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by ghariton
22 May 2017 14:10
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

I feel badly intruding on such an interesting conversation, but after all, this is the "clippings" thread. Jamie Dymon thinks that the world economy is set to do very well: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he remains optimistic about the global economy and the prospects ...
by ghariton
21 May 2017 21:07
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

it's definitely a personal preference for lowering my portfolio's exposure to the inflation risk of nominal bonds. Me too. I come from a part of the world where inflation was significant, and got completely out of control from time to time. Plus my mortgage came up for renewal in 1982. The same app...
by ghariton
21 May 2017 18:33
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Brexit: Food Supply
Replies: 3
Views: 161

Re: Brexit: Food Supply

Thank you for the link. I really should pay the Guardian, given the number of free stories on their site that I read.

The U.K.'s labour issues remind me of the debates in Canada concerning our temporary foreign worker program.

George
by ghariton
21 May 2017 18:19
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

longinvest wrote:
21 May 2017 17:45
I think that the risks of a narrow market can be more effectively to diluted by investing into other assets (such as bonds and international stocks), instead of tilting one's investments into the market's smaller corners.
Indeed.

But then you run into home country bias.

George
by ghariton
21 May 2017 11:36
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

Ironically, all the super-rich made their fortunes through stock concentration! You concentrate to make money (if you can stand the risk) and diversify to keep it. ... all the while keeping in mind that most people suffer from over-optimism bias. To Keith Cowan's point, most of the super-rich did n...
by ghariton
21 May 2017 10:08
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

Four percent seems like pretty lousy odds. On the other hand, I wonder if this news might make people more tempted to try to pick winners, as opposed to less. In other words, the study shows that the odds are poorer than I thought, but, by extension, the potential reward is greater. At the extreme,...
by ghariton
20 May 2017 13:50
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

Report on a new study concludes that, while stocks over all beat bonds and Treasury bills by a wide margin over the long run, that is not true of individual stocks. What you are seeing is a few stocks doing phenomenally well, with the average stock quite mediocre. What’s more, 58 percent of individ...
by ghariton
19 May 2017 21:09
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

Jo Anne wrote:
19 May 2017 20:23
I watch the markets move, and I sit there paralyzed by indecision. And I do nothing. And everything turns out just fine.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

George
by ghariton
17 May 2017 21:39
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Discretionary or Managed Accounts
Replies: 2
Views: 187

Re: Discretionary or Managed Accounts

par4 wrote:
17 May 2017 19:26
Can a Financial Advisor say he will only handle your account if it is Discretionary or Managed? In other words, the client must sign a form indicating you accept this. :(
I strongly recommend finding another financial adviser.

George
by ghariton
17 May 2017 00:10
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)
Replies: 683
Views: 48436

Re: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)

It strikes me that one can't invest in a basket of stocks - in advance - and get the return of a geometric index. As a result it's interpretation, and usefulness, seems odd. That is, it tracks the performance of the median stock. I think you're right. The idea is still to give lower weight to more ...
by ghariton
16 May 2017 21:58
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)
Replies: 683
Views: 48436

Re: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)

Ah, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're talking about the difference between geometric and arithmetic returns. In this case it seems to be applied index construction. That is, geometrically-weighted indexes. Ah, my mistake. In constructing an index, using geometric weights is the equivalent...
by ghariton
16 May 2017 21:18
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns
Replies: 43
Views: 787

Re: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns

George I seem to detect that you are changing your strategy. Is this because you have been too cautious? I have had roughly the same strategy for a dozen years. I have an absolute amount of FI as a target (indexed for inflation), a target I reached in late 2008 when RRBs went on sale. Since then, I...
by ghariton
16 May 2017 19:03
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)
Replies: 683
Views: 48436

Re: Power of Dividend Growth 2011 (and beyond)

Frankly, I'm still trying to get my head around the interpretation of a geometric index and how it differs from an arithmetic one. Assistance on the topic would be appreciated. An important and much-overlooked issue. A geometric average depends entirely on the first and last point in a time series....
by ghariton
16 May 2017 18:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns
Replies: 43
Views: 787

Re: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns

My portfolio is about 45% ex-Canada and unhedged. My equities are 97% ex-Canada and unhedged. My fixed income (about a third of my portfolio) is all in CAD. As time goes on, I expect the proportion of fixed income to decrease. So both the proportion and the absolute value in other than CAD will inc...
by ghariton
14 May 2017 16:51
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: FI ratio
Replies: 9
Views: 249

