Search found 3979 matches

by NormR
10 Mar 2024 16:47
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Basic Stock Portfolio Building (Individual Stocks)
Replies: 48
Views: 4333

Re: Basic Stock Portfolio Building (Individual Stocks)

BRIAN5000 wrote: 10 Mar 2024 16:16 Not sure what "52 Week Range (%)" means?
IIRC, (current price - 52 week low) / (52 week high - 52 week low) as a %
by NormR
06 Mar 2024 21:40
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 110
Views: 8724

Re: Clippings 2024

Profit not Prophet wrote: 06 Mar 2024 21:17 In the interview with Bloomberg, Einhorn declares that passive investing has fundamentally broken markets. And that the changes wrought from passive investing have meant he’s had to change his method of value investing to stay in business.
The value guys were (almost) all killed off in the late 1990s. The survivors made a killing in the early 2000s only to be shot in the late 2010s. It's almost like investing styles go into and out of fashion over the years ...

I do wonder where he's getting a bunch of P/CF~5 stocks with big buybacks. But they seem like fairly standard value picks to me - when they're available.
by NormR
29 Feb 2024 18:23
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: BCE (Symbol-BCE)
Replies: 1857
Views: 285345

Re: BCE (Symbol-BCE)

rharvey199 wrote: 29 Feb 2024 17:51 i'll move $ from BCE into one of your top 20 from the G&M article and sleep better at night :D
Out of the frying pan and into the fire! You might want to diversify a bit more. It hear it helps with the sleeping part.
by NormR
29 Feb 2024 17:42
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: BCE (Symbol-BCE)
Replies: 1857
Views: 285345

Re: BCE (Symbol-BCE)

Hum, BCE has BBB (stable) debt ratings and hasn't issued many shares over the last few years. So, it hasn't reached to the equity market to fund the dividend.

It would have been wise to slow the dividend growth to a nominal amount - the old 0.5 of a cent / yr trick. But it's not clear they can't skate through should interest rates fall over the next several quarters.

It'll be interesting to see.
by NormR
25 Feb 2024 20:53
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Retirement Strategy of living on Dividend Income?
Replies: 37
Views: 2036

Re: Retirement Strategy of living on Dividend Income?

Randyrdi wrote: 22 Feb 2024 09:41 I am single own my residence and at this point feel I can comfortably live on the dividend income from my portfolio consisting of mostly dividend growth companies in Canada.
One of the main problems, as I see it, is dealing with big crashes when dividends get cut. For instance, the S&P 500's inflation-adjusted dividends fell by ~50% in really bad cases, IIRC.

But retiring on 50% of dividend income translates into a small withdrawal rate well below the 4% rule of thumb. That is, the likelihood of saving too much is high.
by NormR
24 Feb 2024 16:23
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 110
Views: 8724

Re: Clippings 2024

BRIAN5000 wrote: 24 Feb 2024 16:06 Norm has two, FWIW what I think, are excellent articles but I see the stable portfolio has ENB but not TRP and I was wondering why?
As it happens, you can go to The Globe’s Dividend All-Stars 2024: Full ratings for 200 stocks and sort the table by volatility (click on the column heading) to quickly find that TRP had a higher volatility than ENB as of Feb 15.
by NormR
24 Feb 2024 10:50
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Russel Metals (Symbol-RUS)
Replies: 164
Views: 30609

Re: Russel Metals (Symbol-RUS)

Peculiar_Investor wrote: 24 Feb 2024 09:52 From another topic,
BRIAN5000 wrote: 24 Feb 2024 01:45 What is the lowest dividend RUS has ever paid?
Actual dividend or are you more interested in the divided yield history?

The actual dividend history can be found on Yahoo Finance at Russel Metals Inc. (RUS.TO) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance that would indicate that the quarterly $0.05 dividend back in 2000 was the lowest dividend. At that time the price was in the $4.00 range, making the yield around 5%.
Using a different data source, I have RUS cutting its dividend in 1992 and then reinstating it in 2000. But I'm doubtful the observation means much to today's investors.
by NormR
22 Feb 2024 11:02
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Nikkei 225
Replies: 23
Views: 773

