Search found 547 matches

by jay
22 Nov 2023 11:35
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

Did the pref market finally wake up to the opportunities present? Most of my prefs are up 3% - 4% today.
by jay
26 Oct 2023 11:30
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

Just noticed the carnage (again) in BPO RR prefs. I have sorted them according to their YTW: Ticker Price YTW ------------------------- BPO-N 6.69 26.42% BPO-R 7.07 26.33% BPO-P 7.01 24.94% BPO-A 7.88 23.23% BPO-E 8.69 22.88% BPO-C 10.49 21.88% BPO-G 9.51 20.65% BPO-I 9.64 19.11% BPO-T 10.46 17.74% The above assumes GOC-5 remains at 4.28%. If it starts falling gradually from here to reach 0% in 5 years and stays there forever hence (hypothetical scenario to estimate YTW): Ticker Price Reset Date GOC-5 YTW ------------------------------------------------------ BPO-A 7.88 12/31/24 3.21% 19.97% BPO-N 6.69 06/30/26 1.93% 18.36% BPO-R 7.07 09/30/26 1.71% 18.07% BPO-T 10.46 01/1/24 4.07% 17.23% BPO-C 10.49 06/30/26 1.93% 16.74% BPO-P 7.01 03/31/2...
by jay
21 Sep 2023 12:56
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

Vinman wrote: 21 Sep 2023 09:42 BMO.PR.E is trading around $21.65. Recall date is Nov 25/2023. BMO has redeemed the last four prefs. If not redeemed it will reset at 7%! Announcement should be next week if no redemption. Why would anyone be selling when good chance it will be redeemed at $25? I picked up 400 at 21.70 and thinking of buying more in TFSA.
if not redeemed it will reset at ~8% all things equal (price=21.65, GOC-5 = 4.2%)

Correction: sorry you are right, the reset rate will be ~7% and yield would be ~8% (all things equal)
by jay
21 Sep 2023 12:32
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

freedom2022 wrote: 21 Sep 2023 08:28 Any take on RY.PR.S? Now, it yields almost 6%.
It will be reset early next year.
I like it. 2 more payments at 5.95% and assuming GOC-5 stays at ~4% it will reset at 6.38% of $25 i.e. new div would be $1.6/year as of Feb 2024 and assuming price remains unchanged ($20.17), that equals to 8% yield for the next 5 years. Come 2029 reset time, however, if GOC-5 falls back to 0.5%, then we are talking a major div cut: $0.72/yr i.e. a yield of 3.57% based on current price. A GOC-5 above 1.5% would keep it a HOLD from that point imo.

Tough to know. But looks like a great deal for the next 5 yrs. I am still learning and trying to understand the risk.

Disclosure: like it and I have a buy order.
by jay
15 Sep 2023 09:38
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2023)
Replies: 193
Views: 30508

Re: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2023)

I have a buy order for SLF.PR.G, a fixed reset with original coupon of 4.35% and a spread of 1.41% with a Pfd-2(high) DBRS rating. Current rate is 1.83% based on its last reset in June 2020. See James's post on this: . Here is my rationale: Current yearly div is 0.01825*25 = $0.45625. At the current price of $12.22/share the yield is 3.73%. There are 7 div payments left until the next reset in 2025. 3.73% might seem low but from a tax perspective it's equivalent to what HISA's pay so I am good with that. If by next reset GOC-5 is where it is today (4%) then the new rate would be (0.04+0.0141)=5.41%, i.e. the new yearly div would be $1.3525, almost 3 times higher the current div. Yield would be ~11% assuming price remains at $12.22/share. Th...
by jay
15 Sep 2023 08:42
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

jiHymas wrote: 14 Sep 2023 09:50
jay wrote: 12 Sep 2023 17:09 First, according to this, ZPR's YTW is now 9.85% based on Aug GOC-5 rate of 3.9%.
Can you tell me where you found this link? There does not appear to be a link to the document via ZPR's main page. How would an average investory find this link?
I really can't remember how I found it. Most likely on this board. I saved it and I check it once/month.
by jay
12 Sep 2023 17:09
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

FWIW I updated my estimate YTW on ZPR as follows: First, according to this , ZPR's YTW is now 9.85% based on Aug GOC-5 rate of 3.9%. YTW of 9.85% again seemed a bit high. I found it to be ~9.02% based on the following calculation which is based on a fictional product with face value of 25$ and current price of $17.75 (to match ZPR's current yield). Face Value: $25.00 Price $17.75 Avg Coupon (or last reset rate): 4.59% Reset Date: 21-Oct-26 (3.11 yrs from now on average as per the above link) Avg Reset Spread: 2.7036% GOC-5 Rate: 3.9% Dividend (per year): $1.148 Payments left: 13 Current Yield: 6.46% ******** Post reset rate: 6.60% New Dividend: $1.65 Yield post reset: 9.30% Holding Period (years): 30 yrs YTW: 9.02% Doing some risk analysis:...
by jay
11 Sep 2023 10:33
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]
Replies: 70
Views: 6639

Re: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]

Peculiar_Investor wrote: 11 Sep 2023 09:18
jay wrote: 10 Sep 2023 15:21 I want to say "Take care", "Wish you the best" but not sure what applies now.
From RIP Shakespeare [2023]
Norbert Schlenker wrote: 23 Jul 2023 11:26 He gave us early warning but I don't see a mention here so I'm letting you all know that Shakespeare has passed on.
Keith Betty, of Calgary, Canada passed away on Sunday July 4, 2023, at the age of 74.
thanks :(
by jay
10 Sep 2023 15:21
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]
Replies: 70
Views: 6639

Re: A Final Financial Thread [from Shakespeare]

this was hard to read. You were a big influence to me. I remember discovering this forum and then I read all your posts. Your primer is what got me in to DIY investing. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you!