Re: FI ratio

the perspective of how much FI I want in absolute dollars as a shock absorber .... IOW, I re-balance to a FI amount (not percentage). That's what I do. Note two consequences, though. First, as my portfolio size has grown in the last decade, and my FI component has stayed the same, the amount alloca...
by ghariton
14 May 2017 16:34
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns
Replies: 43
Views: 787

Re: Impacts of currency fluctuations and currency hedging on returns

It isn't that hard to be fully market cap weighted with equities. I recall that George Hariton does that. Pretty well. I still have a legacy holding of QQQ that I am slowly whittling down: It's what I sell when I need some money. I've stated elsewhere that I believe that holding VTI, VEA and VWO, a...
by ghariton
12 May 2017 19:10
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Industry knowledge after you retire
Replies: 12
Views: 449

Re: Industry knowledge after you retire

I can say I have overall made better investing decisions post-retirement than I did pre-retirement. Certainly true for me, A couple of extra points. When I was working in a fairly specialized area, I thought I knew a lot about it. Maybe I did, maybe I was fooling myself. But I became overconfident,...
by ghariton
10 May 2017 22:05
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: CPP Deferral debate - Fred Vettese article discussion
Replies: 184
Views: 3156

Re: CPP Deferral debate - Fred Vettese article discussion

Thank you for the calculations. I have no quarrel with your numbers. But I would suggest that their interpretation depends upon the larger context. Two observations: First, current life expectancy in Canada is 79 for men and 83 for women, for an average of 81. From your table, if I can earn a real r...
by ghariton
10 May 2017 17:34
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Total Return or Distribution Income in Retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 1258

Re: Total Return or Distribution Income in Retirement

The joy of giving (and receiving) means most between living individuals, rather than receiving a big cheque after the benefactor is dead. Agree. The other point is that, for most people, getting some extra money is most helpful when they are just starting out and loaded with debt or making bad choi...
by ghariton
10 May 2017 13:31
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

Rob Arnott argues against market-cap-weight indexing and for fundamental indexing. My take-away is that market-cap-weighting is unduly influenced by performance chasers ("lemmings"), who cause deviations from true value. In turn, those deviations are corrected by long term mean reversion, and so ma...
by ghariton
10 May 2017 12:14
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: CPP Deferral debate - Fred Vettese article discussion
Replies: 184
Views: 3156

Re: CPP Deferral debate - Fred Vettese article discussion

Fred Vettese has written an excellent follow up article. But it is fascinating to read the comments that follow...virtually no one is buying what he says. You can lead a horse to water.... http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/retirement/the-cpp-deferral-debate-spend-your-risky-dollars...
by ghariton
09 May 2017 12:56
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Ten commandments from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 12
Views: 566

Re: Ten commandments from Jonathan Clements

I might add this: Learn and understand the powerful concept of "Human Capital", and then apply this knowledge to your choice of career. Agree. This has been the biggest factor in any success I have enjoyed. If you have a well paying career, saving/investing is a lot easier. Yes. My mother lived thr...
by ghariton
08 May 2017 23:24
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2017
Replies: 110
Views: 5932

Re: Clippings 2017

At the end of 2016, over half of US households have abandoned landline phones. I would be interested in seeing similarly definitive Canadian statistics. From the CRTC's 2016 Monitoring Report . The 2017 Report, with data for 2016, should be out in a couple of months. From Table 5.2.6, between 2011 ...
by ghariton
08 May 2017 16:26
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Risking Less and Prospering using Real Return Bonds? [RRBs]
Replies: 83
Views: 3463

Re: Risking Less and Prospering using Real Return Bonds? [RRBs]

The Globe site is the only one I am aware of still reporting RRB values. FWIW, TD Waterhouse is showing a price of $189.38 for the 2021 RRBs. That's the bid price. For the ask price, you have to build in the spread, typically around one and a half per cent. Bank of Canada shows a positive yield of ...
by ghariton
08 May 2017 15:52
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Ten commandments from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 12
Views: 566

Re: Ten commandments from Jonathan Clements

I would add this one: 11. Realize that there is a lot more randomness out there than most people think. That is particularly true of financial markets. So don't start seeing patterns where there are none. Don't be impressed by strategies that have worked, oh so well, in the past. Don't ascribe to sk...