Search found 2256 matches

by Mordko
27 Mar 2024 07:58
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155666

Re: Inflation

Lots of articles on Ontario budget deficits going from essentially zero to $10bn. Expenditure grew steadily but income didn’t grow at all.

I am assuming the situation for the Feds will be worse as new structural expenditure is pushing the costs up and there was a lot of red ink to start with. Presumably money supply will increase to try and deal with the growing mountain of debt.

Are we entering a period of stagflation?
by Mordko
25 Mar 2024 12:50
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

The problem is that we don’t have enough people and corps owning multiple properties. And that landlords are not given enough protection from the renters. And that anti-landlord populist rhetoric generates real risks for 5he owners.

As a result we have a shortage of rental stock and, crucially, its not growing. In all likelihood, landlords are underinvesting too, so the quality is probably suffering. With population growing superfast, this will have a detrimental effect on young people in particular.
by Mordko
25 Mar 2024 08:24
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: Attribution of Contributions from Joint Bank Account
Replies: 22
Views: 460

Re: Attribution of Contributions from Joint Bank Account

We do the same thing. Joint chequing account, receiving salaries.

I think the risk of CRA going after you is very small because it would be a campaign impacting most families in the country. They don’t have the resources. The risk goes up if there is something special going on, eg you have all salary income but your wife gets all the investment income. Then a piece of software can plausibly catch you.
by Mordko
25 Mar 2024 06:42
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 39
Views: 1190

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

Factor investing might work. However, you may experience long periods of underperformance. Like 10, 20 or 30 years. You must be prepared to stick with it through thick and thin. Switching following a long period of factor underperformance is the worst possible strategy.

Then again, your factor might not work at all on a going forward basis. That would be a bummer.
by Mordko
25 Mar 2024 06:06
Forum: Stocks, Bonds, ETFs, Funds, REITS and More
Topic: VCIP (bonds) - why so awful?
Replies: 15
Views: 409

Re: VCIP (bonds) - why so awful?

1. Bonds and GICs do OK whenever expectations are met. After all, that’s how they are priced in the first place: to account for market expectations of future inflation and overnight interest rates. 2. Bonds and GICs outperform when inflation over their duration ends up being less than expected. This happened for a long period of time spanning 40 years or so, except for the last couple of years. 3. Bonds and GICs destroy value when inflation exceeds expectations. This happened for most of the 20th century up until inflation was “conquered” around 1980. And again for the last couple of years. And the destruction of value tends to be permanent. The key point to note is that we have an inverses curve right now. The market expects that inflation...
by Mordko
24 Mar 2024 22:38
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

Yeah, OK. Different opinions on super-high immigration rates. The government obviously thought it was popular but they may have misread the leaves.
by Mordko
24 Mar 2024 08:14
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 39
Views: 1190

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

it's hard to ignore that we're in an overbought market
To me, this statement is self contradictory. “Overbought” means that the price is higher than the value. But this isn’t a car or a house. This is a highly liquid investment. The value of the stock market = price. And this value/price is determined by expectations of future returns which we don’t know and are unlikely to make a better guess than Mr Market.

A simpler way of putting it: developed country markets are efficient, and if so you can never say “overbought” in the present tense.

P.S. ZAG is showing 3.57% yield.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 23:31
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Clippings 2024
Replies: 129
Views: 10325

Re: Clippings 2024

Based on that logic and “nanny state” link, Turkey is the most civilized country in Europe. I think we can safely conclude that the logic is deeply flawed.

“Happiness” is a peculiar criterion. People with the Williams syndrome tend to be the happiest. Genetic and cultural factors likely play a role but the article in USA Today notes that countries with small populations tend to do well.

That said, the impact of high tax/high spend; nanny state governments on Canada and the US resulted in both countries becoming less “happy” compared to previous years.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 22:22
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 39
Views: 1190

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

Given the history of the markets, its unlikely that one can ever sell at the top. A 50 year old has a lot of years in front of, given life expectancy.

Yes, volatility and sequence of return risks become important as one is approaching retirement. Still, with a 40 year time horizon, other risks, such as high inflation devaluing fixed income, could become significant.

Of course if you have more than enough even accounting for potential erosion of your purchasing power, then getting out of the market works just fine. To me, that kind of decision should be based on other your personal circumstances rather than on trying to time the market and picking a random theory which does not work.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 20:09
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

The root cause might be to do with the inherent contradiction between:

1. People wanting to live in large houses (which take a lot of space and require lots of infrastructure)
2. People disliking high rises in their neighbourhoods.
3. People liking green belts and imposing all sorts of other constraints. Liking tough environmental legislation which makes it next to impossible to build new roads, etc.
4. People wanting a super high rate of immigration and fast population growth

Taxing and spending won’t solve anything at all. We either need to get to like living in smaller apartments or be prepared to take over some green field space.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 19:20
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 39
Views: 1190

