Search found 898 matches

by tidal
28 Dec 2013 12:28
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Global Warming Theme and Investing?
Replies: 113
Views: 10871

Re: Global Warming Theme and Investing?

Apparently they missed Mike Schmiek's memo... Toronto Hydro report warned of increased risk of power outages due to climate change A Toronto Hydro vulnerability study published last year warned that climate change could result in more severe freezing rain storms, increasing the risk of major power o...
by tidal
26 Dec 2013 13:03
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: New Normal
Replies: 79
Views: 4455

Re: New Normal

Wealth (and income) distribution in America. What the average American thinks it is, what 92% of them - Democrats and Republicans - thinks it should be, and what it actually is...

by tidal
19 Dec 2013 22:13
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Mike: The Ins and Outs
Replies: 674
Views: 40641

Re: Mike: The Ins and Outs

We needn't worry about Mike, because he won't be holding for more than a few months, but COS is locked in for a course to zero, so they really should be returning the capital to their shareholders. Dividend increases will startle the fewest horses near-term, but this will be case study in future "Co...
by tidal
05 Dec 2013 17:16
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1259
Views: 124199

Re: Oil

Buh-bye little oil sands, buh-bye. Who knew? 8) Worst-Case Scenario for Oil Sands Industry Has Come to Life, Wiki-Leaked Document Shows Industry consultants said anti-tar sands push could become 'the most significant environmental campaign of the decade' if activists were left unopposed. By Katherin...
by tidal
04 Dec 2013 09:00
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1259
Views: 124199

Re: Oil

On the one hand, if we can foist this dog off now on the sly to the Chinese at a 67% market premium before it eventually implodes, it's probably a good thing for pension funds, etc. And, I suppose the Chinese have deep enough pockets that they will be able to just write off $16 billion or so and ju...
by tidal
26 Nov 2013 15:02
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Global Warming Theme and Investing?
Replies: 113
Views: 10871

Re: Global Warming Theme and Investing?

... er, adrian2, you do know that mildly reduced "frequency" of hurricanes due to global warming is a prediction of mainstream climate science, don't you bud? Maybe it's "increased intensity" you are confusing... as Nemo2 used to mangle all the time.. I'm SURE some excellent, definitive links to the...
by tidal
27 Oct 2013 01:12
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: the ongoing "active" vs "passive" debate
Replies: 343
Views: 42640

Re: the ongoing "active" vs "passive" debate

We already knew from Sharpe's simple market arithmetic that for any time period, some active managers will outperform. Indeed. We know that, before fees and on a market-cap-weighted basis, half will over-perform and half will under-perform. No, it means I'll outperform and the rest of you suckers w...
by tidal
18 Oct 2013 22:29
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Profiting from Transcanada West-East Pipeline
Replies: 2
Views: 374

Re: Profiting from Transcanada West-East Pipeline

... like speculating on how to profit on the elevator to Jupiter... fun to think about. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Yer welcome.
by tidal
18 Oct 2013 19:47
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: The Black Swan - Thinking the Impossible?
Replies: 55
Views: 10824

Re: The Black Swan - Thinking the Impossible?

Might be an intriguing paper. fwiw...

... apparently "black swans" are soooooooo 2000's...now it's "dragon kings"!!!
by tidal
14 Oct 2013 12:06
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Time to kill the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences?
Replies: 6
Views: 1336

Re: Time to kill the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Scienc

Fama, Shiller, Hansen Win 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics I have no opinion on whether Eugene Fama deserves a Nobel. But: How could they give it to him and not his cojoined twin Kenneth French? :roll: That makes little sense to me. What am I missing? They are pretty clearly giving it to Fama for work...
by tidal
09 Oct 2013 19:08
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Impending US Default?
Replies: 19
Views: 1272

Re: Impending US Default?

‘Yes, we think Congress is doing a good job!’” Psychiatrists Deeply Concerned For 5% Of Americans Who Approve Of Congress ... the nation’s psychiatrists announced Wednesday that they are deeply concerned for the estimated 5 percent of Americans who were found in nationwide polls this week to approv...
by tidal
01 Oct 2013 18:51
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Technical analysis anyone?
Replies: 443
Views: 45738

Re: Technical analysis anyone?