Re: Nikkei 225

Based on posts here and in the media there's a substantial number of Canadians who are mostly or fully invested in only Canadian equities. They're exposed to the risk that Canadian equities may suffer a decades-long decline as Japan experienced back in 1989. Back then it was the second or third largest market IIRC. So a Japanese investor could have applied Bogle's argument about the S&P500 to the N225, i.e. that Japanese companies operate and earn profits worldwide so they provide global exposure. OTOH Canadians dividend growth investors could rationalize by arguing that their dividends are more secure than the NAVs of the underlying stocks, etc., at least in the shorter term. Possible, but it's a trickier argument. IIRC, at one point ...
by NormR
22 Feb 2024 08:09
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Nikkei 225
Replies: 23
Views: 773

Re: Nikkei 225

Bylo Selhi wrote: 22 Feb 2024 07:47 (Then again how many Canadians are 100% invested in Canadian stocks? :shock: )
I think U.S. stocks is the better analogy today. Mind you, Canada is a pretty small market. So, perhaps, our local "sin" is greater.
by NormR
21 Feb 2024 20:28
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: The Role Of Luck
Replies: 53
Views: 4128

Re: The Role Of Luck

It strikes me that "luck" is testable. Or rather one can test for factors that help or hurt. For instance, a quick google search leads to ... Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress How important is intelligence to financial success? Using the NLSY79, which tracks a large group of young U.S. baby boomers, this research shows that each point increase in IQ test scores raises income by between $234 and $616 per year after holding a variety of factors constant. Regression results suggest no statistically distinguishable relationship between IQ scores and wealth. Financial distress, such as problems paying bills, going bankrupt or reaching credit card limits, is related to IQ score...
by NormR
14 Feb 2024 20:22
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Measles Lands In Ontario
Replies: 0
Views: 249

Measles Lands In Ontario

Confirmed case of measles in child after recent travel. Peel Public Health warns of possible public exposure Public health warns people may have been exposed in the following locations: Feb. 1, Wow...What A Deal!, 3100 Dixie Rd., Mississauga, from approximately 6 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. Feb. 1, Walmart, 1500 Dundas St. E., Mississauga, from approximately 7 p.m. to 10.00 p.m. Feb. 3, Trillium Health Partners Mississauga Site, 100 Queensway W., Emergency Department, from approximately 2 a.m. to 7 a.m. Feb. 5, 400 Dundas Medical, 400 Dundas St. E. #105a, Mississauga, from approximately 10.30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Feb. 6 and 7, Trillium Health Partners Mississauga Site, 100 Queensway W., Emergency Department, from approximately 7 p.m. Feb. 6 to 11:30 a.m. ...
by NormR
08 Feb 2024 19:38
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Symbol-FFH)
Replies: 172
Views: 31204

Re: Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Symbol-FFH)

ukridge wrote: 08 Feb 2024 18:54 Ouch! Down almost 12% today.
The MW report was pretty weak IMHO. It was basically a valuation-based short (arguing for a 18% overstatement of book value) for a company trading at 5 times forward earnings. :roll:

It's completely incorrect to associate growth in Fairfax with book value adjustment
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/v ... rt~2863752

Perhaps the report allowed for a little short covering of a position gone very wrong?

A big drip might prompt me to buy more. :wink:
by NormR
31 Jan 2024 17:01
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: DUCA
Replies: 3
Views: 475

Re: DUCA

Is Duca likely to be impacted majorly by the $16 million left outstanding on the loan?

Add: They seem to have ~6.4 billion in loans. Unless there's something else going on, a $16 million charge (likely partly recoverable) seems like chump change.
by NormR
20 Jan 2024 22:20
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: How much is enough?
Replies: 184
Views: 16147

Re: How much is enough?

OnlyMyOpinion wrote: 20 Jan 2024 21:51 It may convenient for Fidelity though if you think that is a median retirement income - you might feel more pressure to buy the Fidelity etfs they are selling in hopes of catching up.
The Fidelity ETFs mentioned have an allocation to "crypto" :rofl:
by NormR
18 Jan 2024 19:07
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: What is the expected average long-term yield on equities?
Replies: 21
Views: 1325

Re: What is the expected average long-term yield on equities?

AltaRed wrote: 18 Jan 2024 18:50 You probably should now fix the click through links to the Asset Mixer and Periodic Table from https://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/artic ... lios.shtml
Thanks, I've updated the Asset Mixer and Table links. The others will require more work.

All of the links have now been repaired. :)
by NormR
18 Jan 2024 18:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: What is the expected average long-term yield on equities?
Replies: 21
Views: 1325

Re: What is the expected average long-term yield on equities?