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

The problem with CAPE is that it’s backwards looking and has no predictive power. I think I see what you mean. Those two graphs look the same in that a peak in valuation means a matching peak in ten-year-annualized losses for equity investors... ...but we don't know if we are at the top of a peak right now. Maybe valuations will continue to go up from here and we won't see the peak for another decade. Maybe valuations will go sideways from here on out. I suppose it's possible. Let me put it another way. Dr Shiller mined the data to develop his theory. It worked great for the data that he mined. It showed no predictive power on a going forward basis. Specifically, in 2014 talking heads (including Dr Shiller himself) predicted a market Armag...
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 18:31
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation
Replies: 39
Views: 1190

Re: Investing with a Ten Year Horizon under 2024's Market Valuation

The problem with CAPE is that it’s backwards looking and has no predictive power. Whenever the author tries to use CAPE to predict the future, he fails. Miserably. Like in 2014 when he claimed that everything is way too expensive. Ten years later everything has gone up in price. S&P 500 returned something like 175%. Its very cool when a theory is proven empirically by making a prediction which is shown to be right. Of course occasionally, the exact opposite happens. Like with CAPE. https://www.cnbc.com/id/101930841?view=story&accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiJ9.eyJleHAiOjE3MTEyMzI3NTMsImFwcF9hY2Nlc3MiOltdfQ.fWmYBiAImuANsZJrFt1NBkYDvJr-K9_8GUjJNjOqGSy-EuZPlFuOY04FE6lNxpnKVxIkp3ULT56_F4AXMRI6lWrnC-HCFCpjfEEPQ8PmxOpdqPoeQ88M1WtxEoHVoxBwiS...
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 18:17
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

Who is paying? The taxpayer? Why? Whats wrong with a more mobile workforce? Why not prioritize spending extra money (which we apparently have) on the homeless (whose numbers are growing fast along with rent prices)?
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 18:06
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

This desire for nanny state, to interfere and micromanage has never ever worked. Firstly, the fact that 4 out 5 properties are not rentals houses tells us that ownership rates in Canada are disproportionately high already compared to most if not all developed countries. Typically you get higher rates in countries with nasty regimes which don’t like business and where you don’t wanna live, or in formally communist nations which gave away all properties to those who inhabited them. Right now rental prices are very high and are going up. That means we don’t have enough inventory, which is indeed very low while demand is high. What have people who rent done to you? Why do you want to punish them even more? And what do you have against landlords...
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 14:19
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

Investors own 23.7 per cent of Ontario homes, report says By SHANE DINGMAN, the Globe and mail. A new report has found that owners of multiple properties remain the drivers of real estate purchasing in Ontario, as first-time buyers and people moving house slowed down their purchases in 2023. The story over the past decade-plus has been a surge in the number of homes purchased by multiple-property owners, according to Teranet Inc., the private company that manages property registration records in Ontario. In 2011, multiple-property owners accounted for 15.3 per cent of home purchases, but by 2022 their share of the market reached 25.2 per cent of all homes sold in the province. According to Teranet’s Market Insight Report, the multiowner sh...
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 14:16
Forum: Property: Owning, Renting, Managing, Investing and Mortgaging
Topic: Housing Market 2024
Replies: 56
Views: 3421

Re: Housing Market 2024

A lot of the current policies are known to be counterproductive, e.g. rent controls and handouts.

Its an old supply and demand issue. We have exploding demand thanks to record population growth and are squeezing supply by imposing all sorts of construction constraints + high taxes. I am also seeing a lot of direct spending by the government which is always inefficient and ends up building houses people don't want. Would be more helpful if the government focused on the infrastructure but that won't happen because of Canada's stifling environmental laws. With the right conditions Mr Market could solve the problem quickly. Not overnight though; people would need to be trained.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 12:21
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: Record Keeping Practices: Scanned/Digital?
Replies: 31
Views: 916

Re: Record Keeping Practices: Scanned/Digital?

SQRT wrote: 23 Mar 2024 12:08 @ Mordko and Altared. Thanks. I’ve found printer scanners hard to use but I’ll give it another go.
Can be a bit painful but lately technology and software got better. You can get something thats easy to use and intuitive for $100, eg https://www.brother.ca/en/p/MFCJ1010DW.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 11:16
Forum: Taxing Situations
Topic: Record Keeping Practices: Scanned/Digital?
Replies: 31
Views: 916

Re: Record Keeping Practices: Scanned/Digital?

