Springbok wrote:Bender wrote:
The question is not whether to be in or out of the market, but what is the approriate equity allocation.
The market seems be taking care of our equity allocation. Last year we had about 60% in equity, Now we have 40%.
Somehow, I don't feel much better, now we are more in line with the conventional wisdom :(
Hey Springbok. Yeah, its been brutal. As an accumulator I came into the stock market at the wrong time so I'm way underwater :?. It seems that the equity risk premium is back -- lets hope for better years ahead.
by bender
06 Mar 2009 18:09
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Yielder? Are you still sitting it out?
Replies: 112
Views: 11259

Great thread. Thanks to everyone for sharing what you are doing. If anyone is keeping score, I'm on the tequila-and-rebalance plan (accumulator, 50% equities). In the short term I'm very bearish like everyone else, but I have no decision making ability/plan to get in/out of the market so I am staying put. On the upside, the next couple of years could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. what do you consider to be some of the signs indicating that we're starting the long climb out? I believe that if an investor is waiting for economic news to "feel good" about being in equities, it will be far too late and the markets will have significantly rallied by then. The question is not whether to be in or out of the market, but what is...
by bender
05 Mar 2009 19:23
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: David Swensen and Yale's Endowment
Replies: 48
Views: 11283

Yale endowment update 2008 Its very similar to past reports, with some brief commentary about the current situation. Equity orientation makes sense for investors with long time horizons. In the midst of financial crises, some argue for higher allocations to risk-free assets, no doubt wishing after-the-fact for the now unattainable before-the-fact protection. Yet those who argue for greater protection against financial trauma ignore the opportunity costs of maintaining a substantial allocation to fixed-income assets. Diversification, called a free lunch by Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz, allows construction of portfolios with superior risk and return characteristics. In the midst of a capital market dislocation, investors hoping for the pro...
by bender
13 Feb 2009 19:47
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Worth Reading Part II
Replies: 77
Views: 5940

Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter part 2 is available. Always a good read. The buying and holding of a fixed portfolio mix with annual rebalancing is okay, I suppose, for individuals who are intimidated by making changes. Asset allocation is simply much easier than adding alpha to a fund, since there is more to sink your teeth into. Counter-intuitively, asset classes are more inefficiently priced than stocks. There is a large and relatively efficient arbitrage between stocks, and the career risk of picking one stock versus another is quite modest. In contrast, when picking one asset class against another, it is painfully clear when mistakes have been made. This immense career risk makes it likely that there will always be great inefficienc...
by bender
13 Feb 2009 19:27
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Real Return Bonds
Replies: 1545
Views: 242864

Here's what I got just now over the phone (with the dealer average from canadianfixedincome.ca in parentheses - 2021: 2.10 (2.39) 2026: 2.15 (2.43) 2031: 2.00 (2.31) 2036: 2.00 (2.24) Interesting. When I bought the 2021 a couple of months ago, the yield from TDW (2.77%) was the same as the pfin.ca website (I realize the website may lag by a day or so). Also, whenever I request a price for RRB strips, they are about 30 bps lower than regular RRBs :( I wish we had a retail bond market like the US where we could bid on bonds. RRBs are still on my buy list. While yields are OK, I'm still naively waiting/hoping for better. If the equity markets drop further, perhaps we will see another liquidity squeeze and higher real rates on RRBs/TIPS.
by bender
07 Feb 2009 21:28
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: REIT's - fixed income or equities?
Replies: 3
Views: 572

From what I've read, REITs seem to be just an 'OK' proxy for commercial real estate, most of which is privately held. Some investors consider them to be small cap value, and others a type of financial because of their leverage. As scomac said, the pensions/endowments put them in the 'real asset' asset class, but they have access to different (better?) RE investments than individuals.

