Search found 590 matches

by gyrfalcon
06 Jun 2013 06:54
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2013
Replies: 451
Views: 28077

Re: Clippings 2013

I must admit that I'm surprised at the hostility to the blogger. No, I didn't go to the second level to read his recommended portfolios. I was simply interested in his general bond market commentary. I didn't parse or check his numbers. The static 60/40 portfolio is pretty standard stuff and has worked remarkably well up to now, as bonds have saved the equity component's bacon. But market luminaries -- Peter Bernstein for one -- have called it into question since the tech bust. And even Warren Buffett doesn't especially like bonds right now. I couldn't say it any better. The response, and not just from scomac by any means, leads me to ask **myself** "What, exactly, is still open for discussion on that site ? Perhaps near-total consens...
by gyrfalcon
05 Jun 2013 06:43
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2013
Replies: 451
Views: 28077

Re: Clippings 2013

http://moneygeek.ca/weblog/2013/06/01/open-challenge-canadian-couch-potato/#.Ua1PdNLFWSo Disappointment In Store For The Canadian Couch Potato? This piece strikes me as being more appropriate for the financial pornography thread. IMO the author is nothing more than a highly educated shill! :evil: Very harsh, me thinks. The points were made clearly and calmly. He barely mentions the possibility of long-term rates rising even more than 1%, surely a conceivable event. I think you should plan to re-visit your comment 3 years and 5 years from now. The Canadian Couch Potato may be a very important model with a fine record, but surely it is not "porn" to discuss its future after a period of financial engineering that none of us has ever...
by gyrfalcon
18 May 2013 06:52
Forum: Now Hear This!
Topic: Use of Stock Symbols
Replies: 25
Views: 2148

Use of Stock Symbols

You may have noticed the reduced participation at FWF. One reason for this, in any public forum, is when a small group of insiders talk to each other in code, ignoring everyone else. I have no problem whatsoever about use of stock symbols in **Company Specific** threads. The symbols are in the Subject lines and should be obvious in discussion below. What I object to is the use of stock symbols in generic threads like "What did you buy ..." and "What did you sell ... " . The use of symbols there is lazy, unthinking, condescending, whatever-you-prefer. I've been around Cdn investing for a long time & recognize many, many symbols. I have no idea what some of the symbols are on the two "What ... " threads &...
by gyrfalcon
04 May 2013 07:27
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Sell in May and go away
Replies: 44
Views: 4908

Re: Sell in May and go away

optionable68 wrote:I guess those who sold late April may have some regrets this year.
Aside from those who sold gold and gold stocks, I suspect that anyone who followed TA this year has been whipsawed within an inch of their life !
by gyrfalcon
06 Apr 2013 05:00
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: "Theft, pure and simple"
Replies: 182
Views: 12582

Re: "Theft, pure and simple"

As predicted, by someone who prefers to think logically about things:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e10823685/
by gyrfalcon
04 Apr 2013 20:51
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: "Theft, pure and simple"
Replies: 182
Views: 12582

Re: "Theft, pure and simple"

parvus wrote: What's not to understand?
When you have a deadline, you have a deadline ?

Perhaps we should give the media credit. I suspect this will all be made crystal-clear in the very near term. And when it is, we will all find that we have exactly zero worries, aside from the question as to whether "bail-in bonds" might be an interesting speculation.
by gyrfalcon
30 Mar 2013 05:50
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: "Theft, pure and simple"
Replies: 182
Views: 12582

Re: "Theft, pure and simple"

newguy wrote:So no ideas on why this is in a budget and not in a bill to change the bank act?
newguy
Were there any topics that were NOT included in the 2012 "budget" implementation legislation ? Could you name them please ?
by gyrfalcon
29 Mar 2013 06:44
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: "Theft, pure and simple"
Replies: 182
Views: 12582

Re: "Theft, pure and simple"

newguy wrote:
ghariton wrote:I have never seen any reference -- yet -- as to deposits being contingent in this way. I think some people have way too much imagination.
Well they have in other countries so that's a reference not requiring much imagination. You'd think if whoever wrote the budget didn't intend to include deposits in liabilities he'd have said so.

newguy
Or they may have thought that anyone who looked into the issue for 2 minutes would have no doubt whatsoever what would be under discussion (as George has detailed, from public info, above). Or they may have thought that any thinking person could see the difference between Cyprus and Canada.

