Search found 8726 matches

by ghariton
27 Mar 2024 21:29
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: BCE (Symbol-BCE)
Replies: 1860
Views: 286357

Re: BCE (Symbol-BCE)

Globe & Mail BCE Inc. paid out millions of dollars in performance bonuses to its top executives after falling short of its 2023 financial targets, slowing its dividend growth and announcing thousands of job cuts. The company paid chief executive officer Mirko Bibic an annual bonus of $2.96-million as part of a $13.43-million compensation package last year, the company disclosed in its proxy circular to shareholders. His bonus was down slightly from $3.09-million in 2022. Wade Oosterman, president of Bell Media until his retirement in January, received a bonus of $1.08-million as part of $4.87-million in total compensation. Three other executives in their roles for all of 2023 received bonuses of between $853,470 and $923,400 as part of...
by ghariton
27 Mar 2024 17:15
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Productivity Indicator
Replies: 16
Views: 888

Re: Productivity Indicator

Koogie wrote: 27 Mar 2024 10:00 While it would be nice and easy to point the finger at one factor (productivity !!) it is considerably more complicated than that.
Yes.

Productivity is not a "thing" in itself. Rather, it is the result of many factors, including the ones you discuss, and many others. I would emphasize willingness to take on risk of the expected apyoff is reasonable. Canadians as a group seems extremely risk averse. Hence the widespread phenomenon of the family business that does not respond to growth opportunities because, well, we are doing okay, so why risk change?

George
by ghariton
27 Mar 2024 17:10
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Productivity Indicator
Replies: 16
Views: 888

Re: Productivity Indicator

afulldeck wrote: 27 Mar 2024 09:10 Size matters when your talking about exporting, due to the increased costs of regulations, tariff etc. Canadian companies are not large enough to tackle the burden of exporting. I gave up on exporting out of this country 20 years ago.
No doubt that the size of the domestic market matters. But there are lots of small companies that have produced world-leading exporters. Look at Sweden with Ericsson, Volvo, Ikea and others. Switzerland with watches, chocolate and banks. Israel with technology. Singapore with integrated circuits. And so on.

George
by ghariton
26 Mar 2024 23:05
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Productivity Indicator
Replies: 16
Views: 888

Re: Productivity Indicator

Slow or negative productivity growth in Canada is not a new topic. I remember chairing a session at the annual meeting of the Canadian Economic Association in 1996 (I think) where this was the topic. While lack of domestic competition is often flagged as a problem, the bigger problem is that Canadian companies are generally not export-oriented. You face real competition when you are facing foreign competitors on their turf or in third countries. That's why Japan and South Korea were able to make so much progress even though their domestic markets were protected. They enjoyed government favour only to the extent that they successfully exported, and to do that, they had to become really good. It's also why the most productive Canadian compani...
by ghariton
25 Mar 2024 21:07
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 40
Views: 1237

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

Interesting.

I have a question. When you look at moving averages and such, do you adjst for inflation? In other words, are those prices and earnings in real or nominal terms? (For ratios like P/E. obviously it doesn't matter.)

Georhe
by ghariton
24 Mar 2024 15:40
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3434

Re: Housing Market 2024

Its high price doesn't serve me in any way since I have no plans to sell it or do anything with is since it's where I live Yes. It is a shelter and throws off shelter-type services. But it's a bit of an investment as well. When you do retire, in thirty years or so, you can sell it then and help fund a getaway in a nice place. Even in the suorter run, your house can serve as collateral if you so wish. So for you it's mostly shelter, but also a bit of an investment. Then there are people who own multiple houses. For them, in general, the additional houses are pretty well all investment. But they can let family mmembers stay there depending on circumstances. So there's a bit of shelter as well. The dual nature of housing as simultaneously she...
by ghariton
24 Mar 2024 00:03
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 129
Views: 10331

Re: Clippings 2024

A paper by John Cochrane , who wrote one of the classic books on asset pricing (not recommended for beginners). This paper, Portfolios for Long Term Investors, is fairly readable, although rather long. Basically Cochrane makes two points. First, the usual financial models used in the industry are essentially one-period models. By definition they cannot model results that depend on the passage of time, like mean reversion. Second, our models often make spending a function of wealth only, e.g. the 4% rule or more complicated variants. But spending depends on other factors as well, including factors that affect the value of our assets (and hence e.g. the result of the 4% rule). Cochrane sketches out a dynamic framework that overcomes these pro...
by ghariton
23 Mar 2024 23:38
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 129
Views: 10331

