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by ghariton
22 Jan 2018 00:54
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Some fairly alarming commentary on the forthcoming round of negotiations: Canada will be hosting an annoyed and angry United States as the sixth round of talks in the North American Free Trade Agreement renegotiation unfold over the coming week. The Trump administration is making known its displeas...
by ghariton
21 Jan 2018 15:18
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

Getting ready for the next round of NAFTA negotiations next week in Montreal. What if the talks fail? Does Canada have an alternative -- a Plan B? Chrystia Freeland says yes: So we are absolutely prepared for every eventuality. But others are not so sure: Last week, Canada’s International Trade Min...
by ghariton
20 Jan 2018 18:57
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Outstanding Financial Pornography
Replies: 636
Views: 110447

Re: Outstanding Financial Pornography

ig17 wrote:
20 Jan 2018 18:53
He predicted that S&P 500 would peak in 2029 between 6,000 and 15,000. That's the difference between 7.0% and 16.5% annualized. What's up with that? I hate the lack of precision.
It will peak at 10,526 at 10:31 am on January 24, 2029.

There, fixed it for you.

George
by ghariton
20 Jan 2018 18:04
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Outstanding Financial Pornography
Replies: 636
Views: 110447

Re: Outstanding Financial Pornography

peter wrote:
20 Jan 2018 14:49
That is great news. I'll convert all my stocks in 2029 into RBBs and retire on a Caribbean island.
Better make it 2028. You wouldn't want to take too many risks with your market timing. :wink:

George
by ghariton
18 Jan 2018 00:12
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

ig17 wrote:
17 Jan 2018 19:48
Just read this article again.
Thank you for the link.

Matches what some people who I know are saying.

George
by ghariton
16 Jan 2018 23:53
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: TDDI - New WebBroker interface
Replies: 171
Views: 10610

Re: TDDI - New WebBroker interface

I login using my wife's user ID when I need to make transfers between her accounts. So do I. I once let that slip out, and the TD sales rep was appalled, then pretended not to have heard. Since I had been on hold for nearly an hour anyway, I thought I would ask when I would be able to transfer mone...
by ghariton
16 Jan 2018 22:10
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: TDDI - New WebBroker interface
Replies: 171
Views: 10610

Re: TDDI - New WebBroker interface

55 minute wait to talk to a live human who can journal shares from my CAD account to my USD account. I have POA over my wife's accounts. But I can't transfer money between her accounts on-line. Have to call in and have it done by a representative. But they're working on it, and soon -- any year now ...
by ghariton
15 Jan 2018 22:34
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

That is the kind of thing that might exploitable if the other negotiating team has any interest in actually interested in making a deal . There's little evidence that's the case at all. Oh, I think that they are interested in making a deal. But the deal has tgo be seen as a big win for the U.S. It'...
by ghariton
15 Jan 2018 13:24
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

NAFTA IS NOT DEAD and it will not die - it will live on. US benefits too much from it - lot of US jobs depend on it. No doubt. Unfortunately, many American voters don't like NAFTA , at least as it currently exists. That includes lots of Democrats, who are staying relatively silent on this. Given Be...
by ghariton
15 Jan 2018 00:30
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Net Present Value / Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 199

Re: Net Present Value / Intrinsic Value

I second P_I's suggestion that links to the websites you are consulting would be helpful. Meanwhile, I read your example as follows. There are three categories of cash flows (1) the initial outlay of $500,000, a negative cash flow at the beginning (2) annual profits for ten years, which have a prese...
by ghariton
14 Jan 2018 22:58
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Net Present Value / Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 199

Re: Net Present Value / Intrinsic Value

If I'm following you correctly, the answer is that you should do both, except that one has the wrong sign. You have eleven positive cash flows, the profit for each year plus the proceeds of sale at the end of the tenth year. Discount all of these to the present, with the proceeds of sale being disco...
by ghariton
13 Jan 2018 12:29
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

I get the impression that the present government has given up on renegotiating NAFTA (or was never serious in the first place). Perhaps they are secretly pleased. After all, they are looking for the left-wing vote, and the left, by and large, is against free trade (see for example Bernie Saunders fo...
by ghariton
12 Jan 2018 14:34
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: NAFTA is dead. So now what?
Replies: 48
Views: 2505

Re: NAFTA is dead. So now what?