It's a pleasure to be in total agreement with George, about once every year or so.
by gyrfalcon
22 Mar 2013 06:53
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Tim Hortons, inflation, fixed incomes, and investment themes
Replies: 18
Views: 1892

Re: Tim Hortons, inflation, fixed incomes, and investment th

There is nothing unique here. Why doesn't it fit within the THI thread ?
by gyrfalcon
18 Mar 2013 16:23
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Grantham's Prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 7678

Re: Grantham's Prediction

The answer to the shallow, rhetorical question re his owning the "tar sands" is simple and *critical*: He wouldn't own them. The article below claims that GMO has significant positions in Exxon and CNQ. Both companies develop tar sands. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1027951-jeremy-grantham-warns-of-no-safety-margin-from-this-collapse Thank you. My second point was poorly worded and/or poorly thought through. Of course, GMO as a Co. has very real obligations to all clients and cannot be totally offside from major sectors. My comment would apply to what I believe Grantham would do himself, for himself, as a direct investment. But no doubt he has large parts of GMO's general portfolios too, and therefore your point is *valid*. The...
by gyrfalcon
18 Mar 2013 15:32
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Grantham's Prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 7678

Re: Grantham's Prediction

FinEcon wrote:Well, IMO, one has to wonder how much Kinder Morgan, ETP, etc he owns? One also has to wonder what his beleif would be if he owned, in it's entirety, the 'tar sands'. Would the asset be destined to remain undeveloped?
It's kind of sad when it is assumed that no one can have genuine ethics. Anyone who reads Grantham (and believes that ethics do occur) will recognize that he is sincerely, hugely concerned about the future, more for future generations than for himself.

The answer to the shallow, rhetorical question re his owning the "tar sands" is simple and *critical*: He wouldn't own them.
by gyrfalcon
18 Mar 2013 07:29
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: "Theft, pure and simple"
Replies: 182
Views: 12582

Re: "Theft, pure and simple"

During and after the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, I'm sure I heard here and throughout the conservative North American commentary the viewpoint "Let the economy decide ! Government has no role ! Let the shareholders lose ! Let the debt holders lose ! Let the failed institutions go under !"

OK, I gather the banks are not going to be allowed to fail, taking the depositors down for 100%. But the depositors are being asked to share the pain up to a level of about 10%. So I'm a bit curious, really. Where are all the deep thinkers that were so keen on maximum, cleansing pain for everyone in 2008-2009, today ? When the pain really and truly is shared, you're left speechless ??
by gyrfalcon
11 Mar 2013 07:17
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Bailout of the big 3, is it really such a bad thing?
Replies: 892
Views: 63109

Re: Bailout of the big 3, is it really such a bad thing?

Most of the above can be viewed as further confirmation that the governments' bailout of the Big Three, and the subsequent rapid recovery of same, was one of the very best choices for Economic Crisis recovery impact that the two governments could possibly have chosen. The primary, secondary and tertiary impacts across the entire North American economy are obvious.

Any refusal to deny the success of the Big Three recovery effort is a prime example of " I know what I know, don't confuse me with facts."
by gyrfalcon
09 Mar 2013 06:57
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Canada's economy is in trouble
Replies: 37
Views: 3358

Re: Canada's economy is in trouble

From the prestigious school of "If You Aren't Worried, You Aren't Paying Attention" we have a sober look. May I be so fortunate as to live in these terribly difficult (ROFLMAO) times for the rest of my days ?
by gyrfalcon
17 Feb 2013 07:04
Forum: Community Centre
Topic: Science is amazing
Replies: 818
Views: 55673

Re: Science is amazing

The point is made that "science", "peer review", etc. are not perfect. FINE. Is there any intelligent person who was not already aware of that ?

What is the objective of this discussion ? Seriously, what is it ? Is it to show how brilliant someone is because they directly understand the imperfections ?

The society that we live in today (mass culture) has an order of magnitude larger problems with the mass population that chooses to disbelieve all sorts of *more or less* proven Science. I have a hard time thinking of critical problems caused by unthinking acceptance of Science.
by gyrfalcon
17 Feb 2013 06:47
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: The 'Great Rotation'
Replies: 16
Views: 979

Re: The 'Great Rotation'

As ig17 says very well, there is no need to talk about funds moving from bonds to stocks. The price of bonds, and the total sector valuation, can go down very nicely all by themselves, simply by interest rates going up. There is no flow of funds somewhere else. On paper at least, the funds simply disappear. Remember equities in '08-'09 ? It's a bit harder to get your head around with bonds, but it's the very same. The "money" is gone. No one else has it to spend. So it won't be busy boosting the stock market either, at that point.

This has been discussed 11 months ago:

http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/for ... 3&t=114704
by gyrfalcon
15 Feb 2013 06:58
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Oil
Replies: 1564
Views: 224761

Re: Oil

tidal wrote:Whoa! Who could've guessed this?