I want to say "Take care", "Wish you the best" but not sure what applies now. FWIW, this is a very sad moment for me and I hope you have a comfortable passage.
by jay
14 Dec 2022 12:25
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

jiHymas wrote: 13 Dec 2022 16:03 According to the notes in their publication:
BMO wrote: 6 Yield to Call (YTC) assumes each issue is called at its next reset date.
7 Yield to Maturity (YTM) assumes each issue is called at its last possible reset date.
8 Yield to Worst (YTW) Assumes the lower of YTC and YTM for each line. This measure will tend to be overly conservative.
I don't understand note 7.
Thanks James. I guess they are saying that each issue eventually gets called which means there is some capital gain factored into the YTM which is unrealistic imo.

Their YTM and consequently YTW just feels high, no?
by jay
13 Dec 2022 11:36
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Preferreds
Replies: 2578
Views: 318341

Re: Preferreds

Hi everyone,
according to this, ZPR's YTW is now 9.50% based on (likely) end of Nov GOC-5 rate of 3.164%.

The average coupon is 4.32% and the average spread is 2.69%. Something feels off about the YTW of 9.5% (it is too good). By my (rough) calculations which I include below, it should be in the +7.7% range.

Par: $25.00
Price: $18.50
Coupon: 4.32%
Reset Date: Jun-25 (2.5 yrs from now on average)
Spread: 2.69%
GOC-5 Rate: 3.14%

We get:
Dividend (per year): $1.080
Payments left: 10
Current Yield: 5.84%
Reset Rate: 5.83%
New Dividend: $1.46
Yield post Reset: 7.88%
Holding Period (years): 30
YTW: 7.72%

What am I missing?
by jay
06 Jul 2022 12:47
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2022)
Replies: 282
Views: 68367

Re: What and why did you Buy? What might you buy? (2022)

Thinking of buying some fixed reset preferrds . According to this, the YTW is now almost 7%. Anyone else thinks fixed resets are a good bargain today?
by jay
04 Mar 2022 09:25
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Enbridge (Symbol-ENB)..are we getting close to a buy???
Replies: 725
Views: 101196

Re: Enbridge (Symbol-ENB)..are we getting close to a buy???

newin96 wrote: 03 Mar 2022 22:59 post RRSP meltdown
what meltdown?
by jay
01 Mar 2022 17:59
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)
Replies: 25
Views: 9932

Re: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)

ghariton wrote: 01 Mar 2022 17:16
afulldeck wrote: 01 Mar 2022 15:23 [ However, for this to work QQQ has to slop upwards generally, any sideways motion is a killer. If tech does a 10 year sideways run like 2000-2015 you could get burnt....
Oh. I don't know.

Inception for TQQQ was 2010, so first full year was 2011. Returns were

2011: -7.77%
2012: 51.95%
2013: 139.98%
2014: 56.82%
2015: 17.41%

Doesn't look too bad to me.

George
2000-2003 would have killed TQQQ (99% loss). I don't think it would have ever recovered, that is if one even held on to it.
by jay
01 Mar 2022 17:52
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)
Replies: 25
Views: 9932

Re: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)

You could get burnt if leveraged, but not because of the leveraged ETF products. I remember doing a synthetic backtest using ^GSPC data going back to the 50's with a focus on bear markets. The results were good in theory but I did not take interest rates and fees into account. I will try to dig it up. There is no data for 3X ETFs but RYTNX (2X SPY) seems to go back to 2000. Here is a backtest that has 50% in it and it tracks the underlying SPY 1X fairly well. Here is another test that has 60% in it and it tracks SPY 1.2X also fairly well. Same with 1.5X. . And here is another test (my favourite) that uses SSO and goes back to 2006 (that is 15 years ...). It tracks SPY 1X very well and achieves a small alpha. Overall, it seems to track OK. I...
by jay
01 Mar 2022 12:53
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Hedging
Replies: 0
Views: 7972

Hedging

This morning I sold short TSE:XIU (TSX 60 ETF) at $32.13 to hedge my Canadian portfolio. I sold short the equivalent of 50% of my holdings, which leaves me 50% net long. Disclosure: In Mar 2020 I sold my 20 or so Canadian dividend stocks and decided to switch to XIC, in part to simplify and in part to capture a capital loss. A few months later I realized indexing wasn't for me so I bought the same holdings later that year. Market has done quite well since and have recently been thinking of hedging. Given the uncertainties today (Ukraine, inflation, bubbles everywhere etc...), I can't think of a better time. I am using short term technical indicators and will cover once the 5-day moving average goes above the 10-day. I will also start coveri...
by jay
01 Mar 2022 12:30
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)
Replies: 25
Views: 9932

Re: 3x Leverage US ETF (TQQQ)

risk of ruin is high... 2000-2002 scenario would make TQQQ lose 99% of its value and chances are it would've never recovered. Higher interest rates are also a problem. TQQQ borrows to buy additional stock.