Re: Clippings 2024

From Noah Smith's blog (One of the more influential blogs among American... um... intellectuals?) What’s going on with Canada’s economy? It’s not clear. A drop in exports was part of the most recent quarterly weakness, driven by oil and cars. That illustrates Canada’s dangerous dependence on petroleum — both its reliance on oil exports, and its status as a hub for internal combustion car manufacturing in an era when everyone is switching to electric. Oil also helps explain the stagnation of Canadian GDP since 2014; that’s when oil prices fell from their very high early 2010s plateau. “Petrostate” is not an economic strategy that Canada should pursue. But Canadian consumption and investment are also stagnant or falling right now. This could ...
by ghariton
23 Mar 2024 19:20
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3434

Re: Housing Market 2024

Norbert Schlenker wrote: 23 Mar 2024 18:24
randomwalker wrote: 23 Mar 2024 16:57 I would propose a tax regime that would make investment ownership of dwellings clearly built as single family family homes and condominiums so unpalatable as rental properties that owner/ landlords would put them up for sale so as to be purchase by owner occupiers.
Why?
Presumably to shrink the stock of rental properties.

A side effect might be an increase in the supply of homes for sale, but simultaneously there would be a decrease in overall new builds, both for sale and for rent. The net effect on the for-sale market would depend on how these two countervailing forces work out. But the effect on the for rent supply is clear.

George
by ghariton
23 Mar 2024 19:03
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 40
Views: 1237

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

I believe that the market has no memory. What matters is not where it is now relative to where it was in the past. What matters is where it is now relative to where it will be in the future. So to invest in an informed manner, one has to form a view (or views) as to what the future might look like. Monte Carlo simulations are a useful tool here, but ultimately the investor must input what assumptions he or she thinks will most likely hold. Not easy. But then, if it were easy, everyone would be rich. So, in your case, where do you think VBAL will be in ten years? How will the Canadian and the international ecoonomy grow? What portion of that will be captured by corporations as earnings? What will be the impact of AI, other developing technol...
by ghariton
22 Mar 2024 23:47
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: TD Direct Investing (was Waterhouse) Service
Replies: 3927
Views: 433381

Re: TD Direct Investing (was Waterhouse) Service

Well, I hope TDDI doesn't send me any amendments. I filed today (for me and my spouse).

George
by ghariton
22 Mar 2024 13:03
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: 9 Lessons I’ve Learned About Death and Money
Replies: 14
Views: 701

Re: 9 Lessons I’ve Learned About Death and Money

Bylo Selhi wrote: 22 Mar 2024 07:29 The "correct" dosage of opiates is a fine line between pain relief and cessation of breathing. Some doctors are more willing to "err" on the side of the terminal patient.
Yes, that's what I was told as well.

George
by ghariton
21 Mar 2024 22:26
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: 9 Lessons I’ve Learned About Death and Money
Replies: 14
Views: 701

Re: 9 Lessons I’ve Learned About Death and Money

AltaRed wrote: 21 Mar 2024 21:04 I am not suggesting one wait too long to sign the paperwork for MAID. I would just like to see whether/how there may be amendments to current legislation. Anecdotally, we 'know' a few people who actually were family to people that went through actual MAID events.
One of my brothers-in-law took the MAID route a year ago. I was distressed at the time, but I now believe he made the right decision.

Anecdotally, some doctors have been "helping" terminally ill patients for some years now. But none of the ones I know would speak openly about it.

George
by ghariton
21 Mar 2024 18:14
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2093

Re: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement

Dr. Spock, planning for "retirement", might perfectly rationally build a calibrated Monte Carlo model, and derive the appropriate buffer. Then he could re-run it each year, and if market outperformance and/or underspending mean the buffer is overfunded, sweep the excess into lifestyle spending, gifts, etc. Sorry, I missed your post. I don't think one needs to be Dr. Spock to implement my approach. Set the buffer once, when you draw up your IPS. Revisit the buffer when you review the IPS (in my case, every twelve years or so and once when there was a significant change in our circumstances). At those times, worry about changing your risk tolerance and your perception of market risk, etc. Then once a year, look to see whether you a...
by ghariton
21 Mar 2024 13:07
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 129
Views: 10331

Re: Clippings 2024

The distinction between active and passive investment can be a tricky one. At the limit, all investing is active -- the investor takes the action to put some money into a fund or stock. I think that the better interpretation is how much stock picking and market timing the investor does, or has a portfolio manager do for him. The proliferation of sectoral and specialist ETFs suggests that, while the amount of money in ETFs is growing, an element of active investment (picking sectors, etc.) is still very much alive and may be growing. Note that this kind of active investment is quite consistent with buy-and-hold. For example, suppose I believe in the future prospects of semiconductors. So I invest in SOXX, an ETF that reflects an index of sem...
by ghariton
20 Mar 2024 00:26
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155687