HSBC: Oil majors at risk from 'unburnable' reserves
There really is no question that there are investment issues here that need to be recognized. It's actually easy to make the case that they are playing out in Alberta "as we speak". And it's somewhat shocking, frankly, to see leading FWF members stating "not in my lifetime". Really ? (Good luck with that.) Have we not all learned by now how quickly major policy issues, sector valuations, one-direction investments, can turn, once the turn finally gets underway ?
by gyrfalcon
30 Jan 2013 13:44
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: BlackBerry (Symbol-BB) formerly Research in Motion (RIM)
Replies: 745
Views: 87792

Re: Research in Motion (Symbol-RIM)

Now that BB10 is out, the share price of RIM/BB will be determined by the actual performance of the new OS, buyer perception of that performance, unit sales month by month and profitability, or loss. The ongoing price will be set by reality, whatever that proves to be. I, personally, am completely open to finding that out.

The glitziness, or not, of today's presentation, and the "projections" of analysts will have very little role. The scrambling of the "analysts" over the past month, to follow the share price, has already been nothing less than hilarious.

This is a "show me" story in the very best sense. gyr.
by gyrfalcon
30 Jan 2013 13:24
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Canadian Banks
Replies: 1889
Views: 233288

Re: Canadian Banks

It's a wonderful thing when a person realizes that they know everything they need to know and that any further discussion or second-guessing oneself will likely be counter-productive. This is much harder to attain than most, even here, can fully realize. It has been said many times that when your confidence is at its highest, you are at the greatest risk of experiencing a negative outcome. (I wonder if that came about in large part to the notorious LTCM blow-up? :roll: ) Perhaps the more useful way of interpreting this is that what has always worked in the past may not always work in the future, but that doesn't change the fact that the decision was the appropriate one at the time. It's not about never making a mistake. Mistakes will be ma...
by gyrfalcon
30 Jan 2013 07:00
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: Canadian Banks
Replies: 1889
Views: 233288

Re: Canadian Banks

.... As far as I am concerned, investors who hop in and out of banks are wasting their time, uselessly paying CG tax and more than likely not as well off compared to having simply bought and held. It is utter fancy to actually think that you can know when to get out and know when to get back in. No, if you believe the company is solid (and a good proxy for this is: Old, and big with a rising dividend) then buy it and forget about it! StuBee It's a wonderful thing when a person realizes that they know everything they need to know and that any further discussion or second-guessing oneself will likely be counter-productive. This is much harder to attain than most, even here, can fully realize. Note: This is a 100% sincere comment, just to be ...
by gyrfalcon
30 Jan 2013 06:41
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: TD Direct Investing (was Waterhouse) Service
Replies: 3927
Views: 433347

Re: TD Waterhouse Service

AltaRed wrote:Maybe time to ditch TDW given the recent issues in performance and reliability.
Good luck with that, in terms of eventual satisfaction. Please report back after three years.
by gyrfalcon
22 Jan 2013 06:26
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: RBC DI no longer selling Mawer funds
Replies: 34
Views: 4903

Re: RBC DI no longer selling Mawer funds

In this G&M article, the funds were chosen on a 1-yr 2012 performance screen. OK, not a perfect screen. NOW: among this group, which fund is first for 3 yrs, 5 yrs, and 10 yrs ?? Hhhmmmm.

"View full table" button:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... le7601061/
by gyrfalcon
05 Jan 2013 09:53
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: So how did you do in 2012?
Replies: 114
Views: 5639

Re: So how did you do in 2012?

As stated a few times, I have a DB pension that comes close to our basic needs. CPP etc. adds to what I consider our FI portfolio. I've never held any real amount of FI in our investment accounts. I always calculate holdings and returns across all 4 accounts. One account is taxable and I don't deduct taxes due from annual returns. I started calculating annual returns as of Jan. 1, 2000 when we had low 6 figures. Today we have mid+ 6 figures. As of Dec. 31st we were 5.1% cash and 94.9% equities. For 2012 we gained 15.5% including dividends. For the 13 yrs 2000-2012 I calculate 8.25% CAGR. The years 2003-2007 were pretty good. In 2008 I was down 27%. Jan-Mar 2009 continued brutal. 2009-2010 were good. In 2011 I was down 10.4%. I've always stu...
by gyrfalcon
20 Dec 2012 13:12
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Re: My Portfolio Seeking advice, please help (2011-2012)
Replies: 123
Views: 14930

Re: What did you buy? What might you buy? (2012)

adrian2 wrote:
gyrfalcon wrote:Personally, I would not respect any investment manager who did *not* have a 7% objective.
Agreed. I'd go further and say equities have better than even odds to do at least 7%, but that's just an opinion, not a guarantee.
gyrfalcon wrote:But to slap down 7% is not helpful.
The guarantee was slapped down, not the number per se.
I'll take that in the good spirit stated later. I've mellowed myself and can't be bothered debating much of anything anymore. I've found my investment returns speak for themselves, to me.

But you know, " ... that ain't gonna happen either." really speaks to the return and to that degree I stand by my comment.

Still own CWB with a 143% CG on a 3000 share position. The dividends are above that.

Cheers, Adrian.