Technical Stock Analysis (MACD) 1. Physics 0. Over at frequently-linked-to-FWF "Grampa's Favourite Climate Blog" , they are busy discussing the application of Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) technical stock analysis filters to physical reality. Conclusion? Physics r teh loser. MACD for...
by tidal
09 Aug 2013 19:30
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Going "private"
Replies: 17
Views: 1154

Re: Going "private"

There's no "ipso facto" "best" way for an asset or enterprise to be owned. Should your home, medical practice be owned publicly? What would be the effect on local employment? Should my new company be public pre-revenue? Not following this. Different strokes, different folks. Goes for assets and ente...
by tidal
09 Aug 2013 17:01
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: the ongoing "active" vs "passive" debate
Replies: 343
Views: 42640

Re: the ongoing "active" vs "passive" debate

I was never a big fan of Ken Fischer (Fisher?) who was (is?) a Forbes columnist / money manager. But he used to make a similar point. That being forced to go through the extra mental calculus of "Do I really want to sell BCE? BNS? Loblaw?" , etc. - versus, say, "Do I really want to sell XDV?" may be...
by tidal
08 Aug 2013 14:50
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: BlackBerry (Symbol-BB) formerly Research in Motion (RIM)
Replies: 737
Views: 68776

Re: BlackBerry (Symbol-BB) formerly Research in Motion (RIM)

The encryption methods presently being used to secure Internet connections are under threat from increasingly powerful attacks, as well as advances in crypto math. The likely next generation of stronger encryption is based on ECC (elliptic curve cryptography). One of RIM BlackBerry's subsidiaries, ...
by tidal
15 Jul 2013 09:54
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Shoppers Drug Mart (Symbol-SC) -- why so beaten down lately?
Replies: 264
Views: 26370

Re: Shoppers Drug Mart (Symbol-SC) -- why so beaten down lat

I own shares in Shoppers Drug Mart but I'm not happy that this company is being taken over. Before there was a choice of seven Canadian companies with dividend growth to choose from. If this deal is finalized, the count will be down to six on my watch list. Aside from Loblaws giving their sharehold...
by tidal
03 Jul 2013 17:14
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: A Difference of Opinion on Dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: A Difference of Opinion on Dividends

Anyone up to taking out the farcical "5%" claim made elsewhere yesterday? Not sure what claim you're referring to. Could you provide some guidance? don't worry about it. I'll do it myself. But just to hint at the risible mistakes that regularly pass FWF scrutiny with impunity... Let's just say we'r...
by tidal
03 Jul 2013 14:57
Forum: Retirement, Pensions and Peace of Mind
Topic: A Difference of Opinion on Dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1211

Re: A Difference of Opinion on Dividends

Mostly just fancy ways of saying "it depends. Talk to MEEEE." Miller-Modigliani and "dividend indifference" has some useful - albeit abstract and overtly relaxed - assumptions. Duh. The "controversy" is about the essentially unknowable idiosyncrasies of applying it to investor x and firm y . Whateve...
by tidal
27 Jun 2013 21:10
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1259
Views: 124199

Re: Oil

Well, let's see what happens this time. Last time this came up, top mucky-mucks at FWF management apparently decreed it "not finance/economics/investing" or "don't startle the horses" or some such. And it was quietly split-off and relegated off to its own specially-created "Around the Water Cooler -...
by tidal
13 Jun 2013 21:00
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Real Return Bonds
Replies: 1324
Views: 203485

Re: Real Return Bonds

Isn't this hinting at deflation? (Oh wait, wait, what am I thinking???... NO WAY we can have DEflation. Didn't the omniscient Milton Friedman promise us that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"? So we could turn our brains off and spend all our time haranguing anyone who said ...
by tidal
16 Apr 2013 10:31
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Gold
Replies: 1010
Views: 98513

Re: Gold

Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey : While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold’s role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as ‘gold is an inflation hedge’. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is...
by tidal
15 Apr 2013 12:01
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Risk over time - contradictory opinions
Replies: 49
Views: 3096

Re: Risk over time - contradictory opinions

FWIW, I did find the Vanguard chart that Tidal linked misleading. More useful would be a graph of a series of Monte Carlo simulations showing the possible final outcomes (ending portfolio value at time of retirement) with different asset allocations. That's what the graph shows. Imagine those bars ...
by tidal
04 Apr 2013 16:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: erooM's Law
Replies: 7
Views: 790

Re: erooM's Law

FWIW I remember people saying we'd never see $1/watt. The solar flux the price of silicon etc.. I saw a report somewhere recently that solar is already competitive or cheaper in Arizona or Hawaii. yes, very good news continues on this front. The technical solutions exist and are increasingly compet...
by tidal
04 Apr 2013 16:08
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: erooM's Law
Replies: 7
Views: 790

Re: erooM's Law

Swanson's law FWIW I remember people saying we'd never see $1/watt. The solar flux the price of silicon etc.. If I recall correctly, solar photovoltaics are approaching something like 80-90% of maximum theoretical thermodynamic efficiency already. Those gains have come from the easy part of the cur...