AltaRed wrote: 18 Jan 2024 15:41 I use Norm Rothery's (Stingy Investor) Asset Mixer for looking at various periods of returns for specific asset classes...though Norm's asset mixer won't load from the link on his site. Over the past 30 years or so, we have been mostly blessed with high single digit returns on equities.

FP Standards Council guidelines of Apr 2023 forecast in the range of 6.5% nominal for equities.
The link changed when I recently had to move hosts. It is now ...

https://www.stingyinvestor.com/SC/AssetMixer.pl
by NormR
13 Jan 2024 00:28
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg
Replies: 49
Views: 2912

Re: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg

OTOH, there is a recent study based on extending stock and bond data back to ~1800 that indicates stocks and bonds provided roughly equal returns over the very long run (or at least longer run). So, forget about the rosy base-rate returns starting in ~1900 because the historical record isn't nearly so kind to stocks. Dial back those return expectations ... It's a quandary. Stick with recent data, and there isn't enough of it. But the further back you go, the less relevant the analysis. I suppose that the obvious recommendation is to do both. But what to do when the results conflict? Boosting ones uncertainty estimates is probably the most sensible course of action. It's likely we know less than we think we do when it comes to the markets.
by NormR
13 Jan 2024 00:16
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg
Replies: 49
Views: 2912

Re: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg

I'd like to read the study that details bond returns from 1800 - what is that? Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No Abstract: When Jeremy Siegel published his “Stocks for the Long Run” thesis, little was known about 19th-century stock and bond returns. Digital archives have made it possible to compute real total return on US stock and bond indexes from 1792. The new historical record shows that over multi-decade periods, sometimes stocks outperformed bonds, sometimes bonds outperformed stocks and sometimes they performed about the same. New international data confirm this pattern. Asset returns in the US in the 20th century do not generalize. Regimes of asset outperformance come and go; sometimes there is an equity premium,...
by NormR
12 Jan 2024 21:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg
Replies: 49
Views: 2912

Re: Portfolio Construction Based on Rational Reminder #284 w/Scott Cederburg

A couple of idle thoughts ...

There's a risk of ruin paper out there that indicates 100% stocks is the way to go when the Trinity study is moved internationally mainly because bonds really sucked in some countries (usually due to wars.)

OTOH, there is a recent study based on extending stock and bond data back to ~1800 that indicates stocks and bonds provided roughly equal returns over the very long run (or at least longer run). So, forget about the rosy base-rate returns starting in ~1900 because the historical record isn't nearly so kind to stocks. Dial back those return expectations ...
by NormR
10 Jan 2024 18:57
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources
Replies: 544
Views: 114404

Re: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources

StuBee wrote: 10 Jan 2024 10:52 I have been getting my quotes from Morningstar Canada. They have "Total Return" data for stocks and funds.
Question: Total return for funds, does that include the reinvestment of all distributions?
It should.
StuBee wrote: 10 Jan 2024 10:52 Total return for stocks must include dividends. I presume that the TR does not presume that the dividends are then dripped back into the stock. Am I right about this?
No, dividends are assumed to be reinvested.
by NormR
01 Jan 2024 13:42
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Retirement Countdown: Start of 2025
Replies: 74
Views: 3974

Re: Retirement Countdown: Start of 2025

Descartes wrote: 01 Jan 2024 09:41 Unless there is a truly outrageous counter-offer from my boss, I will quit exactly a year from now. I will periodically write about my preparations for retirement here. Maybe people can learn from this folly. Maybe I can learn from you. Maybe it will be a little entertaining for the both of us.
Have you had, say, a month long vacation recently?

If not, you might want try going to part-time work before cutting it out entirely. (Of course, it might not be possible, depending on the circumstances.)

Problem is, you might find retiring "cold-turkey" to be too boring.
by NormR
29 Dec 2023 23:41
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources
Replies: 544
Views: 114404

Re: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources

I had to move webhosts by the end of 2023 and was informed of the change just before Christmas. As a result, things have been a little busy. Here are links to the new Asset Mixer and Periodic Table of Annual Returns for Canadians In the move I had to dig into the code for both and make changes. In the process, I decided to track U.S. bonds using FRED data for 3-month Treasury Bills, 5-year Treasury Bonds, and 10-year Treasury Bonds. The returns for 3-month bills are approximated by simply using yield. The other two bootstrap returns using Aswath Damodaran's method ... To compute the return on a constant maturity bond, I add two components - the promised coupon at the start of the year and the price change due to interest rate changes. The r...