As the world spins... Justin Trudeau’s “progressive” trade agenda — the insistence on including gender parity and Aboriginal issues in trade negotiations with the United States — is being cited as a barrier to progress by senior figures in the U.S. administration, according to people familiar with ...
by ghariton
12 Jan 2018 13:38
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

And George have you figured out why technical analysis doesn’t work for you? I think it's because there are so many professional, full-time technical analysts out there that I feel I don't have a chance. They will see the patterns before I do, and act on them before I can. Heck, there are many HFTs...
by ghariton
12 Jan 2018 00:20
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

Having the courage of conviction would mean sticking with stocks when I'm wrong. That seems like a good way to lose money. I guess that we differ on fundamental versus technical approaches. As has been posted elsewhere on this forum a few times, over the medium and long run, only a handful of stock...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 21:58
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

The question I ask is if you have a huge windfall stock, why would you continue to hold it while your unrealized profits disappear? According to this approach, you never would have huge windfall profits to start with. You would have sold after the first 20 per cent or 50 per cent (or whatever) rise...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:57
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

deaddog wrote:
11 Jan 2018 11:49
Hopefully I learned something.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Clearly Einstein never used the Internet :wink:

George
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:56
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

FinEcon wrote:
11 Jan 2018 11:40
implies that you 'know better'
That is the key.

I thought that I knew better than the market. But as usual I didn't.

The lesson I learned is that I am unlikely to know better than the market in future situations either. Hence I go with the market, via broad index funds.

George
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:50
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Optional Additional CPP
Replies: 23
Views: 613

Re: Optional Additional CPP

FWIW, I took CPP at 60. But at that time, the penalty for early start was much smaller, and I avoided a string of "zero" years. Longinvest has shown that even with a string of "zero" years, it makes a lot of sense to take the CPP at 70. Yes. Of course, I hadn't had the benefit of longinvest's analy...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:21
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

I guess it depends on your point of view. If you buy a stock for $11.00 and it went up to $120 then fall to $15 and you sell. Did you make $4 or did you lose $105? The opportunity was there to pocket the $105. The oportunity was also there to pocket significantly more than you sold for eventually a...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:16
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

But by focusing on what you paid, you become a victim of the "sunk cost fallacy". Shouldn't the focus be on the discounted cash flows? The only costs that matter are prospective costs, as seen at the point at which you make a decision. That's what I used to teach to my civil engineering students. T...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 11:10
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

That tells me what the stock did. I was wondering how you felt as the value of your investment dropped and why you continued to hold? My problem was that I was altogether too close to the industry. I had worked at Bell Northern Research and then Bell Canada. I had friends at many of the optical sys...
by ghariton
11 Jan 2018 00:15
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

It didn't drop that fast. What was going though your mind as you watched your gains disappear. Can't find the exact statistics, but apparently JDSU returned an average annual return of minus 46 per cent over the period 2000 to 2008. That's equivalent to losing half its value every year for eight ye...
by ghariton
10 Jan 2018 22:30
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Optional Additional CPP
Replies: 23
Views: 613

Re: Optional Additional CPP

A DB pension is the most efficient way to shift longevity risk from the individual to some group (other pensioners and shareholders in the case of a private plan, taxpayers in case of a public plan). Yes, longevity risk is only one factor to consider in considering DB pensions, and it can be taken c...
by ghariton
10 Jan 2018 21:34
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Lessons learned and mistakes made
Replies: 39
Views: 950

Re: How Did You Do in 2017?

But that was the conventional wisdom at the time, wasn't it? IIRC almost everyone here was unqualified "buy and hold". Those who increased their cash reserves were considered market timers. But the past 18 years have taught us that if there is thunder and lightning on the horizon, take some shelter...