Having said that, I believe there is some value (based on own personal experience) in using leveraged ETFs after de-leveraging them. Here are some examples:

- 33% in TQQQ is equivalent to 1X QQQ. See this
- 40% in TQQQ is equivalent to 1.2X QQQ. See this
- 50% in TQQQ should be equivalent to 1.5X QQQ. See this

This frees up quite a big chunk to put into bonds, and with frequent rebalancing (e.g. quarterly), I have seen some outperformance over the underlying.
by jay
11 Jun 2020 12:39
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2020)
Replies: 304
Views: 30115

Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2020)

Sold some of my ZPR (BMO Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF) at 8.20 this morning. I doubled down on ZPR in March close to the lows, and its allocation recently got above 20% which I am no longer comfortable with.

At these levels, fixed preferred are still attractively priced with a YTW > 5%. But they do crazy things sometimes. And it looks like a good day to raise cash. I sold just enough to bring my ZPR allocation to a 15% allocation.
by jay
05 May 2020 14:05
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Sell in May and go away?
Replies: 36
Views: 2772

Re: Sell in May and go away?

deaddog wrote: 29 Apr 2020 12:06 I've already done that.

Might be good advice this year. We can check back in October and see. :)
DD are you still 100% in cash? I have to believe many names are back above their 200Ma (or is it a 30-40 week moving average that you follow?)
by jay
16 Apr 2020 15:53
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Friend wants to go to cash
Replies: 14
Views: 1030

Re: Friend wants to go to cash

Thanks for everyone. I've pointed my friend to this post as suggested.
by jay
15 Apr 2020 16:00
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Friend wants to go to cash
Replies: 14
Views: 1030

Re: Friend wants to go to cash

Thanks all.

But keep in mind he is in a somewhat unique situation in that he only started mid last year. At breakeven point, he feels he is starting fresh.

So similar to how the ultimate test to holding a stock is: would you buy it today if you didn't own it? imagine you are 100% cash and wanting to get in into the market. How would you get in given the current situation?
by jay
15 Apr 2020 15:17
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Friend wants to go to cash
Replies: 14
Views: 1030

Friend wants to go to cash

A friend of mine with no prior DIY investing experience started investing in his TFSA mid 2019. He wanted a simple and efficient solution so I convinced him a cheap balanced fund would do the trick. I suggested he lump it all into VBAL (60/40) or VGRO (80/2). He chose VBAL. He just called me and told me that pretty much at the lows this year he decided to get more aggressive and switched to VGRO. Obviously, that worked well for him as he is now at breakeven point already. That is a good place to be given everything. But now he is feeling scared and thinking of going to cash. He asked me what to do. I am obviously not a financial advisor. I told him that from experience, being 100% cash is just not right (to an investor) due to bad timing. I...
by jay
08 Apr 2020 14:06
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)
Replies: 1015
Views: 80772

Re: What did you Buy? What might you buy? (2020)

Okay, this one is a reach, a gamble, a speculation. :shock: Bought 950 shares in HSE.PR.C which is a rate reset for $9.69/share. It reset end of last year and is paying $1.17/share dividend for the next 4 and 3/4 years. It's cumulative so as long as the company doesn't go bankrupt, I will get the dividend eventually. The bigger question is will the company survive? Been buying HSE.PR.C in my TFSA and I actually have the exact same ACB/share of $9.69 :). I started buying in the $12s and added in the $7's and scooped some at the 6's. But if I were to buy an HSE pref today I would choose HSE.PR.G; I think it has a slightly better YTW than all its siblings. It resets in June so there might even be some selling pressure soon. So I will wait.
by jay
06 Apr 2020 17:51
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Do Nothing (out of the ordinary) / Stay the Course
Replies: 288
Views: 16230

Re: Do Nothing (out of the ordinary) / Stay the Course

Flaccidsteele wrote: 06 Apr 2020 16:27 I always wondered why scared people say “it feels different this time” during bear markets but never say it during bull markets

Why aren’t bull markets “different”?

Either way, over the decades I’ve heard sooo many people tell me how it’s different this time and they’ve all been horribly wrong. Now I’ve learned that it’s just something irrational people say
cuz you are smarter than everyone else. Congrats
by jay
26 Mar 2020 11:04
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2020)
Replies: 304
Views: 30115

Re: What did you sell? What might you sell? (2020)

Sold all of what I bought a few days ago in my TFSA (AD, MTY, SRU.UN, EIF, IPL) for almost +40% on average.