Their expected return is somewhere between stocks and bonds, and lately they have being doing that with very impressive volatility :shock:. Anyway, its best not to consider them fixed income ;)
by bender
25 Jan 2009 20:12
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Input parameters for retirement plans?
Replies: 3
Views: 1352

This may be of interest, although US data. Click Ennis Knupp capital market modeling assumptions - Jan 2009.

equities 7.7% (geometric/compound return)
US total bond market 4.7%
inflation 2.3%

Also includes correlations and the global market portfolio, similar to what parvus posted in another thread.
by bender
25 Jan 2009 19:52
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Wealth preservation in a volatile world
Replies: 6
Views: 1624

BRIAN5000 wrote:So is this a one time event ?
Will it happen again 5 or 10 years from now when I am retired with little option to return to work ?
You might consider an IPS with a 50/50 allocation (and rebalance), but with a constraint such that the fixed income component is not allowed to go below $x. This way you feel safe and conserve your minimum requirements if the markets bomb to extreme lows; and when equities recover you can resume rebalancing.

Nothing wrong with 40/60 or 30/70 either, so long as you arent tempted to tinker with the AA when sentiment goes bullish. No whipsawing allowed :)
by bender
25 Jan 2009 17:51
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Worth Reading Part II
Replies: 77
Views: 5940

bubbalouie wrote:Hi Bender, just finished Grantham's article. Most of it makes sense to me but some of it seems plain wrong; perhaps I'm missing something.
grantham wrote:The good news is that
with the market at half price, you now have much more
powerful dollars. For consumption purposes, a dollar
is always a dollar. Investment dollars, in contrast, are
weak dollars in badly over-priced markets but powerful
dollars in cheap markets. Today, investment dollars are a
whole lot more powerful than they used to be.
Howdy. I think he is just saying -- in a wordy way -- that stocks are a better buy now than before the crash.
by bender
25 Jan 2009 05:05
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Worth Reading Part II
Replies: 77
Views: 5940

Jeremy Grantham's latest quarterly letter But let us look for a minute at the extent of the loss in perceived wealth that is the main shock to our economic system. If in real terms we assume write-downs of 50% in U.S. equities, 35% in U.S. housing, and 35% to 40% in commercial real estate, we will have had a total loss of about $20 trillion of perceived wealth from a peak total of about $50 trillion. This relates to a GDP of about $13 trillion This time in the U.S., however, we must write down perceived wealth or capital by almost precisely one and a half times GDP, worse than the Depression but happily much less than Japan. Current Recommendations Slowly and carefully invest your cash reserves into global equities, preferring high quality...
by bender
25 Jan 2009 05:02
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Periodic Tables and Charts of Annual Investment Returns
Replies: 111
Views: 36336

NormR wrote:A new little effort ... Periodic Table of Annual Returns for Canadians
Cool! Nice to see the RRBs in there too. 8)
by bender
23 Jan 2009 19:13
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: David Swensen and Yale's Endowment
Replies: 48
Views: 11283

Yale formalizes spending policy. Spending rate to rise
changed the spending rule to raise the target payout from the endowment to 5.25 percent and set a floor of 4.5 percent.

The Corporation also added an upper cap that stops the spending rate from exceeding 6 percent.

current projections for both fiscal years 2011 and 2012 hit the ceiling [6%]
This is interesting given the return assumptions discussed in the "underfunded pensions" thread. However, Yales returns will likely continue to be herculean.
by bender
16 Jan 2009 21:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: David Swensen and Yale's Endowment
Replies: 48
Views: 11283

BNN interviews David Swensen, CIO, Yale University 16th January, 2009
Thanks for that. When the "well-endowed" caption appeared, I sprayed coffee all over my notebook :lol:
by bender
16 Jan 2009 20:56
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Investment strategy for TFSAs
Replies: 205
Views: 24670

So is the low risk low return path actually optimal investment strategy? Might it better to take a long shot
I hadn't considered a long shot, but I was leaning towards moderate risk by holding emerging markets in the TFSA for 5-10 years. I'm not a stock picker, so if someone has a better idea... :grin: