Search found 2706 matches

by NormR
08 Mar 2017 23:56
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Stability of Manitoba credit unions?
Replies: 24
Views: 488

Re: Stability of Manitoba credit unions?

You may be surprized to learn CDIC is not backed by the federal printing presses. CDIC is a crown Corp. It is not guaranteed by the federal government. Failure of a financial institution are covered by premiums paid by member institutions in CDIC. Is it possible the federal government would step in...
by NormR
08 Mar 2017 11:14
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Stability of Manitoba credit unions?
Replies: 24
Views: 488

Re: Stability of Manitoba credit unions?

I trust them about as much as I trust Icelandic banks except the MB outfits can't print their own money. They should be fine in a modest downturn but all hell might break loose in a big crash. Too risky for me, but other people seem to enjoy picking up nickles in front of steamrollers.
by NormR
03 Feb 2017 13:36
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources
Replies: 465
Views: 83550

Re: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources

NormR wrote:Thanks to a sneak preview by Norbert, my Asset Mixer and Periodic Table have been updated to reflect nominal return data for 2016. 8)
Thanks to Norbert, I've just added real return data for 2016.
by NormR
29 Jan 2017 22:47
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: us treasury yield curve chart link
Replies: 4
Views: 336

Re: us treasury yield curve chart link

(Note that the implied inflation is the difference between the nominal and real returns on a 30 year government bond. That includes a premium for insurance against unexpected inflation as well as the expected inflation. That suggests that expected inflation is less than 1.5% per year for the next 3...
by NormR
06 Jan 2017 13:44
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources
Replies: 465
Views: 83550

Re: Stock/Bond/Index/Fundamental/Asset Class/Quotes - Sources

Thanks to a sneak preview by Norbert, my Asset Mixer and Periodic Table have been updated to reflect nominal return data for 2016. 8)
by NormR
19 Dec 2016 21:34
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing styles
Replies: 193
Views: 17106

Re: Investing styles

I hope Norm Rothery does not read that. It would r e a l l y wreck his Christmas. I might have retweeted the article when it was first published. I also invested in the period in question and have some familiarity with it. Value has had many 10+year periods of underperformance as I mentioned in ......
by NormR
15 Dec 2016 14:59
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 61
Views: 4053

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

A quick return update: A Hot Potato feast
by NormR
04 Dec 2016 20:59
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 61
Views: 4053

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

The "Hot Potato" theory you describe shouldn't be allowed to use that name, because it seems to me to be no more than a variation of market timing using index funds. I think the name is pretty good, if I do say so myself. It expresses some of the essence of the strategy while being a bit cheeky and...
by NormR
03 Dec 2016 13:03
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: When odds are in your favour
Replies: 71
Views: 2712

Re: When odds are in your favour

It's hard to apply the Kelly approach to the market because (apart from a few specialized cases) it's hard to calculate the odds correctly. As a result, one should generally under bet. IIRC, "half Kelly" is rather common rule of thumb.
by NormR
03 Dec 2016 12:54
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: When odds are in your favour
Replies: 71
Views: 2712

Re: When odds are in your favour

A link to Ian's article, which is behind the G&M paywall: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... e33183678/
by NormR
03 Dec 2016 12:51
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: When odds are in your favour
Replies: 71
Views: 2712

Re: When odds are in your favour

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Depending on the setup, one also has to factor in the probability that the game is rigged in some way. But I'm off to read the article before commenting further. :)
by NormR
02 Dec 2016 23:25
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 61
Views: 4053

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

A few notes. 1. EWC didn't make an impact until near the end. So, the results should be similar to a similar U.S. method http://www.optimalmomentum.com/gem_trackrecord.html 2. The S&P500 is a poor benchmark for the approach. 3. It certainly doesn't outperform each - or a blend of all - of its consti...
by NormR
18 Oct 2016 14:10
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: Sustainable Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 608
Views: 87592

Re: Sustainable Withdrawal Rates

Thank you for the link to Estrada's paper. From Exhibit 4, I note that a 4% withdrawal rate, historically, has been completely safe for Canada and New Zealand, and pretty safe for Australia, the U.S., the U.K. (all Anglo-American countries), and also for South Africa and Denmark (perhaps an honorar...
by NormR
13 Aug 2016 13:25
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2016
Replies: 189
Views: 12092

Re: Clippings 2016

Btw, I got the article from Moshe A. Milevsky's twitter. So, follow both @RetirementQuant and @NormanRothery and pay attention to Prof Milevsky's objections. Your twitter links are both to yourself, you narcissist: I think you meant https://twitter.com/RetirementQuant LOL, oops, corrected. :)
by NormR
13 Aug 2016 12:23
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2016
Replies: 189
Views: 12092

Re: Clippings 2016

longinvest wrote:Finiki's Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW).
Btw, who made / is responsible for the spreadsheet?
by NormR
12 Aug 2016 15:13
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2016
Replies: 189
Views: 12092

Re: Clippings 2016

To tell the truth, I much prefer our Finiki's Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW). It is almost as simple as age divided by 20, but way more reasonable. I think most people here are capable of understanding more complicated - and likely more accurate - methods. :) Btw, I got the article from Moshe...
by NormR
01 Aug 2016 18:12
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 61
Views: 4053

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

What I question is how the backtesting can be correct considering that the articles are doing testing on products that didn't exist. The SPYDR didn't exist until 1993, and international funds didn't exist until 2005, so it seems rather pointless to use datapoints that start in 1980. The indexes exi...
by NormR
01 Aug 2016 12:05
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Passive Investing
Replies: 72
Views: 2535

Re: Passive Investing

The primary way I deal with it is by including bonds in my portfolio. They are an excellent portfolio ballast and they dampen the volatility of stocks. According to The Stingy Investor Asset Mixer , from 1961 to 2015 (a period of 55 years), a 100% Canadian stocks portfolio returned 9.327% with a st...
by NormR
31 Jul 2016 21:37
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: "Hot Potato" anyone??
Replies: 61
Views: 4053

Re: "Hot Potato" anyone??

The Hot Potato approach isn’t for everyone and should only be attempted by aggressive, seasoned investors. New investors should stick with the more conventional Couch Potato method, which encourages long holding periods. As always, for the best outcome, know your inner investor. Some people can han...
by NormR
30 Jul 2016 19:50
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Newbie Canadian Dividend Portfolio
Replies: 64
Views: 2123

Re: Newbie Canadian Dividend Portfolio

It would be interesting, to me anyway, that if someone had good back-testing capabilities to see how Canadian stocks with an SPP & OCP & a discount performed* over the long term against the TSX index. Do these three or even two of the three have any predictive power? I don't know of a back tester w...
by NormR
30 Jul 2016 14:58
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Newbie Canadian Dividend Portfolio
Replies: 64
Views: 2123

Re: Newbie Canadian Dividend Portfolio

if you must stock pick Dogs is good, Norms safer dogs may be even better which may be just the same as what "shakespeare" and "somac" said. The safer list is over at MoneySense. Here's the latest , just scroll down the page a bit. The stocks are: National Bank (NA), CIBC (CM), Shaw (SJR.B), Bank of...
by NormR
24 May 2016 16:53
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investment Style - Cdn Equity Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 1026

Re: Investment Style - Cdn Equity Portfolio

Equally weighted indexes tend to perform better than market cap weighted ones over the long term. But funds that follow them tend to do too much trading, in my view, because they rebalance frequently. Going roughly equally weighted with lazy/no rebalancing seems like a good option to me. For instanc...
by NormR
22 Feb 2016 23:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Federal budget 2016
Replies: 39
Views: 1905

Re: Federal budget 2016

Of course if the young docs head south as a result waiting lists will get even longer than they are already so even 75 year old retired docs like myself may have to re-enter the workforce! i guess it's nice to be needed! Well, the Bank of Canada's Loonie policy will likely prompt more brain drain o...
by NormR
20 Feb 2016 14:06
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Home bias risk doesn't show in the data
Replies: 25
Views: 1088

Re: Home bias risk doesn't show in the data

JohnnyFactor wrote:OP here. My chart doesn't include compounding or dividends, just straight up Y-Y returns.
FYI, the data at http://www.ndir.com/cgi-bin/PeriodicTab ... eturns.cgi includes dividend reinvestment. i.e. total returns rather than capital gains.
by NormR
18 Feb 2016 11:51
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Home bias risk doesn't show in the data
Replies: 25
Views: 1088

Re: Home bias risk doesn't show in the data

For the long term, take a look at the CS Yearbook http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=AE3E00B9-91E2-D1FA-6C18765D3A968D73 You'll notice that the Canadian stock market has been one of the best gainers. But who's to say we won't turn into an Italy or worse over the...