Re: Inflation

WSJ (hence U.S. data but I suspect Canada is similar)
Inflation hurt low-income households more. The cost of food, energy and rent rose far more than other items after the start of the pandemic, and made up a bigger share of consumption for the poor. Inflation experienced by the poorest fifth of society was 1.6 percentage points higher than for the richest fifth from March 2020 to June 2023, according to the latest data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
George
by ghariton
19 Mar 2024 23:48
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 129
Views: 10331

Re: Clippings 2024

Are Millenials and Zoomers worse off financially than previous generations? SSRI paper The abstract: We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 percent). Slower progress for Generation X and Millenn...
by ghariton
19 Mar 2024 20:19
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Bank of Canada [policy rates]
Replies: 29
Views: 4141

Re: Bank of Canada [policy rates]

Yes, core inflation rates are down some 0.2%, but still above 3%.

Hard to predict what the BofC will do.

George
by ghariton
19 Mar 2024 20:14
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155687

Re: Inflation

The wild card (for us) is the April 16 budget. If the deficit is shown to grow, or not decline as quickly as previously predicted, there will be pressure for the BofC to keep monetary policy tighter rather than looser. Fiscal and monetary policy are supposed to complement each other, not fight. But fiscal policy obviously responds to pressures other than fighting inflation.

George
by ghariton
19 Mar 2024 20:03
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Your favorite asset class
Replies: 55
Views: 3280

Re: Your favorite asset class

Thank you for the article from Vanguard saying that active investing is not all that bad. But following the link and reading the entire piece is a bit disappointing. The author gives two important criteria if active investment is to work. First, expenses must be low. True, but not very helpful. Push that criterion to its logical conclusion and you're right back in passive investing. Second, the investor must be tolerant toward active investment risk, i.e. periods of underperformance. Also true. Also not very helpful. If I as an investor am tolerant to risk, I can leverage an index fund to whatever level of risk I can tolerate (and my broker will let me get away with). Why is it better to go the active route? Finally, the author gives an exa...
by ghariton
19 Mar 2024 09:07
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2093

Re: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement

Houska wrote: 19 Mar 2024 08:06 I find this unsurprising.
I understand the desire for a buffer. What I don't understand is why that buffer would grow over time (except to keep up with inflation). At age 65 I face all the risks that I will face at age 70, plus a bit more (e.g. being disabled from 65 to 70). Indeed, if anything, as I age, the size of the needed buffer should decrease, not increase. Fewer bad things can happen to me.

George
by ghariton
18 Mar 2024 22:15
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Canadian Universities Finances
Replies: 11
Views: 617

Re: Canadian Universities Finances

It seems to me that the underlying problem is that tuition fees for domestic students are much too low. While universities will continue to receive research grants, and a few of them have significant endowments, the vast bulk of the revenues should come from those who benefit, i.e. the students. I do understand that students may not have access to sufficient funds at the start of their adult lives. In consequence, student loans should be expended and conditions should be tailored to what a student can reasonably be expected to repay. The only argument I see for government subsidies (other than R & D) are positive externalities flowing to society from having students that have graduated from university (note that I am not saying "be...
by ghariton
18 Mar 2024 20:06
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2093

Re: Blackrock whitepaper on spending in retirement

On yet another hand, some investors' portfolios had yearly returns greater than the rate of spending. For example, using the very rough guide of spending 4% per year after adjusting for inflation would have required annual returns of 6%. Anyone who averaged above that would have grown their portfolio.

Given equity market returns over the past decade or two, investors heavily into equities would have beaten 6%. This suggests that most (two thirds?) had a relatively heavy weighting to fixed income or even cash.

George
by ghariton
17 Mar 2024 19:23
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Single premium immediate annuity (SPIA)
Replies: 95
Views: 3900

Re: Single premium immediate annuity (SPIA)

OptsyEagle wrote: 17 Mar 2024 16:32 I'm surprised we don't see more life insurance agents working the high schools. :lol:
In my experience they work the parents. I remember one who used to scan the birth announcements, and try to sell a policy while the infant was still insurable.

George
by ghariton
17 Mar 2024 19:14
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Your favorite asset class
Replies: 55
Views: 3280

Re: Your favorite asset class

My favourite asset class? Winning lottery tickets, purchased before the draw. Now if I could only find the right broker to identify them for me...

George