SQRT wrote: 23 Mar 2024 11:14
Bylo Selhi wrote: 21 Mar 2024 16:15
CRA wrote: Generally, you must keep originals of your paper documents. However, you can produce electronic images of these documents, known as imaging. The images can be kept in electronic files, on microfiche or on microfilm.
I interpret the bolded words to mean that 99.9% of the time they'll accept images. The 0.1% is wiggle room to play the paper card when the taxpayer gives them attitude, CRA suspects the image has been doctored or "enhanced," there's a total eclipse of the sun at the same time there's a blue moon, etc.
This may sound stupid, but how do you scan the images? Using a printer? Or a phone camera?
Either a scanner or a camera.
by Mordko
23 Mar 2024 09:03
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Currency Exchange
Replies: 78
Views: 6036

Re: Currency Exchange

tedster wrote: 23 Mar 2024 00:59 Mordko, you have confused me, Malaysian currency are ringits and where would Wise transfer the money? As a foreigner, I am not allowed a local bank account.
If you are asking about foreign ATM withdrawals (which wasn’t clear), then in addition to Wise, your other option is to use WealthSimple card. Its a debit card, so you would need to make sure the account has money before withdrawal (WS pays decent interest on your balance). There will be a standard ATM charge but WS does not charge exchange fees, so you will likely save 2%.

I had no idea how to spell “ringgits” and was too lazy to google. Mongolian currency has a cool ring to it so I tend to use that generically. Yes, it’s confusing. Sorry.
by Mordko
22 Mar 2024 23:10
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Currency Exchange
Replies: 78
Views: 6036

Re: Currency Exchange

I don't know if this has been covered up thread. If it has please forgive me. When I draw funds from my CIBC account in Malaysia, I am given a choice. "Skip conversion" and "proceed to conversipon ". I generally pick the latter, however, I have no idea what that means. I have not used this service with CIBC so its an educated guess based on HSBC experience. If you use bank’s “Global Service” or whatever they call it, and if you hold accounts in different currencies in different countries, they can move money back to Canada in one of two ways: - in the original currency, no conversion involved. Thats great, except you don’t really want Malaysian tugriks sitting in your Canadian account. - Convert to the currency of the d...
by Mordko
22 Mar 2024 19:00
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Currency Exchange
Replies: 78
Views: 6036

Re: Currency Exchange

That may be, but Wise and Revolut are always way more expensive than Atlantic Money, except for small amounts. From what I can see, Atlantic Money can only send GBP or EUR. So unless you have a source of income in those currencies it's not of much use to Canadians. Unless I'm missing something how do you use AM to convert CAD into GBP or EU? And if you have some GBP/EUR already, how do you set up an account from Canada, send that currency to AM in order to convert it CAD? Yes, I think you are correct. For now its only for converting from GBP or EUR. Very likely to expand to other currencies in the future. Personally I set up a British HSBC account with the help of HSBC Canada. That particular route is probably unavailable going forward. Pr...
by Mordko
22 Mar 2024 11:49
Forum: Financial News, Policy and Economics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 1010
Views: 155666

Re: Inflation

I understand M2 is a better, more comprehensive measure of money supply than M1. In general, money supply should trend up at a constant (and low) rate to allow our economy to grow. When it exploded in 2020, it was needed to deal with an economic shut-down, caused by the government. However “money printing” went on waay too long and was always a ticking time bomb. Eventually basic economics proved to be sound and inflation was triggered exactly as predicted by the monetary theory (and contrary to the rather disappointing claims by BoC). In 2023, BoC finally acted and we saw tightening, reflected in M2. Now we are seeing benefits in reduced inflation. There is always a lag of around a year or two. More recently M2 appears to have resumed grow...
by Mordko
22 Mar 2024 11:01
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Currency Exchange
Replies: 78
Views: 6036

Re: Currency Exchange

rocketboss wrote: 22 Mar 2024 10:39
Mordko wrote: 21 Mar 2024 19:05 Needed to transfer a mid-5 digit sum from GBP in the UK to Canada. Found that Atlantic Money provides the most cost-effective way of doing it. Wise seems to charge around 0.4%. Atlantic does not ding you on the rate at all but charges a flat fee of 3 GBP. The downside is that the transfer takes around 3 working days.
Wise seems to be way cheaper than revolut at 10.30am today....
50K --> C$84390(Revolut), C$85162(Wise)
That may be, but Wise and Revolut are always way more expensive than Atlantic Money, except for small amounts.

Wise is being sued by Atlantic Money for publishing what is supposed to be an exchange comparison tool and then excluding Atlantic Money. Very naughty.
by Mordko
21 Mar 2024 19:05
Forum: Under the Mattress: Protecting Your Money
Topic: Currency Exchange
Replies: 78
Views: 6036

Re: Currency Exchange

Needed to transfer a mid-5 digit sum from GBP in the UK to Canada. Found that Atlantic Money provides the most cost-effective way of doing it. Wise seems to charge around 0.4%. Atlantic does not ding you on the rate at all but charges a flat fee of 3 GBP. The downside is that the transfer takes around 3 working days.
by Mordko
19 Mar 2024 12:27
Forum: Financial Planning and Building Portfolios
Topic: Your favorite asset class
Replies: 55
Views: 3279

Re: Your favorite asset class

Settled or not, most Canadian pension funds are active investors.

I agree that all claims about returns and being in the top X percent are meaningless. Everyone calculates differently and there is no QA.